6 | AUGUST 26 • 2021
1942 - 2021
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analysis
The Implications of the Fall of Kabul
I
n the wake of the sweep-
ing Taliban victory in
Afghanistan, the region now
faces the symbolic impact of
these dramatic scenes of U.S.
failure unprec-
edented since
Vietnam. To
thwart the notion
that resurgent
Islamism — in
one of its most
extreme forms —
is now victorious,
the United States must now
reassert its commitment to tra-
ditional allies.
They, in turn, need to draw
closer together — specifically,
in the face of Iran’s defiance —
in an alignment of like-minded
forces of stability, much as the
Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) did after
the fall of Saigon. Israel should
position itself to play a useful
role in such an alignment.
THE LONG SHADOW
A tragic event of great symbolic
importance is now upon us.
Despite a deliberate press black-
out (exemplified by the way the
Bagram Airbase was cleared
out in the middle of the night),
the Biden administration could
not avoid the long, sad shadow
of “the last helicopter from
Saigon,
” which now also exem-
plifies the fate of Afghanistan.
The Taliban have marched
into Kabul, and while they
would be wise to let the
Americans leave safely, they
are bound to slaughter those
left behind who stood against
them. They will once again
enslave women and deny girls
education; and will reinstitute
the horrors of their pre-2001
regime, in the name of their
interpretation of Sharia law.
If the perception of an
Islamist ascendancy takes hold,
the implications for the region,
and for the world, are liable
to be profound. Israel should
do its part in bracing for the
impact.
Twenty years ago, the “Global
War on Terror” seemed to get
off to a promising start. Taliban
rule in Afghanistan was quickly
overthrown, for what was at
the time a minimal cost: the
Americans, their allies and the
Afghans of the “northern coa-
lition” seemed to be welcomed
as liberators. But Afghanistan,
which had frustrated British
conquerors in the 19th century
and did much to undo Soviet
power in the 20th, turned out
to be easier to conquer than to
reform.
Tribalism, corruption, poor
governance, abject poverty,
virulent variations of Islamist
extremism — all added up to
a toxic mix that no amount of
American firepower, creative
energy or piles of public money
(the full cost of the “longest
war” is estimated at $2 trillion)
could fix. President Joe Biden’s
decision to pull out is thus
understandable and perhaps
inevitable. But it doesn’t lessen
the anticipated consequences of
the fall of Kabul.
The direct strategic impact of
what happens in Afghanistan,
landlocked between Pakistan,
central Asia and Iran, may be
limited. Russian policy in “the
near abroad”— and Chinese
Eran Lerman
JNS.org
PURELY COMMENTARY
continued on page 8