8 | AUGUST 10 • 2023
PURELY COMMENTARY
W
hen we look at
Israel’s situation
— in domestic
politics and diplomatically
— no clear picture emerges;
we have to break it down into
components.
First, the
United States.
America is on
the eve of the
2024 presidential
race, with
President Joe
Biden fighting
for survival. He
has to deal with the ongoing
misconduct of his son Hunter.
His support for Ukraine has
been a source of growing
consternation with Republicans
and, in the Middle East, the
Saudis have turned their backs
on him and asked China to
mediate between them and
Iran.
He therefore needs an
impressive foreign policy
accomplishment. According
to New York Times columnist
Thomas Friedman, such an
accomplishment could come in
the form of the establishment
of ties between Riyadh
and Jerusalem, potentially
transforming the Middle East.
Biden said recently that some
progress has been made and a
deal could be in the offing.
Second component: Saudi
Arabia. U.S. National Security
Adviser Jake Sullivan visited
the kingdom recently and
offered Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman
security guarantees and U.S.
weapon systems in exchange
for a normalization deal with
Israel. The prince responded
favorably, so long as Israel
makes a gesture toward
the Palestinians, such as a
settlement moratorium or
issuing more permits for
Palestinian construction on
Area C. But such a gesture
cannot be made by the Israeli
government in its current
makeup.
Third component: Israel.
Late last month, the Knesset
passed a key piece of judicial
reform legislation — an
amendment that limits the
ability of courts to strike
down ministerial decisions
based on the criterion of
“reasonableness.” Why did the
coalition choose to pass this
part of the reform rather than
the measures dealing with the
appointment of justices and the
override clause that can nullify
court decisions? The answer
was given by Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
comments, from which it
appears that he wanted that
bill enacted so that Shas leader
Aryeh Deri could return to
the cabinet, after having been
disqualified on reasonableness
grounds.
The focus on Deri’s criminal
past has all but obscured his
rather moderate views on
foreign policy. By having the
bill passed and bringing him
back, Deri could serve as a
counterweight to Finance
Minister Bezalel Smotrich and
National Security Minister
Itamar Ben-Gvir, paving the
way for the gesture toward
the Palestinians. If Smotrich
or Ben-Gvir threaten to leave
the coalition, they would be
replaced by Benny Gantz and
his National Unity Party — a
maneuver that is already in the
works.
WHITE HOUSE EVENT?
Connecting these three com-
ponents into one big puzzle
will allow Biden to preside
over a peace-signing cere-
mony on the White House
lawn — an optic he needs. The
Saudis will get the weapons
and guarantees they have long
asked for, but the big winner
will be Israel: Not only will
it finally see an end to the
conflict with the Sunni world,
but it will also get access to
the massive Saudi economy,
and from there to the markets
in Indonesia, Malaysia and
Pakistan. Israel’s diplomatic,
economic and strategic stand-
ing will improve manyfold.
Connecting all these dots
won’t be easy and will depend
to a large extent on Netanyahu’s
actions. Former Mossad chief
Tamir Pardo has claimed that
Netanyahu secretly controls his
cabinet ministers despite the
fact that they appear to be loose
cannons and generate negative
headlines.
If that is the case, Netanyahu
would be able to deliver a
historic deal by every measure
and perhaps even bring
about an end to the current
turbulence rocking Israel.
Michael Oren is an American-born
Israeli historian, author, politician and
former ambassador to the United States.
Originally published by Israel Hayom.
Michael
Oren
JNS.org
opinion
Biden and Netanyahu Need a Deal
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with then-U.S. Vice
President Joe Biden at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem on
March 9, 2016.
AMOS BEN GERSHOM/GPO
THE BIG WINNER WILL BE ISRAEL:
NOT ONLY WILL IT FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE CONFLICT WITH THE
SUNNI WORLD, BUT IT WILL ALSO
GET ACCESS TO THE MASSIVE
SAUDI ECONOMY.
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