10 | MARCH 10 • 2022
opinion
If Putin Loses, History Wins
T
he conventional
wisdom is that
Vladimir Putin’s naked
aggression toward Ukraine
is taking us back to more
primitive times. Indeed, for
most of human
history, it was
raw power
that ruled. If a
tyrant wanted
something, he
just took it.
The
establishment
of international norms and
institutions in the wake of
World War II was an attempt
to regulate and minimize
this gratuitous application
of power. It didn’t always
work, of course, but at least
there was a sense that the
world was headed in a more
civilized direction.
Now we come to a critical
juncture: If Putin prevails
in his brutal land grab of
Ukraine, it clearly will set
us back. But if he doesn’t,
the outcome may well be
a reaffirmation of civilized
norms.
Here’s the encouraging
news: The reaction to Putin’s
aggression has been so severe
and brutal he may, in fact, not
prevail.
First, in terms of the
military campaign, Putin
has already been humbled
by the ferocious response of
the Ukrainian people and its
army. If Putin assumed he
would march into Ukraine
and depose its rulers within
days, he’s been hijacked by
reality. However this invasion
ends, he’s already lost some of
his winning mystique.
Second, his global isolation
is stunning. We’re not
hearing about intense debates
and disagreements among
Western powers on how to
respond to Putin’s aggression.
The Russian strongman may
have assumed he could easily
withstand any sanctions, as he
has in the past. The problem
is that he’s never seen
sanctions like these.
As the New York Times
reported about repercussions
in Russia, “The ruble cratered,
the stock market froze, and
the public rushed to withdraw
cash on Monday as Western
sanctions kicked in and
Russia awoke to uncertainty
and fear over the rapidly
spreading repercussions of
President Vladimir V
. Putin’s
invasion of Ukraine.”
These unprecedented
sanctions, which represent a
kind of financial war against
Russia, have given Putin a
taste of his own medicine:
You like aggression, we’ll give
you aggression, only ours will
be through banks, not tanks.
He’s been so enraged by
this financial aggression
that he declared that he was
putting his nuclear forces into
“special combat readiness”—
a heightened alert status that
harked back to some of the
most dangerous moments of
the Cold War.
There’s another reason
why this war has not gone
swimmingly for Putin: He
underestimated the extent
of domestic opposition. His
people have not bought the
propaganda that Ukraine
is a violent regime that has
aggressed Russia and needs
to be “de-Nazified.” No one
but his closest cronies believe
that, as he told Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett, he
had “no choice” but to invade.
His old-school, KGB-era
propaganda tactics are no
match for the liberating
universe of social media. As
internal opposition grows,
Putin will have no choice but
to smother it with brute force,
which will further alienate
him from a public that never
wanted this war against their
Ukrainian cousins.
If Ukraine continues to
resist and Putin calculates
that a decisive victory is no
longer realistic, we should
watch for any effort by Putin
to create an impression of
“victory.” He knows he can’t
afford to lose face.
His problem is that even
if he “conquers” Kyiv and
deposes Zelensky, he’ll be
too hated and isolated to
reap the fruits of that battle.
Ukrainians will be sufficiently
enraged to make any Russian
presence in Ukraine living
hell for years.
My hunch is that if the
financial pain inflicted on
Russia keeps increasing, Putin
will use the “negotiations” in
Belarus as a way to retreat
while saving face. That
retreat, however, will be hard
to camouflage.
It will signify not just a
defeat for tyrants everywhere,
but a victory for history.
David Suissa is editor-in-chief and
publisher of Tribe Media Corp, and
the Jewish Journal. He can be
reached at davids@jewishjournal.
com. This article was first published
by the Jewish Journal.
David Suissa
Jewish
Journal
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