views essay Demographic Deceit Fudging population numbers discredits Palestinian cause. O ne moment, the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, sits stunned by Arab claims that there’s population parity between Jews and Arabs west of the Jordan River. The next, such demographic Robert Sklar Contributing Editor saber-rattling is author- itatively rebuked. Still, the matter of demographics within the contours of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains. The Palestinian Authority governs Palestinian-led areas of the West Bank via Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah faction. The P.A. claims 3 million Palestinian Arabs live in the West Bank, made up of the biblical Jewish lands of Judea and Samaria. That number, along with Israel’s 1.8 million Arab citizens and the 2 million Palestinian Arabs who live in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, puts the total Arab population west of the Jordan River at 6.8 million. The number of Jews in the State of Israel and the Israeli settlements in the West Bank totals 6.99 million, according to Jewish Virtual Library. In this demographic orbit, the Jewish- Arab population difference is less than 200,000. ANOTHER TAKE Yoram Ettinger, a respected Israeli demographer, diplomat and expert on U.S.- Israel relations, insists there are only 1.85 million Palestinians in the West Bank today along with 1.5 million Yoram Ettinger Palestinians in Gaza. Ettinger brings cred- ibility as cofounder of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG), an indepen- dent team of Israeli and U.S. research- ers. The P.A. is widely known to be polit- ically corrupt and to purposely cook its data to accentuate the alleged hardship imposed by Israel’s defense-driven mili- tary controls. On March 26, report- ed Jerusalem Post col- umnist Caroline Glick, the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee considered P.A. population findings as presented by two Caroline Glick Israeli government rep- resentatives with over- sight in the Palestinian territories. Committee chair Avi Dichter responded that the data suggest the Palestinian population has tripled over the last 25 years, something not sup- ported empirically. Way back in 2004, Glick reported, the AIDRG audited P.A. data en route to con- cluding the P.A. grossly exaggerated the number of Palestinians under its purview by 50 percent thanks to demographic sleight of hand. Key to such fraudulence is the claim of an annual immigration trend of 14,000 people into the West Bank; in fact, the AIDRG found the P.A. instead has experienced high net annual emigration out of the territory. TROUBLING TRAIT Demographic chicanery seems a way of life for the P.A., leading to all sorts of practical issues related to living conditions. vative, in a March 29 column. Glick, a Chicago native and Harvard graduate who made aliyah to Israel in 1991, went on to assess whether the fear of population parity west of the Jordan River poses any “existential threat to Israel’s Jewish character.” The P.A. “will never make peace with Israel,” she main- tained. Glick favors Israel incorporating the West Bank, which, she argues, would still leave Israel with a two-thirds Jewish majority. In a March 20 blog on www. TheEttingerReport.com, Ettinger indi- cated, “In 2018, Israel is the sole Western democracy and modern economy” that “benefits from a tailwind of fertility and net-migration, providing for sustained economic growth with minimal foreign labor.” CHALLENGE LINGERS Demographic chicanery seems a way of life for the P.A., leading to all sorts of practical issues related to living condi- tions. For example, something as basic as sufficient water and power can’t be prop- erly allocated if the population total is in doubt. For its part, Israel must shore up its commitment to helping meet such basic Palestinian needs. Israel’s strategizing on behalf of ordi- nary Palestinians dependent on Israeli infrastructure support becomes tenu- ous when the number of people who are dependent is cooked. “The problem is that even with the best of intentions, without credible demo- graphic data,” the Israeli government “can- not make long-term plans,” wrote Glick, an insightful, outspoken political conser- It is “far from clear,” Glick wrote in back- ing a one-state solution, why “the best way to resolving Israel’s demographic challenge is by establishing a hostile Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria.” Glick observed that such a state would operate “alongside the terrorist-controlled hostile Palestinian state in Gaza,” itself a 2005 byproduct of demographic angst on the part of then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Glick believes a Palestinian state in the West Bank would allow “hundreds of thousands of foreign, hostile Arabs to immigrate to its territory.” That would “constitute an existential demographic — and strategic — threat to the shrunken, enfeebled Jewish state.” In her estimation, the best solution to Israel’s demographic challenge is, and constitution (Israel doesn’t have one; it’s legal system is based on a series of what are known as “Basic Laws”), just as in the American case, the fundamental val- ues represented in the document influ- ence and advise the law of the land, and are as much guiding principles in 2018 as they were in 1948. Israel’s 70th anniversary (marked on its Hebrew date of the fifth of Iyar — April 19 this year) is a time to celebrate all that has been accomplished and reflect on what yet remains to be done. On this milestone, the indispensable always has been, Jewish immigration, or aliyah. A goal of bringing 500,000 Jews to Israel over the next 10-15 years coupled with Jewish fertility rates in Israel outpac- ing Palestinian fertility rates in the West Bank would assure at least a 75 percent Jewish majority west of the Jordan River. Israel may not ever enjoy productive peace talks with the current P.A. govern- ment, but that doesn’t mean such talks would be improbable with a new govern- ment in Ramallah. President Abbas is 83, slowing and losing his grasp of influence and reality. The JN believes ultimately in a Jewish state and a Palestinian state living side by side as a partial solution to the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. Such a solution, initi- ated by the U.S. or another responsible peace broker, would have to emanate not out of fear of an end to a Jewish major- ity west of the Jordan River, but rather from a peace-seeking P.A., a demilitarized Palestinian state and a limited Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley to assure safe, secure borders. If authentic talks are to have any chance of yielding impressive results, it behooves Israel and the P.A. to build on their joint security arrangement to derive true official population data for the West Bank. Without reliable data, Israel and the West must view the P.A. with suspicion based on assumptions instead of on the empirical data so vital to helping a future Palestinian state, fragile as it would be, not only take root, but also flourish. It’s time to clean up the mockery that is Palestinian Authority demographics. The Palestinian people, let alone the world, deserve nothing less. • commentary continued from page 5 Like its American counterpart, read today, Israel’s Declaration is not parti- san or political. It speaks to the values of the nation, whether one is on the left or the right, religious or secular, Jewish or non-Jewish. While lacking the legal import of a 8 April 26 • 2018 jn Declaration of Independence serves as a touchstone and a source of pride, cohe- sion and aspiration for the Jewish and democratic State of Israel. • Jonathan A. Greenblatt is CEO and National Director of the Anti-Defamation League.