8 | FEBRUARY 17 • 2022 

opinion
U.S. Failure on Ukraine Could Lead
to a Conflagration in the Middle East, Asia 
I

t is not clear yet whether 
the Ukraine crisis will 
end peacefully or wheth-
er war will again erupt on 
European soil. Nevertheless, 
several observations are in 
order.
For years, 
many in the 
West have cel-
ebrated the 
reduced role of 
military force 
in internation-
al relations. 
Scholars herald-
ed “the end of history” and 
the reign of a norm-based 
international liberal order. 
Yet, whatever progress there 
was, human nature did not 
change. As Thucydides aptly 
pointed out, fear is a basic 
and powerful instinct.
A fearful Russia amassed 
many troops along the 
Ukrainian border to draw 
U.S. attention to its demands. 
Indeed, the tacit threat of 
military invasion got the 
United States to listen to 
Moscow’s security concerns.
Russia wants to be treat-
ed like the Soviet Union, 
so it wants a voice in the 
European security structure.
The turn of events was not 
a surprise to the old-fash-
ioned, still clinging to a 
real-politic view of world 
politics, particularly after 
Russia swallowed Crimea 
and encouraged irredentism 
in eastern Ukraine.
In the face of the expan-
sion of NATO and the 
European Union eastward 
and the Western encour-

agement of the color rev-
olutions, Russia could not 
remain aloof. On the con-
trary, the democratic crusade 
frightened a Russia that was 
neither invited to join nor 
consulted.
Russia also resurrected 
the notions of buffer zones 
and spheres of influence. 
It signaled that it might 
resort to violence to secure 
larger margins of security, 
to enforce its demand that 
states along its border, nom-
inally independent, remain 
within its security orbit. 
Considering past invasions 
from the West, Russian fears 
are reasonable. America’s 
sensibilities leading to the 
Monroe Doctrine were sim-
ilar.
The Ukraine crisis reminds 
us of the limits of diplomacy. 
The United States and its 
European allies only embold-
ened Russia by reiterating 
their strong commitment 
to diplomacy. It is hardly 

effective without a credible 
option to use force.
Ukraine happens to be the 
first serious international test 
for the United States after 
Afghanistan. Washington, 
unwilling to get involved 
militarily, has only warned of 
dire economic consequences, 
with little impact so far on 
Russian President Vladimir 
Putin. A slip of the tongue by 
President Joe Biden assured 
him that even a “limited 
incursion” would be tolerable 
from the U.S. point of view. 
But Putin wants more, and it 
remains to be seen who will 
prevail in this game of poker.
Everybody, friends and 
foes of America alike, looks 
at Washington and sees a 
feeble administration. The 
crisis confirms the observed 
trend of America’s decline in 
global affairs. As in the past, 
the United States could leap 
out of its lethargy and act 
forcefully, but the world sees 
such a scenario as unlike-

ly, and perception dictates 
behavior.
Washington would prob-
ably like an opportunity 
to reset relations with 
Moscow and dramatically 
change the global balance 
of power. Instead, perhaps 
America should enlist Putin 
to push back against China, 
America’s true international 
challenge. It would seem 
advisable to resolve the U.S.-
Russia tensions over Eastern 
Europe, allowing Washington 
to focus on its primary chal-
lenge.
The United States should 
entice Russia to rejoin 
Western civilization. After 
all, Russia is culturally part 
of the West in many ways, 
including its literature, 
music, ballet and Christian 
heritage. In addition, the 
United States could rec-
ognize Crimea as Russian 
territory and lift sanctions 
against Russia.
The West could accept the 
“Finlandization” of Ukraine 
to allay Russia’s fears. 
Moscow tolerated a demo-
cratic Finland in the Russian 
security orbit during the 
Cold War. Détente with the 
United States might be pref-
erable in Moscow over an 
embrace by a rising China. 
Switching sides could signal 
Russian centrality and prow-
ess in global affairs.
For Europe, the crisis is 
an eye-opener. Despite talk 
of a European army and 
“strategic autonomy,” Europe 
still needs an American 

Efraim Inbar

PURELY COMMENTARY

Ukrainian troops seen during exercises in Kyiv, Jan. 22, 2022. 

SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES VIA JTA

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