Commentary
Israel Under Growing Existential Threat
Denver
A
fter the election, Israel is
facing a panoply of real
and potential threats that
rival and possibly even exceed those
it faced in 1948 during the War of
Independence and in 1967 during the
Six-Day War.
The greatest threat by far is that
posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran,
which has repeatedly proclaimed
Israel as a "cancer" that must be
wiped off the face of the Earth. Iran
is now within a matter of months of
having enough enriched uranium to
explode an atomic bomb and within
a couple of years of being able to
miniaturize the bomb and place it on
a missile that could hit nearby Israel
only 700 miles away. The small size
of Israel (8,000 square miles) and
lack of strategic depth (only three
major cities) make this threat unfor-
tunately very real and credible.
The second significant threat is the
rapid spreading of a powerful anti-
Israel Islamist fundamentalism in the
region (including Egypt, Syria, Turkey,
Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and the Islamic
Maghreb region). Egyptian President
Mohamed Morsi, echoing common
themes of his Muslim Brotherhood,
has called Israelis "vampires,"
"bloodsuckers" and "descendants of
apes and pigs." The potential loss of
the Camp David treaty with Egypt
and turning the southern front,
peaceful for 30 years, into an active
military front would be devastating
for Israel. Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, calling Israelis
"war criminals" and Israel a "ter-
rorist state," has threatened to sta-
tion Turkish warships in the eastern
Mediterranean near Israel.
The Syrian Factor
A third serious potential
threat is posed by the
unraveling of Bashar
Asaad's Syria, which pos-
sesses massive chemical
weapons facilities (at 36
bases) and significant but
undetermined quantities
of enriched uranium. The
chaos ensuring after the
likely fall of Asaad may
prompt a civil war among
secular, religious and
ethnic factions that could
provide an opportunity for
virulently anti-Israel jihadists to gain
access to these deadly weapons.
A fourth threat would be that
posed by
Hezbollah in
Lebanon and
Hamas in Gaza,
which already
have fought
three mini-wars
with Israel in
the last seven
years. Hezbollah's
50,000 rockets
are capable of
reaching every
Israeli city, includ-
ing Eilat, and
Hamas' 10,000
rockets increas-
ingly can reach
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Tel Aviv and
Jerusalem. If Iran
either attains
nuclear weapons
or is attacked by
the United States
or Israel, these
weapons may
again fly against
Israel, which yet
cannot stop the
longer-range
Hezbollah rock-
ets.
Dry Bones .1.aFtiAk
IS
OWN
PEOPLE!!
HOW CAN
YOU SAY
THAT?!!!
WHO
THINKS
THAT WAY
TODAY??!
NO HE'S RE'S AN C
NOT! ALAWITE, AND
HE'S KILLING
SUNNIS.
And the classical deterrence theory may yet
apply with the Israel Defense Forces as the
strongest military power in the region.
Possible Red Flags
A fifth major threat comes from
an unlikely country: Pakistan. The
possible overthrow of its secular
leadership and descent into a civil
war where strong jihadist elements
might gain control of Pakistan's 100
or more atomic bombs and other
advanced weapons could seriously
threaten Israel. This could
lead to a marketplace in
atomic weapons flowing into
the hands of virulently anti-
Israel elements, including
Hezbollah and even Hamas.
A sixth less likely, but
still chilling thought is that
Jordanian King Abdullah II,
who has created an island
of calm in a growing sea of
Muslim fundamentalism,
might be overthrown by a
Jordan Arab Spring led by
the Islamic Action Center.
This would turn Israel's long, hereto-
fore quiet eastern front (150 miles)
for more than 40 years, into an
active military front very close to
Jerusalem.
Finally, the last threat could come
from a possible fusion of Hamas'
Gaza and Fatah's Egypt into a pseudo
Palestinian state carrying out a
third intifada against Israel. The
second intifada lasted five years
and cost Israel 1,000 civilian lives
so this thought would be dangerous,
although not, in itself, existential.
A Risky Climate
Thus, despite all that Israel has
accomplished in the last 64 years,
its geographic location in the heart
of the black hole of the New World
Order, small size and location leave
it highly vulnerable. Israel is not
without its own power and capabili-
ties: a strong military; intelligence
and high-tech capability; a growing
anti-missile weaponry; a developing
relationship with key powers (India,
Russia and France) and even other
regional actors (Saudi Arabia and
Azerbaijan); as well as a good mili-
tary and intelligence relationship
with the United States.
Too, some of the threats
may never materialize (such as
Palestinian or Pakistani) and oth-
ers may well be limited by internal
contradictions (such as Egypt with a
failing economy and the need to rely
on the United States). Various jihad-
ist groups, even if gaining access to
dangerous weapons, may (as in the
case of chemical weapons) find them
difficult to use. The overthrow of
Assad would even partially help Israel
by eliminating Iran's major Arab ally
and only route for weapons to reach
Hezbollah and Hamas. And the classi-
cal deterrence theory may yet apply
with the Israel Defense Forces as the
strongest military power in the region.
Yet, the nuclear threat is likely to
hang over Israel for years or decades;
and some of the other threats, at the
least, will likely lead to an Islamist
encirclement of Israel and, at the
worse, develop into open threats
to its very survival. The future still
remains somber as Israel, facing mul-
tiple and diverse threats unseen for
more than 40 years, tries to survive
in one of the most dangerous neigh-
borhoods in the world.
❑
Jonathan Adelman is a professor in the
Josef Korbel School of international
Studies at the University of
Denver.
standing
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Prepared by Allan Gale, Jewish
Community Relations Council of
Metropolitan Detroit
Feb. 7, 2013, Jewish Renaissance Media
JN
February 7 • 2013
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