4 | APRIL 25 • 2024 
J
N

analysis

Iran’s Massive Attack was a 
Resounding Strategic Failure
T

he combined Iranian 
attack on Israel in 
the early hours of 
April 14, comprising 170 
UAVs, 30 cruise missiles 
and 120 ballistic missiles — 
more than 300 
aerial threats 
in total — was 
successfully 
intercepted 
by Israel 
and partner 
militaries. 
The fact that 
99% of the threats were 
intercepted means that a 
central pillar of Iranian force 
projection — its missile and 
UAV arsenals — has been 
proven to be no match for 
Israel’s Air Force, its multi-
layered air defense system, or 
for regional cooperation with 
allies.
For decades, Iranian 
military industries have 
been developing and 
producing missiles and 
UAV capabilities. These 
capabilities were used to arm 
Iran’s elite military force, the 
Islamic Revolutionary Guard 
Corps, and Iran’s proxies. 
While Iran often activates 
its proxies to attack its 
enemies, it has, until now, 
kept its own powder dry, 
based on the idea that the 
firepower Iran amassed 
on its own soil would 
keep Israel, Sunni Arab 
countries and the United 
States deterred, and would 
stop Israel from acting too 
fiercely to disrupt Iran’s 
hegemonic plans. 

Iran plans to surround 
Israel with a network of 
terror armies, break through 
to nuclear weapons and 
use the combination of 
its proxies, conventional 
weapons and nuclear 
umbrella to cause Israel 
to collapse by 2040 — 
according to the clerical 
regime’s own statements and 
officials. As such, its decision 
to directly attack Israel 
represents a major departure 
from this long-term strategy.
After the April 1 strike 
on Damascus that killed 
the IRGC Quds Force 
commander for Syria and 
Iraq, Mohammad Reza 
Zahedi, his deputy and 
five other IRGC officers, 
Iran decided that the time 
was ripe to break with its 
pattern of using proxies to 
weaken Israel and keep it 

bogged down in conflict, 
and to directly “teach Israel 
a lesson.”

ISRAEL’S MULTI-LAYERED 
AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM
But it is Iran that has now 
learned that Israel’s multi-
layered shield, fighter jets 
and partners can collectively 
neutralize its flagship 
conventional weapons 
program. 
Israel’s multi-layered air 
defense system relies on the 
Arrow 3, which intercepts 
ballistic missiles in space, 
Arrow 2, which operates in 
the upper atmosphere against 
ballistic missiles, David’s 
Sling intermediate-range 
system, which intercepts 
heavy rockets and short-
range ballistic missiles (of 
the type Iran and Syria have 
supplied to Hezbollah) as 

well as cruise missiles and 
drones, and Iron Dome, 
which shoots down rockets, 
cruise missiles and drones. 
Israel is expecting its Iron 
Beam laser interception 
system, which can shoot 
down rockets, mortars and 
UAVs, to become operational 
soon, and is developing an 
interceptor (Sky Sonic) for 
Iran’s future hypersonic 
missile (Fattah), which is in 
development. 
The Israeli Navy is also 
equipped with the advanced 
Barak 8 surface-to-air 
protection system, which can 
be activated from the sea. 
Iran has now witnessed 
Israel’s successful retaliation, 
and unlike Israel, Iranian air 
defenses are by comparison 
limited in scope. 
After its own failure on 
April 14, Iran now relies 
almost exclusively on 
Hezbollah for an ability to 
threaten Israel.
According to the IDF’s 
data, around 170 Iranian 
UAVs — a massive swarm 
— failed to cross into 
Israeli air space. Dozens 
were intercepted by IAF 
jets, Israel’s ground-based 
interceptors, and partner 
aircraft and air defense 
systems. 
According to international 
media reports, American 
and British jets took part 
in interceptions, along with 
the Jordanian and Saudi air 
defense systems. 
In addition, of the more 
than 30 cruise missiles Iran 

Yaakov 
Lappin
JNS.org

Iran says its air-launched Asef cruise missiles, unveiled in February 
2023, can hit targets at a range of 1,025 miles. 

SOURCE: TWITTER.

PURELY COMMENTARY

continued on page 7