Commentary

The Detail from page 38

The Times of Israel quoted a
23-year-old law student at the Tehran
University rally on Al Quds Day as
saying: 'We still recognize Israel as the
enemy of Islam. I tell Israel to stop day-
dreaming and rest assured that you will
collapse:'
It's hard to believe the P5+1 deal will
have any effect on tempering such vit-
riol among Iran's younger generations.
Bolstering that belief is the impres-
sion of Brig. Gen. Ahmad Reza
Purdastan saying during the run-up to
Al Quds Day that Iran will never "hold
a positive view" toward the U.S. — "the
enemy:'
Said Iran's ground-forces command-
er, according to the Iranian Fars News
Agency: "Our enmity with them is over
principles and rooted in the fact that
we are after the truth and nations' free-
dom, but they seek to exploit nations
and put them in chains."
Congress must hew to America's and
the civilized world's best interests, and
not bend to political expediency, as it
passes judgment on the P5+1 deal —
everything from nuclear-installation
inspections and plutonium enrichment
to sanctions relief and ballistic missiles
development. President Obama vows
to veto congressional rejection, but
that shouldn't preclude robust, unfet-
tered and compelling
debate on Capitol
Hill.
Robert Einhorn,
a senior fellow
with the Arms
Control and Non-
Proliferation
Initiative at
Einhorn
the Brookings
Institution, told the Washington Post
that Iran "was already a nuclear thresh-
old state:' when Obama took office.
"Full rollback, to zero centrifuges,
was not a realistic or obtainable objec-
tive:' he said.
Patience, Einhorn added, will enable
Iran to reap big rewards through the
installation of improved centrifuges as
negotiated restrictions expire.
"The deal stands up very well as a
barrier to proliferation... for up to 15
years:' he said.
"Beyond that, he said, Iran "will
clearly be able to increase its enrich-
ment capabilities" as well as "shorten
the breakout time" — the time
required to gather enough fissile mate-
rial to build a single nuclear bomb.

Supportive Voice
In an interview with J.J. Goldberg,
editor-at-large of the Forward, a New
York-based national Jewish newspaper,

Ami Ayalon, a former director if Israel's
Shin Bet internal security service and
sometime peace activist, said he sup-
ports the deal despite its disturbing
flaws. He urges a halt to fighting the
deal, noting the
Russians, Chinese
and Europeans
aren't going to just
roll over if Congress
rejects it, in turn
creating "a truly
46% chaotic situation:'
OR—
"I don't think the
Ayalon
Russians will decide
to maintain the sanctions because the
United States Congress doesn't like
the agreement:' Ayalon told Goldberg.
"So what will happen is that Iran will
escape sanctions, inspections will dete-
riorate, nuclear work will go on and we
will lose on every front.
"Reaching the agreement wasn't
a mistake," Ayalon concluded. "It
is the best of the available options,
even though it strengthens Iran as a
troublemaker. We in Israel need to
differentiate between, on one hand,
the problems in the Middle East and
the understanding that we will have
to continue fighting terrorism for the
next 30 to 40 years, and on the other
hand, the need to prevent the entry of
nuclear weapons.
"I'm sorry to say this, but this is the
price we need to pay to prevent Iran
from gaining nuclear weapons:'

Studying Up

Some say Netanyahu may be overreact-
ing in his repulsion toward the deal,
but audits by Congress and by diplo-
matic, military and other experts may
well prove he's not. Al Quds Day serv-
ing as a banner event to incite violence
and Iran heading up a terrorist proxy
brigade certainly give credence to the
Israeli prime minister's belief that "Iran
does not hide its intention to continue
its murderous aggression, even against
those with whom it is negotiating:'
"Perhaps there is someone among
the great powers:' Netanyahu said the
Sunday after Al Quds Day, "who is pre-
pared to capitulate to this reality that
Iran is dictating — which includes its
unending calls for the destruction of
Israel.
"We will not pay the price for this:'
If ever Iran's world standing
demanded intense scrutiny, it is now,
before the ruling clerics become even
more emboldened and empowered.
If the P5+1 deal is as bad as it
appears on the surface, such scrutiny
will either confirm that or dramati-
cally change the conversation.

