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strategy against the radical forces led
by Iran, Israelis found it baffling that
President Obama turned his back
on the embattled Egyptian leader so
quickly.
Pundits argued that Obama's stance
sent a deeply disconcerting message
to America's moderate allies across the
region, from Saudi Arabia to Morocco,
that they, too, might be as perempto-
rily abandoned in time of need. That
message, the pundits said, might drive
those equally autocratic leaders else-
where for support, even toward Iran.
Secondly, the pundits insisted that
by distancing himself from Mubarak,
Obama was encouraging the would-be
revolutionary opposition in Egypt.
Clearly, the American president was
hoping for democracy and a concomi-
tant increase in popular support for
America across the region.
In his Cairo speech in June 2009,
Obama offered the Muslim peoples of
the Middle East a new beginning. Now,
he seems to be using the Egyptian
crisis to underscore that appeal to the
Muslim masses.
But Israeli pundits warn that this
is most unlikely to work. There could
well be a two-stage revolutionary pro-
cess — an initial quasi-democracy,
overtaken within months by the
emergence of an autocratic Islamic
republic under the heel of the Muslim
Brotherhood.
It would be similar to what hap-
pened when the United States sup-
ported pro-democracy forces against
the Shah in Iran in the 1970s, only to
see the emergence of the fundamen-
talist ayatollahs.

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President Obama

Moreover, in the event of an even-
tual Muslim Brotherhood victory, the
big regional winner would be funda-
mentalist Iran.
It is safe to assume Benjamin
Netanyahu's government in Israel
would be relieved to see power
remaining in the hands of Egypt's
current ruling elite — say, through
a peaceful handover to Mubarak's
recently appointed vice president,
Omar Suleiman.
However the events in Egypt play
out, they will clearly have an impact
on the Israeli-Palestinian peace pro-
cess. The very notion of a threat to the
peace with Egypt will almost certainly
further reduce the Netanyahu gov-
ernment's readiness to take risks for
peace.
As for the Palestinians, the
Egyptian protests could trigger
Palestinian demonstrations pressing
for statehood — without peace or
mutual concessions. I I

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February 3 • 2011

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The oppo-
sition to
Mubarak has
been debat-
ing whether
to push for
an immediate
end of his rule
or move more
Fred Pearson
gradually, says
Fred Pearson,
professor of political science and
director of the Center for Peace
and Conflict Studies at Wayne State
University in Detroit. "The leader-
ship is aware of the contradictions
in their own country:' he says. "They
may need to move more slowly to
orchestrate a gradual transition."

But rather than wait to see what
occurs, he counsels the U.S. and
other players to move now and "get
ahead of things" to help ensure a
positive outcome. He says move-
ment with Hamas regarding Gaza
would be very useful, but he sees it
as unlikely.
"The U.S. is on record as guarantee-
ing the peace agreement" between
Egypt and Israel, Pearson says, noting
that U.S. troops, mostly observers,
are stationed in the Sinai to ensure
compliance with the 1979 agreement
demilitarizing most of Sinai.
Nonetheless, he's concerned that
"the spillover regarding the borders
with Gaza could eventually put the
peace treaty at risk:'

