Ambassador says Arab Awakening is a 'transforming development,' but change won't come quickly. B 8 October 25 • 2012 Ross speak about changes in the Middle East. provide help, but you have to play by a set of rules, and our principles guide these rules." Given Egyptian reliance on U.S. and international aid, and the need for the Muslim Brotherhood gov- ernment to succeed in governing, he believes there is an impetus to action. Don Cohen Contributing Writer uckle up and prepare yourself for a bumpy ride to an uncertain destination — that was the mes- sage from former_U.S. Ambassador Dennis Ross to the nearly 400 people who came to hear his take on "Peace on the Middle East: Is it Still Possible" Oct. 15 - at the West Bloomfield Jewish Community Center. Ross, who joined the State Department during the first Reagan Administration, was President Clinton's special Middle East coordinator during the Camp David peace process. He most recently served two years as special assistant to President Barack Obama and a year as special adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, focus- ing on Iran. He left government service at the end of 2011, but remains intimately involved personally and as counselor for the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, a well-regarded Israel-friendly think tank. Ross eschews the term "Arab Spring," often used to describe recent political and social upheavals in the Middle East because "it implies that change is going to come rap- idly, and that it will grow and there will be a new Middle East characterized by freedom and democracy" That's too much for even this experienced and optimistic American-Jewish diplomat to expect given the distance the Arab world needs to travel to get close to establishing and embracing a democratic system char- acterized by more than free — and possibly one-time — elections. Instead, Ross sees an "Arab Awakening," where "people see themselves as citizens rather than subjects:' Ross calls this "a transforming development" because sub- jects are at the mercy of the regimes and are used to carrying out their aims, while citizens have the standing and means to make claims on government and hold them accountable. "The desire to have accountability is ter- rific, but the institutions for accountability do not exist," Ross said. Rather than counting in seasons, he advises counting in decades: at least one and two wouldn't be a surprise. A large crowd turned out to hear Ambassador Iran & the Peace Process Ambassador Dennis Ross Transformation in Egypt The Islamists have jumped to the forefront because "they have all the advantages:' Ross said. "The regimes wanted to create a binary relationship: either state or mosque. They did not allow for secular or liberal society to develop. "The Islamists had credibility; they were not seen as corrupt:' he said, but "now that they control the [Egyptian] presidency and parliament, they cannot escape responsibil- ity. They dominate the key political institu- tions in society" with the notable and posi- tive exception of the judiciary. Seeing a need for Egyptian democracy to grow organically — "we are not the ones writing this story" — he suggests the U.S. set principles that will serve their interests as well as ours. They would include respect- ing minority rights, educating and includ- ing woman, maintaining political pluralism, ensuring repeatable elections and fulfilling international obligations typified by the peace treaty with Israel. "In private we should be very clear:' he said, "while in public we need to be careful so they don't develop an issue of offending their pride. We can tell them that we can Turning to Iran, Ross said "crip- pling sanctions" are now in place regarding Iran's nuclear program. "Iran is paying a massive price for the first time. They have to come to believe that the failure of diplomacy is more disastrous for them than for the United States." Citing evidence that Iran has suc- cumbed to pressure before, he said, "Iranians are looking for a way out, but if what they are willing to offer meets our requirements remains to be seen. "Next year will be decisive — either we will have a diplomatic outcome or the chance of military confrontation increases greatly:" None of this bodes well for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace front. "[The Arab Awakening] has had a chill- ing effect on both the Israeli leadership and the Palestinian leadership:' explained Ross. "Israel said, 'How do we know the Muslim Brotherhood isn't going to replace the Palestinian Authority?' and the Palestinians say, 'Anything I do to proceed is going to create a backlash; it is too risky:" The risks are seen as greater than the possible rewards because of deep distrust. "Israelis disbelieve that the Palestinians are committed to a two-state outcome. On the Palestinian side, you have a mirror image:' Ross said. "You've got to change the dynamic... We have to fight the disbelief that there is a partner for a two-state solution. We have to promote those who believe in reconcilia- tion:' he said. While some suggest unilateral moves to break the stalemate — Israel to annex some areas and leave others, the Palestinians to turn to the United Nations — Ross cautions against it. "I've never been a big fan of unilateralism because all it breeds is more unilateralism," he said, citing the growth of Hezbollah after Israel left Lebanon and the growth of Hamas after Israel left the Gaza Strip. Ross proposes 14 suggested actions that can set an "agenda for discussion." Most of them are ways to strengthen the belief in both societies in a two-state outcome. Israel would prepare to move people back behind its security wall and allow the Palestinian Authority greater power to conduct its own affairs. Palestinians would acknowledge Jewish history in the region, teach that Israel and its right to security are legitimate, resettle those mired in refugee camps and build accountable government. He would remind Israelis: "The Palestinian issue is not going away. You can't wish it away. The demographic issue is not going away. Something has to be done." To Palestinians he'd say: "Start to build your own state and the rule of law; it is what your people want, and it is in step with the region. And it lets the Israelis know." The program was sponsored by the American Jewish Committee, the Anti- Defamation League and the Jewish Community Relations Council. "Very informative and very clear:' is how Dottie Harwood of West Bloomfield, who attended with two friends, described Ross' talk. "I liked how he touched on very significant topics and gave very complete answers." 0 Sen. Carl and Barbara Levin and Rep. Sander Levin attended Ross' talk.