❑

Iran Deal Can Trigger
Chaos For America

he Iranian regime may chant
"Death to America" and preach
about regional domination, but
their words cannot be met with action,
or so the thinking goes. The harsh truth
is Iran's stated objectives are not just
attainable, but relatively easy to achieve.
The easing or lifting of sanctions as
part of a nuclear deal will kick off a mad
dash by international businesses and
governments to cash in. It is reported
that Iran will be immediately given
access to $50 billion in frozen assets
as a sign-on bonus if a deal is reached.
This income will be used to stabilize
the unpopular regime, rein-
vigorate its extremist ideol-
ogy and fund its nuclear
ambitions and terrorism-
sponsoring apparatus. Iran is
engaged in a proxy war with
Arab enemies in Syria and
Yemen and wants to win. In
a region where grenades can
be bought for as little as $6,
we're looking at a new height
in Iran's sponsorship of ter-
rorism.
But can Iran tip the bal-
ance of power that quickly? Yes, if you
consider Iran's pattern of building prox-
ies among Shiite populations.
Only one-third of the Yemeni popula-
tion is Shiite, yet Iran's Shiite Houthi reb-
els were able to overthrow the govern-
ment and make Sanaa the fourth Arab
capital under Iranian domination. The
three others are Baghdad, Damascus
and Beirut.
The most appealing opportunity for
Iran is Saudi Arabia's eastern province,
where there are actually Shiite majori-
ties. It is also where an estimated 90
percent of the Saudi oil is located. The
source of Saudi Arabia's strength is
based in its weakest point.
The Islamic State sees the opportunity
for chaos here as well and has repeat-
edly bombed the Shiites to try to trigger
sectarian warfare. Both Iran's proxies
and Sunni terrorists like ISIS and Al
Qaida thrive in such environments as
one's extremism fuels the other.
Iran also has an economic incentive
to escalate its proxy war and terrorism.
Its economy is in shambles, though it is
in considerably better shape since the
interim nuclear agreement was made. Its
dependency upon oil exports means that
Iran simply has to find a way to cause
a spike in the price of oil. In fact, Iran
already tried to perpetrate a cyber 9-11
on Saudi oil production in 2012.

T

The economic calamity that would
benefit Iran and agonize the Saudis
would also be a financial catastrophe
for America. Iran's proxy wars even spill
over onto American soil. In 2011, the
U.S. foiled a plot by Iran to kill the Saudi
ambassador in Washington, D.C., by
blowing up the restaurant he dines at.
There is an even greater threat to
America from Iran — one that nuclear
expert Dr. Peter Vincent Pry warned that
the U.S. may never recover from if it
were to happen. Iranian military manuals
discuss using a nuclear missile to perpe-
trate what's called an Electro-Magnetic
Pulse (EMP) attack. Iran has
even been seen simulating
such an attack.
An EMP involves the
launching of one or more
nuclear-tipped ballistic mis-
siles and detonating them in
the atmosphere, rather than
physically striking a target.
Depending on the size and
altitude of the explosion,
a single nuclear weapon
launched from a vessel near
the coast could collapse the
power grid and destroy virtually all elec-
tronics across the continental United
States. It sounds like science fiction,
but Congress formed the EMP Threat
Commission to study the matter. It con-
cluded in 2008 that between two-thirds
and 90 percent of the American popula-
tion would die within one year.
Some may doubt Iran would perpe-
trate such a catastrophic attack, but
there is no doubting Iran will continue
to invest its resources in killing our men
and women in the military as it has done
since 1979 and especially since 2001.
The U.S. government acknowledges
that Iran is covertly arming and train-
ing the Taliban to kill U.S. soldiers in
Afghanistan and has done so since the
initial invasion. And about 3,500 U.S.
servicemen are now in Iraq to assist with
the fight against the Islamic State. Iran
opposes their presence and its proxies
have threatened to attack them.
The behavior and ideology of the
Iranian regime shows it desires to carry
out the worst deeds. As America takes
a new path forward with Iran, it must
remember the regime's chants of "Death
to America" are as loud as ever.

❑

Professor Ryan Mauro is national security ana-

lyst for the Washington-based Clarion Project,

whose goal is "challenging extremism and pro-

moting dialogue."

July 23 • 2015

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