PURELY COMMENTARY

10 | NOVEMBER 25 • 2021

opinion
Why Is Iran Returning to the
Negotiating Table?
A

fter several months
of uncertainty
and delay, Iran
has announced its return
in November to talks in
Vienna regarding a return
to the 2015
nuclear deal.
The question
is, why? This
is an uncondi-
tional return,
contrary to the
position previ-
ously expressed
by Iran, which demanded
an easing of sanctions as a
precondition to resuming
negotiations. The Iranian
concession is an apparent
American success.
The reason Iran is return-
ing to the talks is simple: the
present leadership in Tehran
has a clear interest in return-
ing to the 2015 agreement
because it is a good agree-
ment for Iran, which seeks
to develop nuclear weapons.
The Iranians understood that
the nuclear deal was good for
them and that it is now even
more so in light of the rapid
progress in their enrichment
program.
The real question, then, is
why did Iran delay?
The delay may have been
a negotiating tactic on the
Iranians’ part, designed to
elicit concessions from the
Americans. Moreover, the
Iranians knew it was safe to
delay the resumption of talks
because they understood
that no U.S. military option

existed, neither in the cur-
rent administration nor the
previous one. The absence
of a military option was the
main weakness the Iranians
sensed when the previous
U.S. administration with-
drew from the nuclear deal
in 2018.
It was a significant mistake
to withdraw from the deal
without charting a viable
military option and demon-
strating the determination
to use it if necessary. The
Iranians realized that no
matter what they did, with
the exception of U.S. or other
intelligence services detect-
ing the actual assembly of a
bomb, the United States was
unwilling to use military
force to stop the nuclear
project.
The Iranian perception
that there is no military
option on the table will
also be their basic assump-
tion in future negotiations.
The Iranians know that the
United States has no alter-
native but to return to the
agreement, so they will not
rush to fold — and may first
try to remove sanctions and
gain other economic bene-
fits.
The Iranians also observed
that after launching drone
attacks against an American
base in al-Tanf in eastern
Syria last month, the United
States failed to respond in
any serious manner. Even
though there were no casual-
ties, this event demonstrated

Iran’s determination and
reading of American behav-
ior. This lack of an American
response signaled that the
United States wants to return
to negotiations at almost any
cost. But, unfortunately, it
also might lead Iran to con-
clude that it can continue its
aggressive behavior in the
Middle East as long as there
are prospects for further
talks.
Further, the perceived
American weakness will
motivate the Iranians to run
out the clock in negotiations.
The talks themselves give
the Iranians more freedom
of action as they restrict the
ability of the United States
to respond to provocations,
including even elementary
acts of force protection, and
thus harm U.S. deterrence.

ISRAEL’S POSITION
The United States empha-
sizes that the return to the
nuclear agreement is only
a first step, after which it
intends to enter into talks
aimed at a better and longer
deal. However, the chances
of reaching such an agree-
ment are nil because the
United States has no leverage
over Iran.
Iran could drag the talks
out again and things could
end back at square one.
Moreover, Iran now openly
threatens that the talks will
fail unless the United States
offers guarantees that would
bind future administrations’

behavior. Any such attempt
to enshrine the agreement
as a formal treaty, however,
would require ratification
by the Senate; the neces-
sary two-thirds majority is
nowhere in sight.
Israel cannot and should
not interfere with the talks.
Still, Israel must obtain from
the United States a commit-
ment to complete the nego-
tiations in a short time and
not let the Iranian procrasti-
nate for months.
Israel must learn what
the U.S. response will be if
it turns out that there is no
chance of reaching an agree-
ment, and what the timetable
might be for attempting to
reach a longer and stronger
deal.
Either way, Israel must
prepare for the possibility it
will have to defend itself —
because a nuclear Iran is not
an option Israel can accept.
As has been declared by a
few American presidents,
Israel should be able to
defend itself, by itself.
An effort to prevent Iran
from going nuclear will not
be simple and will perhaps
even be dangerous—but it is
necessary.

IDF Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

was national security adviser to

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu and chairman of Israel’s

National Security Council (April

2011-November 2013). This article

was first published by the Jerusalem

Institute of Strategy and Security.

Yaakov
Amidror
JNS.org

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