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The remains of a rocket that hit a Netivot factory on Monday
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Fighting Hamas
How war with Gaza might play out.
Mitch Ginsburg
Times of Israel
0
n Nov. 10, 2012, Gaza terror-
ists fired a guided missile at
an Israeli army jeep. All of
the soldiers within were injured, two
gravely. Over the ensuing days, llamas
rained rockets and missiles down on
Israel, which responded with cautious air
strikes.
On Nov. 14, both Defense Minister
Ehud Barak and Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu ostentatiously
toured the northern front in the Golan
Heights. The move cloaked the strike
that followed: the targeted killing of
llamas military leader Ahmed Jaabri and
the elimination, by the air force, of the
majority of Hamas's long-range Fajr-5
rockets.
Those moves, enabled by meticulous
and penetrating intelligence, rocked the
Islamist organization back on its heels as
the army began an eight-day operation,
which, despite the 1,500 projectiles fired
at Israel, many saw as a success.
The army will be hard-pressed to
duplicate that sort of opening move
this week in what now seems, after the
launch of more than 100 rockets and
mortars at Israel on Monday, as a pos-
sible coming offensive in Gaza.
It stands to reason, too, that Israel
has learnt the lessons of the 2006
Second Lebanon War. It will likely, as in
November 2012, first call up the reserves
en masse before launching a major oper-
ation, giving the troops time to train and
signaling to the other side that a major
blow may soon fall.
But if Hamas is not to be deterred,
then Israel, terribly, as a sovereign state,
will be left with no choice but to respond
to Hamas' attacks and defend its citizens
through military action. Blood will be
shed. Innocents on both sides will pay a
price.
The question, then, is not so much
if Israel will respond to the barrage of
rockets, but what shape that response
will take; what sort of ambitions the gov-
ernment will have if it is forced into an
operation in Gaza.
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Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman
has called for the sort of operation
that would enable reassertion of Israeli
control over the Gaza Strip. This, Brig.
Gen. (res) Udi Dekel and Dr. Kobi
Michael of Israel's Institute for National
Security Studies wrote recently, would
require a massive reserves call-up,
unlike the one issued thus far for 1,500
soldiers total; a lengthy operation
in the Gaza Strip, including ground
troops; and a prolonged toll on the
Israeli civilian population, which would
be under fire for weeks if not months.
The researchers put the economic toll
of such an action at 15 billion shekels
($4.4 billion).
It would also leave Israel in charge of
1.5 million Palestinians.
Therefore, Dekel and Michael
argued, "it is best to have a modest and
attainable strategic objective:'
Maj. Gen. (ret) Amos Yadlin, the
head of the INSS and former com-
mander of Israel's military intelligence
directorate, called the notion of a re-
occupation "a strategic mistake:'
Writing on his Facebook page on
Sunday, he advocated instead for an
offensive that targets the military wing
of llamas, the organization's leaders, its
firepower and its weapons-production
capabilities.
Such an operation, Yadlin wrote,
which would combine aerial fire power
and limited ground actions in order
to secure strategic locations, "might
include damage to the fabric of life in
Israel, the Israeli economy and even
fatalities. But it is necessary:'
Ideally, if forced into a limited war,
the army will begin with a coordinated
strike, probably against Hamas' long-
range rockets, which are less mobile
than its leaders, who have probably
gone underground. From there it will
attempt to score maximum gains in
minimum time.
But as former Mossad head Efraim
Halevy said during a recent phone
interview, one knows where a war
starts, but never where it ends. "The
fortunes of war:' he said in his native
English, "are not pre-destined:'
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July 10 • 2014
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