10 | AUGUST 12 • 2021 

analysis
The Coming Earthquake
G

iant fissures are 
emerging from just 
beneath the earth’s 
surface throughout the Middle 
East, and Israel is bracing for 
the inevitable 
eruption. The 
United States 
had better wake 
up, too, because 
the aftershocks 
will be felt here, 
and they will not 
be mild.
In a briefing to Israeli 
President Isaac Herzog, the 
Israeli Institute for National 
Security Studies’ Professor 
Manuel Tratjenberg stated 
that Tehran has accumulated 
immense knowledge of great-
er levels of highly enriched 
uranium and uranium metal 
production, operating more 
and more advanced centrifug-
es. He also expressed concern 
that the talks in Vienna are 
leading nowhere, buying more 
time for Iran.
Iran, in the meantime, has 
insisted that there would be 
no more talks until their new 
hardline president, Ebrahim 
Raisi, assumed office on Aug. 
5. In order to sweeten the pot 
to induce Iran to sit down to 
the negotiating table, we have 
already rewarded the Islamic 
Republic. Robert Malley, the 
U.S. special envoy to Iran, gave 
a rather revealing interview on 
the PBS NewsHour on April 2, 
basically blaming the United 
States for leaving the deal 
during the Trump years.
Malley said, “The United 
States will have to lift those 
sanctions that were inconsis-
tent with the nuclear deal of 
2015, so that Iran enjoys those 
benefits that were part of the 

deal.
” This, despite the fact that 
U.S. Secretary of State Antony 
Blinken, when he spoke at his 
confirmation hearing before 
the Senate Foreign Relations 
Committee on Jan. 21, said we 
will have a “longer, stronger 
deal.
”
Malley also said that “ver-
ification will be easily deter-
mined by the International 
Atomic Energy Administration 
(IAEA).
” This does not con-
form at all to the reality on the 
ground in Iran. Last month, 
the story emerged that Iran has 
been restricting access to the 
nuclear inspectors in its main 
power plant in Natanz. When 
they have been let in, the IAEA 
nuclear watchdogs have found 
suspicious particles at several 
undeclared sites. “They are 
provoking us,
” said one Western 
official who closely monitors 
the IAEA.
Getting back to his April 
2 interview, Malley cites the 
progress that Iran has made 
toward a nuclear bomb since 
the United States, under former 
President Donald Trump, with-
drew from the deal as the rea-
son for the necessity of return-
ing to the deal. But correlation 
is not causation.
We had been promised 
by former President Barack 
Obama that once this deal was 
agreed to, Iran would be wel-
comed back into the interna-
tional community, its maligned 
behavior curbed. The United 
States did not announce its 
withdrawal from the nuclear 
deal until May of 2018. They 
had three full years to prove to 
the world that they had become 
civilized with our inducement 
of $150 billion as a windfall for 
the agreement in 2015.

SPREADING TERROR
None of this windfall has 
trickled down to the impov-
erished people in Iran but 
has been used to arm Iran’s 
Islamic Revolutionary Guard 
Corps, Hezbollah in Lebanon, 
Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis 
in Yemen, and has simply 
made the Middle East more 
volatile.

In Lebanon, which has 
become nothing more than a 
puppet state of Iran, billion-
aire businessman Najib Mikati 
has just been appointed as 
the prime minister-designate 
and has the firm backing of 
Hezbollah. One cannot count 
on Makati to cleanse the state 
of its corruption and cronyism 
that has entered into every 
sphere of life there, and the 
throats of the good people 
of Lebanon remain under 
Hezbollah’s and Iran’s firm 
boot.
Today, the streets of Iran are 
erupting. What began as an 
isolated demonstration because 
the government absconded with 
water during the hot summer 
and because of the horrific 
summer drought in Khuzestan 
province has spread rapidly 
throughout the country. In 
Khuzestan, we know that peo-
ple have been murdered on the 
street, and that internet service 
was cut and there was a news 

blackout from that region.
People are being heard in 
Tehran chanting, “Shame! 
Khomeini, let go of this coun-
try!” and “Mullahs, get lost!”
This is profoundly reminis-
cent of 2009, when millions 
of protestors were out on the 
streets holding up signs that 
read, “Obama, Where Are 
You?” And the Obama White 

House ignored their anguished 
cries simply to get a horribly 
flawed nuclear deal.
If it is truly serious about 
wanting stability and peace in 
the region, the United States 
should support these brave 
protesters. We did it when we 
stared down the former Soviet 
Union, utilizing the human-
rights issue of the Soviet Jewry 
movement as leverage. We now 
have that opportunity again not 
to ignore the courageous peo-
ple in Iran and throughout the 
region that are suffering under 
Iranian militias and proxies.
Raisi, the notorious 
“Butcher of Tehran” is about 
to assume office. Iran is per-
haps, mere weeks away from 
total nuclear breakout. The 
tremors of the earthquake are 
already being felt.
What are we waiting for? 

Sarah N. Stern is founder and pres-
ident of the Endowment for Middle 
East Truth (EMET), a think tank and 
policy institute in Washington, D.C.

Sarah N. 
Stern

PURELY COMMENTARY

“IRAN HAS BEEN RESTRICTING 
ACCESS TO THE NUCLEAR 
INSPECTORS IN ITS MAIN POWER 

PLANT IN NATANZ.”

— SARAH N. STERN

