PURELY COMMENTARY

10 | NOVEMBER 25 • 2021 

opinion
Why Is Iran Returning to the 
Negotiating Table?
A

fter several months 
of uncertainty 
and delay, Iran 
has announced its return 
in November to talks in 
Vienna regarding a return 
to the 2015 
nuclear deal. 
The question 
is, why? This 
is an uncondi-
tional return, 
contrary to the 
position previ-
ously expressed 
by Iran, which demanded 
an easing of sanctions as a 
precondition to resuming 
negotiations. The Iranian 
concession is an apparent 
American success.
The reason Iran is return-
ing to the talks is simple: the 
present leadership in Tehran 
has a clear interest in return-
ing to the 2015 agreement 
because it is a good agree-
ment for Iran, which seeks 
to develop nuclear weapons. 
The Iranians understood that 
the nuclear deal was good for 
them and that it is now even 
more so in light of the rapid 
progress in their enrichment 
program.
The real question, then, is 
why did Iran delay?
The delay may have been 
a negotiating tactic on the 
Iranians’ part, designed to 
elicit concessions from the 
Americans. Moreover, the 
Iranians knew it was safe to 
delay the resumption of talks 
because they understood 
that no U.S. military option 

existed, neither in the cur-
rent administration nor the 
previous one. The absence 
of a military option was the 
main weakness the Iranians 
sensed when the previous 
U.S. administration with-
drew from the nuclear deal 
in 2018.
It was a significant mistake 
to withdraw from the deal 
without charting a viable 
military option and demon-
strating the determination 
to use it if necessary. The 
Iranians realized that no 
matter what they did, with 
the exception of U.S. or other 
intelligence services detect-
ing the actual assembly of a 
bomb, the United States was 
unwilling to use military 
force to stop the nuclear 
project.
The Iranian perception 
that there is no military 
option on the table will 
also be their basic assump-
tion in future negotiations. 
The Iranians know that the 
United States has no alter-
native but to return to the 
agreement, so they will not 
rush to fold — and may first 
try to remove sanctions and 
gain other economic bene-
fits.
The Iranians also observed 
that after launching drone 
attacks against an American 
base in al-Tanf in eastern 
Syria last month, the United 
States failed to respond in 
any serious manner. Even 
though there were no casual-
ties, this event demonstrated 

Iran’s determination and 
reading of American behav-
ior. This lack of an American 
response signaled that the 
United States wants to return 
to negotiations at almost any 
cost. But, unfortunately, it 
also might lead Iran to con-
clude that it can continue its 
aggressive behavior in the 
Middle East as long as there 
are prospects for further 
talks.
Further, the perceived 
American weakness will 
motivate the Iranians to run 
out the clock in negotiations. 
The talks themselves give 
the Iranians more freedom 
of action as they restrict the 
ability of the United States 
to respond to provocations, 
including even elementary 
acts of force protection, and 
thus harm U.S. deterrence.

ISRAEL’S POSITION
The United States empha-
sizes that the return to the 
nuclear agreement is only 
a first step, after which it 
intends to enter into talks 
aimed at a better and longer 
deal. However, the chances 
of reaching such an agree-
ment are nil because the 
United States has no leverage 
over Iran.
Iran could drag the talks 
out again and things could 
end back at square one. 
Moreover, Iran now openly 
threatens that the talks will 
fail unless the United States 
offers guarantees that would 
bind future administrations’ 

behavior. Any such attempt 
to enshrine the agreement 
as a formal treaty, however, 
would require ratification 
by the Senate; the neces-
sary two-thirds majority is 
nowhere in sight.
Israel cannot and should 
not interfere with the talks. 
Still, Israel must obtain from 
the United States a commit-
ment to complete the nego-
tiations in a short time and 
not let the Iranian procrasti-
nate for months.
Israel must learn what 
the U.S. response will be if 
it turns out that there is no 
chance of reaching an agree-
ment, and what the timetable 
might be for attempting to 
reach a longer and stronger 
deal.
Either way, Israel must 
prepare for the possibility it 
will have to defend itself — 
because a nuclear Iran is not 
an option Israel can accept. 
As has been declared by a 
few American presidents, 
Israel should be able to 
defend itself, by itself.
An effort to prevent Iran 
from going nuclear will not 
be simple and will perhaps 
even be dangerous—but it is 
necessary. 

IDF Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror 

was national security adviser to 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 

Netanyahu and chairman of Israel’s 

National Security Council (April 

2011-November 2013). This article 

was first published by the Jerusalem 

Institute of Strategy and Security.

Yaakov 
Amidror 
JNS.org

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