MARCH 31 • 2022 | 99

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HEALTH & WELLNESS

A Post-Pandemic World?

ASHLEY ZLATOPOLSKY CONTRIBUTING WRITER
T

wo years after COVID-
19 was first declared a 
global pandemic by the 
World Health Organization, 
medical experts are now 
hopeful the deadly virus will 
become endemic.
“When something is 
endemic, it’s essentially part 
of the population on what is 
a small, but consistent basis,” 
explains Dr. Steve McGraw, 
EMS medical director for 
the Oakland County Medical 
Control Authority and med-
ical director of Hatzalah of 
Michigan, a Jewish organi-
zation that provides rapid 
response to medical emergen-
cies in the Oak Park area.
In an endemic phase, over-
all COVID-19 cases would 
become static, rather than 
rising or falling. The virus 
could eventually become sim-
ilar to influenza, which has 
been classified as endemic for 
decades. Endemic diseases 
are also more predictable and 
manageable.
However, the classifications 
can sometimes be tricky to 
differentiate: to be considered 
an epidemic, an outbreak sees 
a sudden increase in cases. 

If that disease then spreads 
across several countries and 
affects a large number 
of people, then, like 
COVID-19, it 
becomes a pan-
demic. If the dis-
ease reaches an 
equilibrium, an 
endemic phase 
is likely.

CREATING AN 
ENDEMIC LABEL
Yet if COVID-19 
becomes endemic as 
experts predict and hope, 
what will that mean for the 
general population? Doctors 
and health organizations 
still believe a robust policy 
response will be necessary, 
as will regular vaccinations, 
potentially on a yearly basis.
McGraw says that before 
COVID-19 can be considered 
endemic, enough evidence 
has to be gathered on an 
international scale. “They’re 
going to want to see other 
populations, not just in the 
United States but throughout 
the world, reaching this kind 
of smoldering, steady state,” 
he explains of a decision to 

label COVID-19 as 
endemic.
In his opinion, how-
ever, McGraw argues that 
we’ve already reached the 
endemic phase of the virus 
that has now killed more than 
6 million people worldwide 
and more than 35,000 people 
in Michigan. “We have a very 
low frequency of transmis-
sion,” he explains. “Our posi-
tivity rate is under 5%. We are 
much less vulnerable than we 
were.”
McGraw says vaccines have 
done a tremendous job in 
reducing vulnerability to the 

deadly virus, while natural 
immunity has also done its 
part in potentially moving 
COVID-19 into an endemic 
phase. 
“We can’t go through a 
surge again like we did with-
out the virus manifesting 
some really dramatic muta-
tional change,” he continues. 
“It would almost need to be a 
different virus to really put us 
down again.”

COVID-19 may soon reach an endemic phase. 
What will that look like?

Dr. James 
Bragman

Dr. Steve McGraw

Dr. Russell 
Faust

