points of view >> Send letters to: letters@thejewishnews.com Contributing Editor Editorial Mideast Demographics Land yield not vital to keep Jewish majority. T hanks to a higher Jewish fertility rate, more returning Jewish expatri- ates and fewer Jewish emigrants, Israel's Jewish majority in Eretz Yisrael, the historic Land of Israel, continues to grow. Meanwhile, Arab population numbers west of the Jordan River and across the Middle East are increasingly reflective of Western demographic trends — meaning a substantial decline in the Arab fertility rate. This under- scores world tendencies showing a 30-year fertility rate decline in all 48 Muslim-majority countries and territories. So says Yoram Ettinger, a Jerusalem-based demography expert whose findings the IN reviews annually because of the significance in the wake of popular perceptions about how Israel's demographics are tracking. "The suggestion that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean is either dramati- cally mistaken or outrageously misleading:' Ettinger, a respected member of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group, re- emphasized in an October essay in the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom. Skeptics argue that Israel must cede the West Bank, a Palestinian territory outside the State of Israel, without tough negotiat- ing in order to demographically secure the Jewish state. The State of Israel itself is home to 7.8 million people; 75 percent are Jews and 20 percent are Arabs. The largest remaining group consists of Druze. Ettinger cites U.S. author David P. Goldman, who wrote in his 2011 book How Civilizations Die that Israeli leaders quick to flirt with concessions (Rabin's embrace of Oslo, Sharon's uprooting in Gaza, Olmert's unprecedented proposed allowances) "were motivated by fear that Arab fecundity would swamp Israel's Jewish population. In actuality, quite the opposite was occurring ..." Building A Case Key to Ettinger's argument is that the Palestinian Authority has deviously inflated how many Arabs live in the West Bank, made up of biblical Samaria and Judea, for political gain. The real number is 1.65 million. In 2012, Israel's fertility rate of three births per woman is rising. This rate exceeds that of any Arab country other than Yemen, Iraq and Jordan, writes Ettinger. Persian Iran? The birth rate there is 1.8, a decline begun under the late shahs literacy movement. The Israeli Arab-Jewish fertility gap is half a birth per woman in 2012, in contrast with a gap of six births in 1969. "Moreover:' Ettinger said, "young Jewish and Arab Israeli women have converged at three births, with Arab women trend- ing below and Jewish women trending above three births" Last year, Jewish births Demographer Yoram Ettinger grew to 77 percent of total Israeli births, up percent from 1969. Notably, the ultra-Orthodox fer- tility rate has dropped because of Orthodox integration into the workforce and the mili- tary (although the ultra-Orthodox still have proportionately larger families), while the secular Jewish fertility rate is climbing. The fertility decline among West Bank Arabs exceeds the drop among Israeli Arabs — a byprod- uct of the West Bank's shift from rural to urban society over the past 47 years as well as because of more working women, lower teen pregnancy, improved literacy, better family planning and the Palestinians' uncertain future. The West Bank also continues to experience a net-emigration of Arabs against Israel's net- immigration of Jews. 8 Brighter Horizons Ettinger suggests that the 6 million Jews in Israel and the West Bank have become a solid majority of 66 percent. An 80-percent Jewish majority is possible by 2035, given the poten- tial for up to 50,000 new immigrants yearly. To achieve this, Israel would have to make ali- yah a priority, especially from places with high and mobile Jewish populations — France, Russia, Great Britain, Argentina and the U.S. Israel then could leverage its growing economy, the rise in anti-Semitism around the world and renewed diaspora interest in a Zionist way of life. Negotiations that bring two states, one Israeli and one Palestinian, co-existing peacefully, side by side, not only would help stabilize the region, but also help strengthen Israel's national security, economic indica- tors and political stature. But clearly, the ancestral homeland for all Jews has time to assure final-status issues — recognition of Israel; renouncing of terror; borders; security; checkpoints; settlements; "right of return"; Jerusalem; water rights — are scrupulously considered. Netanyahu Once More In Search Of Real Peace M ost Israelis think peace isn't realistic at this moment. So they oppose having Jerusalem make hard concessions for peace. That's the thrust of a recent poll of Israeli attitudes. The majority view seems to support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on 1967 borders, replete with land swaps and a demilitarized Palestinian state. A majority of Likud vot- ers, whose party leader is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even supported such a prospect. Netanyahu himself is on record willing to negotiate with the Palestinians should they, at minimum, accept Israel's right to exist within safe, secure borders, renounce use of ter- ror and commit to a demilitarized Palestinian state. So what's driving the Israeli perception that the timing isn't right for peace? Executive Director David Bernstein of the Boston-based David Project has an intriguing theory. "Given the massive unrest sweeping through the Arab world and the ascendance of the Muslim Brotherhood," he writes in a January online post, "many wonder how a fledgling Palestinian state David could stave off such radical forces or survive a Bernstein Hamas onslaught." Reconciliation talks between Hamas, the terror- ist organization that rules the Gaza Strip, and Fatah, the supposedly moderate political party governing the West Bank, continue. Why Fatah wants any part of a rival terror-focused partner is unclear. Further, there's fear Hamas could overrun Fatah in the West Bank – as it did in 2007 in Gaza. Moreover, Hamas' reign of terror on Negev towns following Israel's 2005 pullback from Gaza isn't the stuff of peacemaking. As Bernstein writes, "Rather than setting a precedent for neighborly relations and sound governance, it gave Israelis a glimpse into a possible mess on its eastern border in the event of a peace deal in the West Bank." Furthermore, as poll data show, Israelis aren't confident enough in Palestinian leaders on either front, or in regional conditions in general, to wholeheartedly embrace the peace camp. Two states, one Jewish and one Palestinian, coexisting side by side amid peace, is a noble pursuit. But it's not practical on the heels of a West Bank leadership that refused to negotiate during Israel's 2010 settlement freeze, that continually snubs Jewish historic ties to Eretz Yisrael, the biblical Land of Israel, and that, in a brazen act, sought unilateral statehood at the United Nations. With the Netanyahu-led Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu alliance taking the most Knesset seats in the Jan. 22 Israeli elections in advance of gov- ernment coalition building, international pressure will demand that the Netanyahu government extend lavish peace offers to the Palestinians – despite the lack of any interest in Ramallah or Gaza City. Peace talks do require opposing sides to come together and at least negoti- ate. The Palestinian issue has been a lightning rod for Israeli prime min- isters. Those who didn't leave because of illness (Ariel Sharon) or cor- ruption (Ehud Olmert) were ousted for being either too rigid against or too eager for peace – namely, Yitzhak Shamir (too inflexible), Shimon Peres (too forthcoming), Netanyahu the first time around (too hawkish) and Ehud Barak (too dovish). If this ideological cycle holds true, argues Bernstein, at some point a perceived opening for peace will emerge. The right-leaning govern- ment will either move to the center (consider Menachem Begin's peace agreement with Egypt and Sharon's hasty plans to withdraw from Gaza) or fall to a left-leaning challenger. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have a fresh, more cen- trist mandate to forage the briar patch of Palestinian politics for a willing, genuine partner in hopes of yet bringing a lasting peace. ❑ ❑ ry January 31 • 2013 49