eretz

analysis

What
If Jordan
Had Not
Attacked
Israel In
1967?

W

Yael Aronoff

ABOVE:
An Israeli gunboat
passes through
the Straits of
Tira n near Sharm
El Sheikh in 1967.

hat would Israel look like today if
Jordan had not attacked Israel during
the 1967 war? On the 50th anniver-
sary of the 1967 war, with the persistent ques-
tions about the meaning, necessity and ethics
of Israeli control over the territory acquired as a
result of that 1967 attack, it is incumbent on us
to consider these questions and their relevance
today.
If Israel had not acquired the West Bank
and east Jerusalem as a result of the Jordanian
attacks, would Israel’s security have remained
at risk in the ensuing decades? What have been
the consequences of that Jordanian attack for
Israel’s culture, its ideals and its democratic
character?
Before speculating on the counterfactual,
it is worth remembering how Israel’s decision
to preemptively attack unfolded. Israel faced
imminent threat of invasion by multiple armies
that threatened its destruction. Israelis were
building mass graves in anticipation of the
invasion; the economy was at a standstill for
three weeks while reservists — who, together
with active military personnel, constituted a
significant percentage of the country’s 2.5 mil-
lion people — were mobilized. Appeals to the

United States to break the Egyptian blockade
of the Straits of Tiran were ignored. After trying
to avoid war and failing, Israel attacked rather
than risking the grave consequences of waiting.
Israel informed Jordan that if it refrained
from attacking Israel, Israel would not attack
Jordan. However, Jordan was constrained by
a military alliance with Egypt. Egypt misled
Jordan into believing that Egypt was winning
the war and encouraged Jordan to attack.
Jordan shelled west Jerusalem and, in response,
Israeli commanders chased Jordanian forces
out of east Jerusalem and the West Bank.
While the necessity of Israel’s preemptive
strike is widely accepted, its decisions during
the war and beyond are the subject of continu-
ing debate. Immediately upon declaring a cease
fire, Israel offered, in return for peace, the West
Bank to Jordan, Gaza and the Sinai to Egypt,
and the Golan to Syria. Had these countries not
rejected negotiating with Israel, peace may have
been concluded 50 years ago.
On the other hand, had Israel not acquired
these lands, then even the steps toward peace
that have been made — incomplete as they
have been — might not have been accom-
plished.

“Land for peace” generated Israel’s peace
treaties with its neighbors. Without these ter-
ritories as leverage, Egypt and Jordan may not
have concluded peace agreements with Israel
in 1979 and in 1994, respectively; Syria may
not have tried to negotiate peace deals; the
Palestine Liberation Organization may not have
abandoned its goal of destroying Israel; and the
Arab League may not have offered normaliza-
tion with Israel in exchange for a return to the
1967 borders.
Perhaps all of Israel’s neighbors would have
continued to reject its existence in the region.
One could also argue that it was the devastating
defeat of 1967 and 1973 that deterred its neigh-
bors from attacking again.
In addition, one might argue that Israeli suc-
cess in 1967 — including the seizure of these
disputed areas — was decisive in leading the
United States to view Israel as a strategic ally
against the Soviet Union and its client states in
the region. Before 1967, U.S. support of Israel at
times vacillated; after Israel proved itself in the
1967 and 1973 wars and demonstrated its stra-
tegic value, the U.S. would provide billions in
military support. It is possible that, had Jordan
not attacked, and had Israel remained in the

continued on page 22

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