6 | AUGUST 26 • 2021 

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analysis
The Implications of the Fall of Kabul
I

n the wake of the sweep-
ing Taliban victory in 
Afghanistan, the region now 
faces the symbolic impact of 
these dramatic scenes of U.S. 
failure unprec-
edented since 
Vietnam. To 
thwart the notion 
that resurgent 
Islamism — in 
one of its most 
extreme forms — 
is now victorious, 
the United States must now 
reassert its commitment to tra-
ditional allies. 
 They, in turn, need to draw 
closer together — specifically, 
in the face of Iran’s defiance — 
in an alignment of like-minded 
forces of stability, much as the 
Association of Southeast Asian 
Nations (ASEAN) did after 

the fall of Saigon. Israel should 
position itself to play a useful 
role in such an alignment.

THE LONG SHADOW
A tragic event of great symbolic 
importance is now upon us. 
Despite a deliberate press black-
out (exemplified by the way the 
Bagram Airbase was cleared 
out in the middle of the night), 
the Biden administration could 
not avoid the long, sad shadow 
of “the last helicopter from 
Saigon,
” which now also exem-
plifies the fate of Afghanistan. 
 The Taliban have marched 
into Kabul, and while they 
would be wise to let the 
Americans leave safely, they 
are bound to slaughter those 
left behind who stood against 
them. They will once again 
enslave women and deny girls 

education; and will reinstitute 
the horrors of their pre-2001 
regime, in the name of their 
interpretation of Sharia law.
If the perception of an 
Islamist ascendancy takes hold, 
the implications for the region, 
and for the world, are liable 
to be profound. Israel should 
do its part in bracing for the 
impact.
Twenty years ago, the “Global 
War on Terror” seemed to get 
off to a promising start. Taliban 
rule in Afghanistan was quickly 
overthrown, for what was at 
the time a minimal cost: the 
Americans, their allies and the 
Afghans of the “northern coa-
lition” seemed to be welcomed 
as liberators. But Afghanistan, 
which had frustrated British 
conquerors in the 19th century 
and did much to undo Soviet 

power in the 20th, turned out 
to be easier to conquer than to 
reform.
Tribalism, corruption, poor 
governance, abject poverty, 
virulent variations of Islamist 
extremism — all added up to 
a toxic mix that no amount of 
American firepower, creative 
energy or piles of public money 
(the full cost of the “longest 
war” is estimated at $2 trillion) 
could fix. President Joe Biden’s 
decision to pull out is thus 
understandable and perhaps 
inevitable. But it doesn’t lessen 
the anticipated consequences of 
the fall of Kabul.
The direct strategic impact of 
what happens in Afghanistan, 
landlocked between Pakistan, 
central Asia and Iran, may be 
limited. Russian policy in “the 
near abroad”— and Chinese 

Eran Lerman
JNS.org

PURELY COMMENTARY

continued on page 8

