( U. N./Devra Be rkowitz )

world

Diplomatic
Knot

Jewish groups debate ways to thwart
U.N. recognition of Palestine.

Ron Kampeas
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Washington

T

he path to international recogni-
tion of Palestinian statehood
by September — when the
Palestinians plan to bring the matter
before the U.N. General Assembly —
seems clear.
The question before Israel and its sup-
porters who oppose such recognition is
how to create a detour.
Some say the way to go is through dip-
lomatic suasion. Others say there needs
to be a push forward with peace initia-
tives. Still others believe that threatening
counteraction is the best way to derail the
Palestinian plan.
Israeli officials have warned that uni-
lateral recognition of Palestine could be
countered by unilateral Israeli steps, like
West Bank annexation.
The only certainty is that Israel expects
the fallout from such recognition of
Palestine to be disastrous. Several weeks
ago, Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minis-
ter, called it a "diplomatic tsunami''
At the moment, the Palestinian plan
is to get a sympathetic nation on the
15-member U.N. Security Council, where
decisions carry the weight of interna-
tional law, to propose recognition, and
at the same to get two-thirds of the
General Assembly to recognize the state
of Palestine, in itself a propaganda vic-
tory. Should the United States, as expected,
veto a Security Council resolution recog-
nizing Palestine, the Palestinians would
try to invoke the rarely used General
Assembly Resolution 377, also known as
the "Uniting for Peace" resolution, which
allows the General Assembly to override
the Security Council.
The latter scenario is what Israel and
its friends want to avoid; its use in 1981
set the legal framework for a decade of
boycotts of South Africa that ultimately
helped topple that country's apartheid
regime.
Israel and its allies are in agreement
on the technical approach to running the
Palestinian Authority initiative off the
road.
Step one is to avoid the necessity of

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April 21 - 2011

JN

a U.S. veto in the Security Council by
thwarting the nine votes that any initiative
needs to pass the 15-member Security
Council, absent a veto. Failure to get such
a majority on the Security Council likely
would inhibit Palestinian efforts to bring
the matter to the General Assembly in
September.

Numbers Game
Alan Elsner, senior communications direc-
tor for The Israel Project, has been meet-
ing in New York with U.N. diplomats. He
counted off what he believed would be five
sure votes against the proposal on the cur-
rent council: Permanent members France,
Britain and the United States, and rotating
members Germany and Colombia.
"If they can't get it through the Security
Council, they [the Palestinians] would lose
a lot of momentum," he said.
The focus then would be to draw in
at least one more Western or Western-
leaning country from among the rotating
10 members. There are three possibili-
ties, according to Elsner. One is Portugal.
The second is E.U. aspirant Bosnia &
Herzegovina, a Muslim country that
is likely to side with the West given its
lingering distrust of Russia for backing
Serbia during the Yugoslav wars of the
1990s. The third is Gabon, an oil-rich West
African autocracy that has close relations
with France and that has been cultivated
in recent years by Jewish leaders. The
other members of the council are per-
manent members Russia and China and
rotating members India, Lebanon, Brazil,
Nigeria and South Africa.
The parallel strategy, Elsner said, is to
lay the groundwork now by explaining to
diplomats from 120 nations who routinely
favor the Palestinians that even a symbolic
recognition of Palestine is no ordinary
rebuke of Israel.
"The trick is to make countries aware
that this is not a routine vote Elsner said,
noting that such an effort already was
underway in Congress. Key congressmen
from both parties are reaching out to
ambassadors to explain that such a vote
would have repercussions in terms of rela-
tions with the United States.
David Harris, the executive director of
the American Jewish Committee, which
focuses on U.S. Jewish outreach inter-

Israel and its supporters are trying to fend off recognition of Palestine by the U.N.

General Assembly, seen here during a moment of silence for the victims of the
Japanese tsunami.

nationally, said European opposition to
Palestinian statehood was not a sure thing.
"How the European Union will behave
matters greatly:' Harris said, noting that
the world's 192 nations look to the 27 E.U.
members for moral leadership. "Whether
the E.U. will take a single unified position
or will break down into national positions
remains to be seen."
Daniel Mariaschin, the executive direc-
tor of B'nai B'rith International, said that
when he meets with diplomats, he points
out the long-term harm to peace that U.N.
recognition would bring in the absence of
a real peace deal.
"The question at the beginning of any
meeting goes like this:' he said. "'Do you
believe in a negotiated settlement as the
best resolution for the conflict?' They
say 'Yes' Then we say, 'Why would you
prejudge the outcome for recognizing a
Palestinian state before contentious issues
have been decided?'"

Pushing Talks
Mariaschin noted that every peaceful
outcome in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
has been the result of negotiations, starting
with the Egypt-Israel accords negotiated by
Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat. "Now
we're turning the clock back pre-Begin and
Sadat, and it's not a prescription for suc-
cess," Mariaschin tells these leaders.
Aaron David Miller, a longtime negotia-
tor for successive U.S. administrations,
outlined in a recent Washington Post
Op-Ed how the initiative could boomerang
on the Palestinians, causing Israel to take
unilateral action.
"The Palestinian campaign will also
prompt intensified Israeli settlement
activity in an effort to remind Palestinians
that Israeli actions are real, not virtual;'
he wrote. "Should the Palestinians declare
statehood, Israel will probably act to
demarcate what part of the West Bank it
intends to keep."
Unilateral Palestinian action also would
likely alienate the Obama administration
and spur Congress to cut off funds, Miller
said.

Those advocating the peace tracks
say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu needs to counter the
Palestinian statehood push with a peace
initiative serious enough to prompt allies
of the Palestinians to nudge them back to
direct talks with Israel.
"How Israel engages in its public diplo-
macy with regard to the resumption of
the peace talks and how it engages in its
private diplomacy will have real impact in
shaping how other countries react:' Harris
said. "Israel must convince the world it is
absolutely dead serious about moving the
peace process forward."
Last week, Netanyahu joined Rep. John
Boehner (R-Ohio), the speaker of the U.S.
House of Representatives, in announc-
ing plans for an Israeli prime ministerial
address to both chambers of Congress in
the first week of May. That's a signal of
Netanyahu's intention to present a new
peace initiative.
Separately, U.S. officials have indicated
that the Obama administration also is
ready to re-enter the process after months
of inactivity since the Palestinian walk-
out from direct peace talks with Israel in
September, when Netanyahu refused to
extend a self-imposed partial settlement
freeze.
There are rumors circulating in
Washington that President Obama plans
to lay out his own vision even before
Netanyahu's arrival, in order to make sure
the Israelis understand the American bot-
tom line of a solution based on the 1967
borders, with adjustments.
The AJC's Harris said Israel and the
United States need to launch a "full-court
press" by summer to head off recognition
in the fall.
"The consequential countries are look-
ing for signs and signals from Israel and
the United States — what will the prime
minister say to Congress next month, will
President Obama come to Israel in the
summer?" Harris said. "There are a lot
of important moments that can happen
between now and the fall." Li