Ambassadors from page 46

wasn't just the tug of the dream. It
also was a question of survival — the
security of a Jewish homeland.
Take, for example, Ethiopian Jews.
They dreamed of coming home in a
spiritual sense, but they also were flee-
ing an untenable situation. The story
of Jews in Ethiopia isn't pleasant.
As the Jewish Agency for Israel
(JAFI) recounts:
Since the 17th century, Ethiopian
Jews could not own land and were not
held in high esteem. By the mid-20th
century, Jews had become scapegoats
for any national misfortune. In 1974,
political turmoil left nearly 2,500 Jews
dead and 7,000 homeless. Thousands
of Jews soon fled to refugee camps
in Sudan. Jews unlucky enough to be
caught were tortured.
In 1977, Israeli Prime Minister
Menachem Begin set the stage for
Operation Moses by selling arms to
Ethiopia's ruling dictator in exchange
for the release of more than 100
Ethiopian Jews.
In the 1980s, the Ethiopian govern-
ment outlawed the practice of Judaism
and the teaching of Hebrew; it also
harassed Jewish leaders. Hunger, high
infant mortality, bad healthcare and
forced conscription at age 12 exacer-
bated living conditions for Ethiopian
Jews.
Amid these dark times, Operation
Moses — a JAFI-initiated dramatic,
covert rescue plan — brought more
than 7,000 Ethiopian Jews to Israel
from Ethiopia and Sudan. Over 36
historic hours in 1991, Operation
Solomon, the handiwork of the Jewish
Agency and the Israeli government,
brought more than 14,000 Ethiopian
Jews to Israel.
In the decade to follow, the next
wave of Ethiopian immigrants, about
20,000, consisted of Falashas, or out-
siders — descendants of Jews who
converted to Christianity roughly
100 years ago. Many were practicing
Christians and many in the Ethiopian
Jewish community were suspicious of
their reason for converting to Judaism.
After thousands of years of exile,
upwards of 65,000 Ethiopian Jews,
possibly belonging to Dan, one of the
Ten Lost Tribes, have returned to the
Land of Zion since 1974. Their jour-
ney is one of the great success stories
of Israel and a powerful example of
why Detroit mission-goers must think
broader and not dwell on the excite-
ment of their itinerary.
Each of us must choose a path
toward making a substantial contribu-
tion to the well-being of our beloved
Israel, a beacon of light and unity for
Jews around the world. ❑

Commentary

Forecasting The Jewish Vote

T

he question returns every
presidential election year: Is the
Jewish vote up for grabs?
For longer than anyone can remem-
ber, most American Jews have support-
ed Democratic candidates. Quadrennial
Republican hopes to break
the trend remain unfulfilled.
The best the Republicans
have done in the postwar era
was in 1980, when Ronald
Reagan captured 39 percent
of the Jewish vote.
Despite all the talk about
his relations with Rev.
Jeremiah Wright of Chicago
and his alleged coolness
toward Israel, Barack Obama
won 78 percent of the
Jewish vote in 2008 to win
the presidency.
Is 2012 different? A recent American
Jewish Committee (AJC) poll of Jewish
opinion provides an indication at this
stage of the campaign. It suggests not
only how many, but also which Jews are
likely to vote Democratic or Republican.
Conducted by Knowledge Networks, the
survey included a representative sample
of 1,074 respondents.
Looked at collectively, American
Jewry seems just about as Democratic

and liberal as ever. A majority of the
respondents, 52 percent, say they are
Democrats,19 percent declare them-
selves Republicans and 26 percent
are Independents, two-thirds of whom
say they feel closer to the Democrats.
Almost half – 46 percent – are
liberal or lean liberal, while just
19 percent are conservative or
lean conservative. The rest say
they are moderates.
Asked who they would vote
for were the election held
today, 61 percent answered
President Obama and 28
percent GOP frontrunner
Mitt Romney; the rest were
undecided. Clearly, Jews are
far more pro-Obama than the
general population, among
whom the two candidates are running
neck-and-neck.

A Closer Look

But Jewish opinion looks considerably
more complicated when the sample is
broken down by issue priorities.
The survey asked respondents to
identify the three issues they consider
most important in deciding their presi-
dential vote. The one most often men-
tioned was the economy, listed by 80
percent. Within this
group, the percent-
ages supporting
Obama and Romney
are virtually identi-
cal to the overall
Jewish breakdown.
A pro-Obama tilt
is even more pro-
nounced among
the 57 percent who
chose healthcare as
a key issue – which
received the second-
highest mention.
Seventy-two percent
of this group says
it would vote for
Obama, with just
19 percent backing
Romney.
But the picture
was different for
roughly a quarter of
the Jewish sample,
which has other
priorities. Among
the 22 percent who
cited U.S.-Israel
relations, Romney
had a plurality of

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45 percent vs. 42 percent for Obama.
Similarly, the 26 percent of respondents
that listed national security as a priority
issue gave Romney a 44 percent plu-
rality, with Obama getting 42 percent.
And although Obama defeats Romney
among the 15 percent that cites Iran's
nuclear program as a priority, the gap
was narrow, 48 percent to 46.
Within the Jewish population, a group
that is less enthusiastic about Obama
than Jews as a whole are those who
attend religious services once a week or
more, a category with heavy Orthodox
representation. Only 53 percent of
them would vote for the president, eight
points lower than the overall percentage
for Obama. Frequent synagogue-goers
consider national security, the Iranian
threat and Israel, rather than the econo-
my, as top concerns, and are inclined to
oppose Obama.
The survey also asked the undecided
whether they were leaning toward
Obama or Romney, and found that
50 percent of them would choose
Obama, while 39 percent would vote
for Romney. Comprising the undecided
are 26 percent of the Orthodox, 10 per-
cent of Conservative and 11 percent of
Reform Jews.
Interestingly, Obama came out ahead
with 47 percent of Orthodox to 22
percent for Romney, with 31 percent
still undecided. Among Conservative
undecided, Obama gets 43 percent to
56 percent for Romney; among Reform
Jews, it's 54 for Obama and 46 for
Romney.

Time Will Tell

In the end, there is little likelihood of a
mass transfer of Jewish support from
the Democrats to the Republicans, but
even a small, incremental erosion of
Jewish support for Obama could make
a difference in key swing states, such
as Florida and Ohio.
Like other Americans, the undecided
Jews will be heavily influenced by the
direction of the economy, but also by
security concerns, Iran and U.S.-Israel
relations. And recalling 2008, when an
economic collapse and a controversial
Republican vice-presidential nominee
played major roles, let's not rule out the
unexpected. ❑

,

Kari Alterman is executive director of the

Bloomfield Township-based American Jewish

Committee's Michigan chapter.

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May 31 • 2012

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