Editor's Letter Ask Financial Crisis Attorney Ken Gross about... A Jewish Israel B y 2014, a Jewish-Arab demographic parity between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea will be the precursor for an Arab majority. So claims the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). As questionable as that source is, Israeli demographers and politicians fearful of the Jewish state's future cite it in arguing that giving up the West Bank will secure a Jewish major- ity in Israel. The United Nations and Norway — neither a bastion of impartiality and professionalism — supervise the PCBS, as dubious a sta- tistical agency as there could be. Retreat and concessions by Israel seem to be the way of choice for fol- lowers of forgoing the West Bank — not debating the future of the militarily strategic mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria, which are part of Eretz Yisrael, the biblical Land of Israel. The resulting fear of demography not only promotes a pessimistic Israeli view of what lies ahead, but also erodes Israel's bargaining position, says Yoram Ettinger, one of Israel's sharpest analysts of Jewish-Palestinian demograph- ics. While Israel has hopes of renewed talks with the Fatah- led West Bank, it has little hope of ever finding Hamas-led Gaza at the negotiating table. Well Credentialed Numbers Talk Since 1967, Bacchi's students have tried to persuade Israeli prime ministers to cast aside national security interests in the face of the "demographic scare,' Ettinger says. They have urged Israeli leaders "to sacrifice the irreplaceable geography and topography" of the West Bank mountain ridges "on the altar of demography." By sticking to Bacchi's legacy, they underrate Jewish fertil- ity, which is higher than most Arab countries (2.9 births per woman and trending upward vs. 2.8 in Jordan, 2.5 in Egypt and 2.5 in the Gulf states and trending downward). Moreover, they ignore near-annual, net-Arab emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza since 1950 while downplaying the prospect of aliyah. It's as if Israel's mass arrival of Soviet Jews since the 1980s is a demographic blip. Statehood has attracted more than 1 million olim (immi- grants), Ettinger says, catapulting Israel "to unprecedented heights technologically, medically, economically, culturally and demographically." Today, Israel is home to 7.5 million people: 79.8 percent are Jews or affiliates (olim yet to be recognized as halachic Jews by the Chief Rabbinate), 16.9 percent Muslim Arabs, 1.7 per- cent Christian Arabs and 1.6 percent Druze. Ettinger found a 66-percent Jewish majority in 98.5 percent of the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean — Gaza excluded. If Gaza is factored in, there's still a 58-per- cent Jewish majority in the region even before you consider the strong prospects of increased aliyah and returning Israeli expatriates. A 2010 PCBS census inflated Judea and Samaria Arabs by 66 percent (the actual count is 1.6 million) and Gaza Arabs by 23 percent (the right number is almost 1.3 million) — a deception dating back to the first Gaza Strip- West Bank census in 1997. Ettinger is a member of the American- Israel Demographic Research Group. He is special projects chairman at the Ariel Center for Policy Research in Shaarel Tikva and a consultant to members of Israel's cabinet and Knesset. He's the former con- gressional affairs minister at the Israel Embassy in Washington. I last wrote about Be More Skeptical his findings in August after, in a position Ettinger is perplexed why Israeli leaders still paper, he refuted the demographic fatalism fear the numbers, especially because there has relating to Eretz Yisrael. He pointed to Arab been a 50 percent rise in the annual number population misrepresentations rooted in of Jewish births since 1995 thanks to more political gain. At the same time, he painted Demographer Yo ram women of childbearing age, notably in the sec- a positive picture of growth in the Jewish ular community. In comparison, the Arab birth Ettinger population, His conclusion: Israel stands to rate inside the Green Line has stabilized. remain a Jewish state. My takeaway: There may be a land-for-peace component Ettinger discounts the Arab notion that Jews are doomed to an Israeli-Palestinian border agreement, but relinquishing to become a minority west of the Jordan River. "Reality has the West Bank's historically and militarily strategic mountain refuted demographers of doom at least since the end of the ridges out of fear over tenuous demographic concerns would 19th century," he says. In a Jan. 3 dispatch, he gives incisive be foolhardy. historical context: It may be an overstatement to say if Herzl and Ben-Gurion • In 1898, Shimon Dubnov, a Jewish demographer-his- were optimistic in 1900 and 1947, respectively, when Jews were torian, contended that Theodor Herzl's Zionist view lacked a minority of 8 percent and 33 percent in their ancestral home- demographic infrastructure because no more than 500,000 land, the Netanyahu government should share that optimism Jews could be expected in Eretz Yisrael by the year 2000. (He today. But I understand why Yoram Ettinger believes that. The was off by 5 million Jews). dream of Zionism has withstood the ultimate test: of time. • In the 1940s, Professor Roberto Bacchi, founder of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, warned that Jews would O : 1 1 Is a Jewish Israel contingent on Jewish r ,; eventually become a minority under the British Partition — withdrawal from the West Bank? tn hi Plan. He pressured Israel's David Ben-Gurion to delay decla- I — 0 ration of independence and projected that, in the best case, Z Do the Jewish and Arab fertility rates in Eretz Israel would be home to 2.3 million Jews, a 34 percent o 4 2 the Middle East surprise you? minority. (He was wrong by 3 million Jews). Your Financial Problems I'm Underwater what can../should I do? First things first. You need to explore your options. There are several factors that must be evaluated. How far underwater? Do you have significant credit card debt? What is your income? A modification may be an op- tion if you have a high inter- est rate or if your payment of principal„ interest taxes and insurance on your first mort- gage is greater than 31% of your gross monthly income. Modifications, however, do not get you out from being underwater. A short sale does. Whether a short sale is right for you requires analysis of the risks and rewards. In my view - it is the smartest way to exit a house underwater, but you need to proceed with caution and understand all the issues. The law film ofThav„ Gross, St.einway and Bennett has been solving its clients' business, tax and financial problems tbr 29 years. Call today for a the private consultation or email kengross@thavgrosscotn. 0 THAV GROSS 888.235.4357 (HELP) or 248.645.1700 For information, visit us online at thavgross.com fetaikcenter.conA stoptax,debt,com 30150 Telegraph, Suite 444. Bingham Farms, MI 48025 r u a 5