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Middle East Politics

Expert offers his take on current events.

KERI GUTEN COHEN STORY DEVELOPMENT EDITOR

A

MILLERCENTER.ORG

prospects of anything remotely
aron David Miller
resembling a peace agreement, and
offered his take on
I choose my words very carefully —
America, Israel and the
I’m talking about a conflict-ending
Middle East at an event Nov. 9
agreement, when the Israeli prime
at Temple Beth El that was co-
minister and Palestinian president
sponsored by the JCRC/AJC.
would stand before their legisla-
For two decades, Miller served
tive bodies and say the following:
in the State Department as an
analyst, negotiator and adviser
Aaron David Miller ‘On the six core issues that drive
our conflict — borders, security,
on Middle Eastern issues to
Republican and Democratic secretaries of refugees, Jerusalem, recognition of Israel
as the nation-state of the Jews and the end
state. Between 2003 and 2006, he served
of all claims and conflict — we’re done!
as president of Seeds of Peace, a program
No more issues to be adjudicated’ — the
in conflict resolution and coexistence.
chance of that happening is a fantasy.
Now, he is vice president for new initia-
“You have an Israeli-Egyptian peace
tives and a Distinguished Fellow at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for treaty that is highly functional and has
fundamentally reshaped the nature of
Scholars in Washington, D.C. He also is a
Israeli’s security predicament in the
CNN commentator.
region; and paid off huge benefits to the
Before the Beth El program, Miller
Egyptians as well. You can’t look at this
stopped at the JN office for an interview.
Here are some excerpts on a wide range of and say they have peace in the same way
we have peace with Canada or Mexico.
Middle East topics.
“If you want to understand American
What’s your take on how Americans
foreign policy, you have to understand
view prospects for Mideast peace?
where we are — sandwiched in between
“Sensible people, Jews and non-Jews,
would look at the Middle East and, unless two non-predatory powers north and
south. And fish to the east and west.
you are really interminably obtuse, you
These oceans, theses liquid assets, are key
have to come to the conclusion that

to understanding why we behave the way
we do and why we continue to misunder-
stand what it’s like for smaller powers like
Iran, Israel and Egypt, and the medium-
size powers like the Chinese and Russians.
“They are trapped by history and geog-
raphy in a way we will never be and that
critical distinction is why we consistently
don’t understand the world and what it’s
like to be a tiny power …
“The thing I worry least about is Israel’s
ability to take care of itself. Israel is an
extraordinary country, resilient, vibrant,
and it has agency. And it’s my view that
Israelis don’t look at themselves as victims
… without any power to act. The Israelis
know how good they are at what they do.
They don’t trivialize their security prob-
lems, which are significant, but that’s also
important for Americans and American
Jews to understand: The reality is that
we live on different planets. We are not
Israelis and they are not us … Israelis and
Arabs are out there dealing with stuff and
we’re protected.”
What is going on with Saudi Arabia
in regard to Lebanon, Iran, Israel and
the U.S.?
“We have never seen anything like this
before; neither have the Saudis. [Saudi
Crown Prince] Mohammed Bin Salman,
MBS as he is called, is to the Saudi system
what Donald Trump is to ours: a force
never seen before. MBS, at home and
abroad, has demonstrated a degree of
risk-readiness unparalleled to any of the

Saudi kings, with the exception of Abdul-
aziz, who founded the kingdom …
“MBS is determined to acquire an enor-
mous amount of power and to confront
Iran and the hand of Iran through proxies
anywhere he sees it.”
Is a war in Lebanon likely?
“It would be insane. Look at 1982, 1993,
1996 and 2006 — the Israeli experience
with Lebanon has been miserable … Hez-
bollah shut down Israel for 33 days in
2006 … I would judge the odds of a major
Israeli-Hezbollah war to be remote, but if
you ask me what is the most likely major
act of confrontation, it would be that , at
some point.
“It’s part of an Iranian-Saudi cold war,
which is growing increasingly hotter, and
an effort by MBS to demonstrate a degree
of toughness and to plan Saudi national-
ism … The problem is the Saudis don’t
have the assets on the ground to roll back
Hezbollah or Iran’s influences. But this
is one of the major themes that defines
this particular period of modern Middle
Eastern politics — this single rivalry.”
Can Jared Kushner help the peace
process?
“I met Mr. Kushner for the first time
several months ago and I said to him, ‘I
wish my father-in-law had as much con-
fidence in me as yours seems to have in
you. He’s given you ‘mission impossible.’ I
wish the guy well. We worked on this for
20-plus years; let the Trump administra-
tion give it a whirl.” •

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