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16 September 8 • 2011
being called the 9th, nearly four-
fifths of it is Sandy Levin's old turf,
much of it in Macomb County. It's
hard to imagine Peters — or any-
one — beating Levin here.
Normally, the choices facing Gary
Peters would be to a) retire grace-
fully and look for another job, or
b) gear up for a possibly suicidal
primary battle. That is what former
Democratic U.S. Rep. Lynn Rivers
did a decade ago, when she was
thrown into a district with John
Dingell, now the longest-serving
congressman in American history.
Not surprisingly, he ended her
political career.
Yet, this year, things are much
more complicated than anyone
expected. The legislature so radi-
cally changed the dimensions of the
13th District — now represented
by freshman Hansen Clarke — and
the 14th, now represented by the
octogenarian John Conyers, that the
two men are almost certain to try
to swap districts.
The charismatic and multi-racial
Hansen Clarke has already decided
to run in the new 14th, one of the
oddest districts in Michigan his-
tory. It begins in the Grosse Pointes,
curves in an arc across both north-
ern and southern Detroit, and
marches across Oakland County,
taking in widely differing communi-
ties including Pontiac, Southfield,
Farmington Hills and heavily Jewish
West Bloomfield and Oak Park.
While the district does have a
slight African-American majority,
most of the residents are subur-
banites who weren't likely to be
happy about being represented
by Conyers, who at 83, has always
focused on inner-city concerns, and
whose office doesn't have the best
reputation for constituent services.
Conyers hasn't said where he will
run, and baffled people by show-
ing up at a recent Southfield City
Council meeting, though he refused
to speak. But it seems likely he will
now file in the 13th District, which
includes some mostly blue-collar
Wayne County suburbs, and a large
portion of Detroit, much of which
he represents now.
True, he doesn't live there. Nor
does Hansen Clarke live in the
14th. But not only could both men
easily move — there is, in fact,
no requirement that a member of
Congress live in a district he or she
represents.
Yet there is still one more wild
card. Gary Peters might yet decide
the more the merrier — and jump
into the 14th District race.
That is, jump into the race for the
Democratic nomination, which will
be decided in the August primary.
Many of the Oakland County voters
are either constituents of his now
— or are in areas he represented
back when he was in the state sen-
ate a decade ago.
There's a possibility he could beat
Hansen Clarke in a primary. While
a majority of the voters are black,
white suburbanites traditionally
have higher turnout levels. Besides
Clarke, two other black candidates
from Southfield could get into the
race — State Sen. Vincent Gregory
and Southfield Mayor Brenda
Lawrence.
But Gary Peters has yet to decide.
Elsewhere, few changes are
expected in Michigan's congressio-
nal delegation. All nine Republicans
are likely to be re-elected, and
redistricting strengthened most of
them.
Among the Democrats, John
Dingell of Dearborn will be 86
next year, but is expected to be re-
elected easily. Dale Kildee of Flint
is voluntarily retiring, but is certain
to be succeeded by a Democrat,
possibly his nephew, Dan Kildee.
Though we don't yet know who
the survivors will be, the way in
which the seats were redistricted
mean that when a new Congress is
seated in January 2013, Michigan
is likely to send nine Republicans
and five Democrats to Washington.
What's saddest is simply this:
Our population has been steadily
declining relative to the rest of
the country, and since 1980, we've
lost five seats in the U.S. House
of Representatives — equiva-
lent to the entire delegation of
Connecticut. What's more, most of
the Democrats are very old.
Levin, Conyers and Dingell are
well into their 80s. U.S. Sen. Carl
Levin is 77. Hansen Clarke and
Gary Peters are the only congress-
men of their party still in their 50s.
Biology alone means that
Michigan Democrats will be fac-
ing a nearly wholesale leader-
ship change over the next decade,
whether they, or the voters, like it
or not. I I
Jack Lessenberry is senior political
analyst for Michigan Radio, a former
executive national editor of the Detroit
News and a member of Temple Emanu-
El in Oak Park.