8 | FEBRUARY 17 • 2022
opinion
U.S. Failure on Ukraine Could Lead
to a Conflagration in the Middle East, Asia
I
t is not clear yet whether
the Ukraine crisis will
end peacefully or wheth-
er war will again erupt on
European soil. Nevertheless,
several observations are in
order.
For years,
many in the
West have cel-
ebrated the
reduced role of
military force
in internation-
al relations.
Scholars herald-
ed “the end of history” and
the reign of a norm-based
international liberal order.
Yet, whatever progress there
was, human nature did not
change. As Thucydides aptly
pointed out, fear is a basic
and powerful instinct.
A fearful Russia amassed
many troops along the
Ukrainian border to draw
U.S. attention to its demands.
Indeed, the tacit threat of
military invasion got the
United States to listen to
Moscow’s security concerns.
Russia wants to be treat-
ed like the Soviet Union,
so it wants a voice in the
European security structure.
The turn of events was not
a surprise to the old-fash-
ioned, still clinging to a
real-politic view of world
politics, particularly after
Russia swallowed Crimea
and encouraged irredentism
in eastern Ukraine.
In the face of the expan-
sion of NATO and the
European Union eastward
and the Western encour-
agement of the color rev-
olutions, Russia could not
remain aloof. On the con-
trary, the democratic crusade
frightened a Russia that was
neither invited to join nor
consulted.
Russia also resurrected
the notions of buffer zones
and spheres of influence.
It signaled that it might
resort to violence to secure
larger margins of security,
to enforce its demand that
states along its border, nom-
inally independent, remain
within its security orbit.
Considering past invasions
from the West, Russian fears
are reasonable. America’s
sensibilities leading to the
Monroe Doctrine were sim-
ilar.
The Ukraine crisis reminds
us of the limits of diplomacy.
The United States and its
European allies only embold-
ened Russia by reiterating
their strong commitment
to diplomacy. It is hardly
effective without a credible
option to use force.
Ukraine happens to be the
first serious international test
for the United States after
Afghanistan. Washington,
unwilling to get involved
militarily, has only warned of
dire economic consequences,
with little impact so far on
Russian President Vladimir
Putin. A slip of the tongue by
President Joe Biden assured
him that even a “limited
incursion” would be tolerable
from the U.S. point of view.
But Putin wants more, and it
remains to be seen who will
prevail in this game of poker.
Everybody, friends and
foes of America alike, looks
at Washington and sees a
feeble administration. The
crisis confirms the observed
trend of America’s decline in
global affairs. As in the past,
the United States could leap
out of its lethargy and act
forcefully, but the world sees
such a scenario as unlike-
ly, and perception dictates
behavior.
Washington would prob-
ably like an opportunity
to reset relations with
Moscow and dramatically
change the global balance
of power. Instead, perhaps
America should enlist Putin
to push back against China,
America’s true international
challenge. It would seem
advisable to resolve the U.S.-
Russia tensions over Eastern
Europe, allowing Washington
to focus on its primary chal-
lenge.
The United States should
entice Russia to rejoin
Western civilization. After
all, Russia is culturally part
of the West in many ways,
including its literature,
music, ballet and Christian
heritage. In addition, the
United States could rec-
ognize Crimea as Russian
territory and lift sanctions
against Russia.
The West could accept the
“Finlandization” of Ukraine
to allay Russia’s fears.
Moscow tolerated a demo-
cratic Finland in the Russian
security orbit during the
Cold War. Détente with the
United States might be pref-
erable in Moscow over an
embrace by a rising China.
Switching sides could signal
Russian centrality and prow-
ess in global affairs.
For Europe, the crisis is
an eye-opener. Despite talk
of a European army and
“strategic autonomy,” Europe
still needs an American
Efraim Inbar
PURELY COMMENTARY
Ukrainian troops seen during exercises in Kyiv, Jan. 22, 2022.
SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES VIA JTA
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