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NEWS ANALYSIS

New Landscape

Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

W

as it an act of political self-
preservation, a feat of political
destruction or a bid to stabilize
Israel's government ahead of some dra-
matic move?
And for Israel's Labor Party, was it
another sign of the once-leading party's
demise, or a precursor to a revival and the
ideals for which it stands?
What's certain is that Defense Minister
Ehud Barak's decision to quit Labor, which
he headed until Jan. 17, has sent shock
waves throughout the Israeli political
establishment.
Ironically, the split of Labor — then
part of the Israeli government but now
in the opposition — may yet strengthen
the coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin
"Bibi" Netanyahu. Barak's decision to
quit Labor and found a new political
party along with four other Labor defec-
tors leaves Netanyahu with eight fewer
members in his coalition, but the 66 who
remain are considered far more stable
than the 74 he had pre-defection.
Before Barak's dramatic announcement,
Labor was threatening to withdraw all 13
of its Knesset members unless Netanyahu
could show real progress
in peacemaking with the
Palestinians. That would
have left the prime min-
ister with only 61 coali-
tion members, the vast
majority right-wingers
and the minimum nec-
Benjamin
essary to stay prime
Netanyahu
minister in the 120-seat
Knesset.
Such a narrow coalition would have
opened up Netanyahu to harsh domestic
and international criticism for leading a
perceived hard-line government.
Now, in what appears to have been a
coordinated move, Netanyahu and Barak
have pulled the rug out from under their
opponents.

Bibi's Fate
With a more stable coalition, Netanyahu
almost certainly has secured a full term in
office, until 2013.
Barak pre-empted attempts to oust him
as Labor leader and force him to leave
the Defense Ministry by cutting a deal in

54 January

2011

Photo by Ab lr Su ltan/ Fla

Political betrayal or precursor to something bigger?

him and the party that had given him his
chance in politics.
Barak's leadership of Labor had been
under severe threat. Would-be successors
had called for an early party convention,
expected to take place in late February
or early March, with two issues on the
agenda: deciding whether or not to stay in
the government and setting a date for new
leadership primaries. Within the space
of a few months, Barak could have found
himself out of the Defense Ministry and
supplanted as party leader.
Barak says his new party will run in the
next elections. But many Israelis are won-
dering if Barak really intends to make an
electoral pact with Netanyahu and run on
the Likud ticket.

Labor's Role?
Where does all this leave the Labor Party?
Many had accused Barak of ruining the
Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak quit the Labor Party Jan. 17.
party with his high-handed leadership
style, lack of people skills and loss of ideo-
which he can stay on as defense minister
serious peace talks.
logical direction — and now delivering the
after leaving Labor.
Now, with a more stable government,
coup de grace by splitting the party in two.
Many Israelis on the left and right
the Palestinians will see this is who they
Many Israelis believe that Labor, whose
viewed Barak's move with deep skepti-
have to deal with for the foreseeable future leaders founded and built the state, hold-
cism. The new party he heads, called
and may become more serious about
ing uninterrupted power for Israel's first
Atzmaut, which means independence, has
returning to the negotiating table.
three decades, has run its course and that
a hazy future other than the assurance
Furthermore, Netanyahu and Barak
a new left-center constellation will rise
of four ministerial berths in Netanyahu's
confidants have been dropping broad
from the ashes.
government and the chairmanship of a
hints that a new Israeli peace initiative is
But the eight former ministers and
Knesset committee.
in the offing, suggesting that this is part of Knesset members who have remained in
The leader of Israel's opposition,
a the Netanyahu-Barak understanding.
the party insist that it could still be at the
Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni, called
heart of a center-left revival.
it the "dirtiest and ugliest maneuver" in
Iranian Connection?
One of the contenders for the party
Israel's political history. Her own party
There is another theory for Barak's move:
leadership, Yitzhak Herzog, said Barak's
was a breakaway from Likud in November that Netanyahu is seriously contemplating
departure has freed Labor of its biggest
2005, when then-Prime Minister Ariel
a pre-emptive strike against Iran's nuclear
obstacle in the way of rehabilitation, and
Sharon led an exodus of moderates,
installations and believes he needs Barak
now the party can rebuild and recapture
including Livni, from the Likud.
at his side.
some of its former glory.
According to this line of thinking, with
"Labor got rid of the hump on its back:'
The Impact
the Labor Party threatening to force Barak he declared.
The regional implications of the upgraded to leave the government, Netanyahu could
Party activists, especially the young
Netanyahu-Barak partnership could be
have found himself with a new defense
guard, say that with Barak gone, people
far-reaching.
minister who was less inclined to attack
will rejoin in droves.
It would appear that the peace process
Iran. The front-runner would have been
Labor overcame its first serious hurdle
with the Palestinians is over, as the more
the Likud's Moshe (Boogie) Yaalon, a
on the way to rehabilitation when four
dovish members of Netanyahu's coalition
super-hawk on the Palestinian issue but
Knesset members led by former party boss
have exited. Even if Netanyahu wanted to
very cautious about striking Iran.
Amir Peretz — who had been considering
cut a deal with the Palestinians, his remain-
It would be understandable, commen-
a second split-off from Labor — decided
ing coalition partners likely would block it.
tators said, if Barak's decision was part
to stay. But the four have made it clear that
Barak and Netanyahu, however, put a
of a bid to revive peace talks with the
unless there is a modicum of cooperation
much different gloss on things. Until now,
Palestinians or take action against Iran's
with them, they will leave at a later date,
the Palestinians had been hoping for the
drive toward nuclear weapons. But if not,
precipitating another major crisis.
Israeli government to fall and be replaced
the move is nothing more than a cynical
More important, the results of the next
by one more amenable to their demands,
act of political self-preservation.
election likely will be decided by how the
representatives of the two men argue, and
In the media, Barak's move was excori-
new Netanyahu-Barak partnership fares.
this has kept the Palestinians away from
ated as a betrayal of those who voted for
That has only just begun. 1 1