10 | AUGUST 12 • 2021
analysis
The Coming Earthquake
G
iant fissures are
emerging from just
beneath the earth’s
surface throughout the Middle
East, and Israel is bracing for
the inevitable
eruption. The
United States
had better wake
up, too, because
the aftershocks
will be felt here,
and they will not
be mild.
In a briefing to Israeli
President Isaac Herzog, the
Israeli Institute for National
Security Studies’ Professor
Manuel Tratjenberg stated
that Tehran has accumulated
immense knowledge of great-
er levels of highly enriched
uranium and uranium metal
production, operating more
and more advanced centrifug-
es. He also expressed concern
that the talks in Vienna are
leading nowhere, buying more
time for Iran.
Iran, in the meantime, has
insisted that there would be
no more talks until their new
hardline president, Ebrahim
Raisi, assumed office on Aug.
5. In order to sweeten the pot
to induce Iran to sit down to
the negotiating table, we have
already rewarded the Islamic
Republic. Robert Malley, the
U.S. special envoy to Iran, gave
a rather revealing interview on
the PBS NewsHour on April 2,
basically blaming the United
States for leaving the deal
during the Trump years.
Malley said, “The United
States will have to lift those
sanctions that were inconsis-
tent with the nuclear deal of
2015, so that Iran enjoys those
benefits that were part of the
deal.
” This, despite the fact that
U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken, when he spoke at his
confirmation hearing before
the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee on Jan. 21, said we
will have a “longer, stronger
deal.
”
Malley also said that “ver-
ification will be easily deter-
mined by the International
Atomic Energy Administration
(IAEA).
” This does not con-
form at all to the reality on the
ground in Iran. Last month,
the story emerged that Iran has
been restricting access to the
nuclear inspectors in its main
power plant in Natanz. When
they have been let in, the IAEA
nuclear watchdogs have found
suspicious particles at several
undeclared sites. “They are
provoking us,
” said one Western
official who closely monitors
the IAEA.
Getting back to his April
2 interview, Malley cites the
progress that Iran has made
toward a nuclear bomb since
the United States, under former
President Donald Trump, with-
drew from the deal as the rea-
son for the necessity of return-
ing to the deal. But correlation
is not causation.
We had been promised
by former President Barack
Obama that once this deal was
agreed to, Iran would be wel-
comed back into the interna-
tional community, its maligned
behavior curbed. The United
States did not announce its
withdrawal from the nuclear
deal until May of 2018. They
had three full years to prove to
the world that they had become
civilized with our inducement
of $150 billion as a windfall for
the agreement in 2015.
SPREADING TERROR
None of this windfall has
trickled down to the impov-
erished people in Iran but
has been used to arm Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps, Hezbollah in Lebanon,
Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis
in Yemen, and has simply
made the Middle East more
volatile.
In Lebanon, which has
become nothing more than a
puppet state of Iran, billion-
aire businessman Najib Mikati
has just been appointed as
the prime minister-designate
and has the firm backing of
Hezbollah. One cannot count
on Makati to cleanse the state
of its corruption and cronyism
that has entered into every
sphere of life there, and the
throats of the good people
of Lebanon remain under
Hezbollah’s and Iran’s firm
boot.
Today, the streets of Iran are
erupting. What began as an
isolated demonstration because
the government absconded with
water during the hot summer
and because of the horrific
summer drought in Khuzestan
province has spread rapidly
throughout the country. In
Khuzestan, we know that peo-
ple have been murdered on the
street, and that internet service
was cut and there was a news
blackout from that region.
People are being heard in
Tehran chanting, “Shame!
Khomeini, let go of this coun-
try!” and “Mullahs, get lost!”
This is profoundly reminis-
cent of 2009, when millions
of protestors were out on the
streets holding up signs that
read, “Obama, Where Are
You?” And the Obama White
House ignored their anguished
cries simply to get a horribly
flawed nuclear deal.
If it is truly serious about
wanting stability and peace in
the region, the United States
should support these brave
protesters. We did it when we
stared down the former Soviet
Union, utilizing the human-
rights issue of the Soviet Jewry
movement as leverage. We now
have that opportunity again not
to ignore the courageous peo-
ple in Iran and throughout the
region that are suffering under
Iranian militias and proxies.
Raisi, the notorious
“Butcher of Tehran” is about
to assume office. Iran is per-
haps, mere weeks away from
total nuclear breakout. The
tremors of the earthquake are
already being felt.
What are we waiting for?
Sarah N. Stern is founder and pres-
ident of the Endowment for Middle
East Truth (EMET), a think tank and
policy institute in Washington, D.C.
Sarah N.
Stern
PURELY COMMENTARY
“IRAN HAS BEEN RESTRICTING
ACCESS TO THE NUCLEAR
INSPECTORS IN ITS MAIN POWER
PLANT IN NATANZ.”
— SARAH N. STERN