oints of view Commentary Who Cares How Many U.S. Jews? Demographers seek to fill void of no national survey. Waltham, Mass. T Weighing in Sidney Goldstein, the acknowledged he last national Jewish popu- pioneer and dean in the field of lation study, done in 2000- Jewish demography, said recently that 2001, was pretty much a it was "irresponsible" for JFNA not to disaster. undertake a national Jewish popula- Sponsored by the North American tion study. federation movement - then Goldstein, of Brown known as United Jewish University in Providence, Communities and now Jewish R.I., and now retired, Federations of North America made his remarks at i an October conference (JFNA) - the extensive $6 million survey was plagued hosted by the Steinhardt , by cost over-runs, lost data Social Research Institute and disagreements among and Cohen Center for various experts in the field Modern Jewish Studies over its methodology and the at Brandeis University validity of its conclusions, in Waltham. It brought Gary including the number of Jews together for the first time Rosenblatt in America. Partly as a result several dozen of the lead- of that experience, for the ing demographers and first time since the Jewish community sociologists in the Jewish field, as started these approximately once-a- well as others interested more gener- decade national reports in the mid- ally in religion and culture, to discuss 1950s, there is no plan for another at length the implications of not hav- National Jewish Population Study ing an accurate gauge on whether (NJPS). American Jews are continuing to iden- The leading researchers in this tify religiously and/or ethnically with specialized field are perceived as the faith. a contentious bunch who often cri- tique each other's work publicly. But JFNA Response they seem to agree that the decision In an interview, Jerry Silverman, the by JFNA not to commission a new CEO of JFNA, who was not at the con- national survey is a shame, and a set- ference, said much of the blame for the back to those planning communal poll- lack of another national Jewish study cy or engaged in academic research. belongs to the Jewish demographers whose public sniping about the methodology of past studies undermined the work. "Debate is healthy" up to a point, Silverman THE IDEA THAT said, but when it is driven NEITHER SIDE WILL by "egos" and "inhibits" ATTACK I THEIR communal action, it goes OWN DESTRUCTION too far. IS ASSURED. Silverman asked, "If there was to be another OH. NJPS, mah nishtana?" - why would this study be different from previous ones publicly criticized by the Jewish social scien- tists? "MAO." WILL NOT He intimated that if and WORK WITH SUICIDAL when JFNA undertakes SHIITE IRAN, another national study, III; WHOSE it might go outside the PRINCIPLE IS Jewish community to hire KNOWN AS , , those who would direct it. Dry Bones MAO Mixed Outcome In tracing the impact of past national studies, the 62 December 1 . 2011 conference participants agreed that the 1990 study - for all its controversy over whether the intermarriage rate was indeed as high as 52 percent, as cited - led to a communal emphasis on conti- nuity programs, outreach, day schools, camping and other forms of Jewish education to offset assimilation. But the experts in the room were hard-pressed to come up with any prac- tical outcome from the beleaguered 2000 study, which found that the com- munity declined to 5.2 million Jews - from 5.5 million in 1990 - and that the intermarriage rate had risen slightly. Leonard Saxe, a leading social psychologist at Brandeis who orga- nized and hosted the October confer- ence, noted that one of the reasons the 2000 study lacked impact was because experts weren't comfortable with the findings. He cited, for exam- ple, its statistic that 29 percent of American Jewish youngsters attended day schools, which he said was much too high. "Anomalies like that left us scratching our heads." Joining the chorus of those bemoaning the lack of plans for a new national study, Alan Cooperman, associate director of research for the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Jerry Life, used the Yiddish Silverman word for scandal, say- ing "it's a shandeh we don't have good trend data on Jews in America." He noted that Pew has conducted studies of other small religious groups in the U.S., Leonard Saxe including Muslims. "There's no reason we shouldn't be able to do it," he said. The Obstacles There is the matter of determining what is most important to ask and interpreting data when the very defi- nition of who is a Jew is a source of controversy. "One person's Jew is another's gentile," observed Barry Kosmin, a veteran demographer who teaches at Trinity College in Hartford, Conn. A number of federations are spon- soring studies of their own Jewish communities. New York, for example, plans to release its findings of an extensive survey, the first of its kind in a decade, next spring. [Last year, the Detroit Federation updated its extensive 2005 population survey.] Saxe has come up with and employs a different approach to the national survey, eschewing costly phone calling (only about one in 50 who answer are Jewish) and focusing on synthesiz- ing data from more than 150 exist- ing nationwide studies conducted by the government, other agencies and national polling organizations. According to his research, there are about 6.4 million Jews in the U.S., far more than the NJPS 2000 number and an increase of almost 20 percent since 1990. But he says he is less interested in hard numbers than with "the demo- graphic characteristics of Jews," how they act as Jews, or not, and why. Some of his colleagues say they would like to see more details of the work and methodology before draw- ing conclusions. 'High Quality Research° - Saxe hailed the two-day conference as a success and predicted that the leaders in the field will be able to put aside their differences and come up with new forms of collaboration. He said he believes they will reach "a consensus about size and population [of the American Jewish community] and the qualities of what it means to call yourself Jewish." Silverman said JFNA is examining closely the methods and results of the various local community surveys. "The biggest question [for a national study] is where the Jews are" in terms of "migration and influx," as well as "where they are Jewishly or not Jewishly," Silverman said, adding: "We need to look at other alternative routes," including possibly engaging demographers out- side the small and specialized Jewish field who have "incredible credibility, and who the community may have a hard time challenging." So the challenge goes both ways, with the Jewish demography experts calling for a national study with excel- lent research, and the top Jewish communal official suggesting his group may need to go outside the Jewish field to find it. In the meantime, American Jewry continues to change dramatically, and the existing data, a decade old and inconclusive, becomes more irrelevant with each passing day. r Gary Rosenblatt is editor and publisher of the Jewish Week in New York.