Editor's Letter
equilibrium
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Demographic Optimism
W
e keep hearing that Jews are doomed to become
a minority west of the Jordan River and must
give up land to secure their numbers in the
Middle East.
A Jewish demography expert says
otherwise.
"Contrary to demographic projec-
tions, the first half of 2010 sustains
the growth of the Jewish fertility rate
and the sharp and rapid fall of the
Arab fertility rate throughout the
Muslim world as well as west of the
Jordan River;' says Yoram Ettinger,
one of Israel's top analysts of Jewish-
Palestinian demographics.
Demographic precedents assert only
a slight probability of resurrecting
high birth rates after a prolonged period of significant reduc-
tion, according to Ettinger. That means the fear of Israeli Jews
being overrun by Arabs in the region may be exaggerated.
Ettinger is special projects chairman at the Ariel Center for
Policy Research in Shaarel Tikva and a consultant to members
of Israel's cabinet and Knesset. In a position paper issued Aug.
12, Ettinger refutes the demographic fatalism relating to Eretz
Yisrael, the historic Land of Israel. Once again, he points to
Arab population misrepresentations rooted in political gain.
At the same time, he paints a positive picture of growth in the
Jewish population.
Ettinger's compelling conclusion: Israel
stands to remain a Jewish state.
The Jerusalem-based demographer is no
amateur. He's the former congressional affairs
minister at the Israel Embassy in Washington.
He briefs U.S. lawmakers and their staffs on
Israel, terrorism and other issues of bilateral
concern. And he's an authority on overseas
investments in Israel's high-tech industry.
Ettinger picks apart Palestinian population numbers. He
says Arabs in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) total 1.6
million — 900,000 fewer than the Palestinian Authority
claims. Further, a World Bank study documents a 32-percent
inflation in Palestinian birth numbers.
Framing that Palestinian ruse, Ettinger says: "What if the
contended Palestinian numbers require a population growth
rate almost double the highest population growth rate in the
world, while Gaza and Judea-Samaria are ranked fifth and
38th in global population growth rate?"
The obvious follow-up: What prompted the decline in
Palestinian births?
The answer? Accelerated urbanization and a Western influ-
ence, such as a focus on education, better healthcare, more
jobs, more women in the workforce, improved family plan-
ning and lower teen pregnancy. Domestic security concerns
also have slowed Palestinian births.
From 80,400 births in 1995, the number of Jewish births
rose by 50 percent to 121,000 in 2009. The annual number of
Arab births inside the Green Line, meanwhile, has stuck to
about 39,000 because of Arab integration into Israeli society.
"The fertility gap between Arabs (3.5 births per woman
and trending downward) and Jews (2.9 and trending
upward) was reduced from six births per woman in 1969 to
0.6 in 2009:' Ettinger says.
Erosion in the Arab birth rate is 20 years faster than pro-
jections made by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics.
Looking Ahead
In the past, aliyah fueled Israel's population
spurts thanks especially to waves of Russian
olim (immigrants). Today, there's real poten-
tial for another wave of aliyah as well as
more expatriates given the global backdrop
of economic uncertainty and spreading anti-
Semitism.
Ettinger wonders if the Israeli govern-
ment will push aliyah in places with high
By The Numbers
and mobile Jewish populations, such as the
former Soviet Union, France, Great Britain,
The State of Israel is home to 7.5 million
people; 75 percent are Jews and 20 percent are
Argentina and yes, America. He sees aliyah as
a cornerstone of sustaining the Jewish major-
Arabs. The largest percentage of the remain-
Yoram Ettinge r
ity and thus Israel's national security and
der is made up of Druze.
Ettinger's findings are telling, beginning
economy.
Ettinger is a member of the American-Israel Demographic
with the surge in the Israeli Jewish birth rate and the decline
in birth rates in the Third World in general and in Muslim
Research Group; its 2008 study is the basis for his 2010 report.
countries in particular.
Ettinger's relentless pursuit of Middle East demographic
Today, there is a 66-percent Jewish majority in 98.5
reality certainly bursts the bubble of misconceptions relating
percent of the area between the Jordan River and the
to Arabs becoming a dominant force in the State of Israel.
Still, when it takes non-official research to reveal actual
Mediterranean Sea (excluding Gaza); there's a 58-percent
population patterns within Eretz Yisrael, world Jewry must
Jewish majority in the region if Gaza is included.
"That Jewish majority," says Ettinger, "benefits from a
speak up and demand tighter accountability in the all-impor-
demographic tailwind and from a high potential of aliyah and tant search for demographic truth in a region so critical to the
of returning Israeli expatriates:'
Jewish people.
❑
A Closer Look
Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics reveals that the annual
number of Jewish births has climbed more than 40 percent
since 1995 thanks to more women of childbearing age, espe-
cially in the Orthodox community. In comparison, the Arab
birth rate inside the Green Line has stabilized over the same
period.
O . •
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a.a-
Does Yoram Ettinger give Israel a
ray of hope or bargaining strength?
Are Jews overly obsessed with
Palestinian population trends?
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August 19 • 2010 5