Publisher's Notebook jarc www.jarc.org The Elephant In The Room: Our Dwindling Demographics A n array of theories and explanations have been offered to justify the July 7 decision by Congregation Shaarey Zedek's board of trustees to close its B'nai Israel Center in West Bloomfield after this year's High Holidays. With recurring budget deficits, an aging membership base in need of more dues relief, a recession-impacted endowment, nearly tapped-out lines of credit, a moving of its B'nai Israel- based preschool into Hillel Day School of Metropolitan Detroit, a vacant pulpit position caused by the recent departure of Rabbi Eric Yanoff and a potential buyer for the facility quietly waiting in the wings, Shaarey Zedek could ratio- nalize its decision as one driven by dol- lars and cents. Others contend that aside from finances, factors included an inability to meld the distinct West Bloomfield and Southfield cultures into one congregational family, general shrinkage in Conservative movement affiliation and a Southfield build- ing-centered strategy that propelled expensive decisions to purchase and divest two satellite facilities (B'nai Israel and the Laker Center) about two miles from each other. But in his letter to congregants explaining the board's deci- sion to close the B'nai Israel Center, President Brian Hermelin touched on the elephant in the room ... the shrinking Detroit Jewish community. How significant is this elephant? The 1989 demographic study commissioned by the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Detroit pegged our population at 96,000. The 2005 Federation-commis- sioned demographic study placed our population at 72,000 with the oldest median age outside of Sun Belt Jewish communities and the number of young adults so small, it was comparable to the study's overall margin for error. Projecting age cohorts from the 2005 demographic study and overlaying empirical data (local funerals handled by Ira Kaufman Chapel, Dorfman Chapel and Hebrew Memorial, local births, the number of high school students leaving for college, out-migration trends for Oakland County residents retiring or seeking work elsewhere), 60,000 is a defensible guesstimate of our current Jewish population. If these trends are not addressed, our Jewish community may shrink to between 40,000-45,000 by the year 2020, with more than half older than 65. Let me repeat that ... 40,000- 45,000 by the year 2020 with more than half older than 65. To put it bluntly ... our once dynamic and world-renowned Detroit Jewish community is slowly but surely dying in front of our eyes. And despite the substantial economic and human resources at our community's fingertips, there continue to be nominally supported and improperly funded efforts to try and stabilize and revitalize our population base. Hard-working and dedicated community leadership remains focused on immediate and important priorities, including supporting vulnerable local populations, securing endow- ment gifts for Federation's Annual Campaign and providing generous financial support for Israel and other overseas Jewish communities. However, by ignoring the elephant in the room, they are mortgaging our future, and our children's future, as a vibrant Detroit Jewish community. In December 2008, Federation completed a strategic study, "20/20 for 2020: A Clear Vision for Our Future." It is thought- ful and contains valuable recommendations, including the strengthening of Federation's fundraising functions, expanding volunteerism and utilizing technology to streamline Federation and beneficiary agency operations and communications. However, the report includes two assumptions that need revisiting: • The Detroit Jewish population could decline to 60,000 by 2020 (data suggest we are already at that number in 2010); • The global economic recession will cause greater short- term challenges than anticipated (data suggest the Detroit area has experienced a fundamental structural change in its economy, not a short-term one). Also, the 20/20 com- mittee started its work in the spring of 2007, about six months before anoth- er Federation task force titled "Detroit Works!" issued its findings and recommendations relat- ing to the alarming out-migration of young Jewish adults. There is no mention in the 20/20 report of"Detroit Works!" findings or ways to confront the debilitat- ing demographic trends. The 20/20 committee concludes by calling on Federation to form a high-level, active implementation team to enact the recommendations and provide new insights to keep the 20/20 vision for Jewish Detroit sharp. While some of the committee's recommendations have been implemented on an ad hoc basis, 19 months after the report's completion, the high-level, active implementation team has yet to be formed. The underpinning of our Jewish community's success has been, and must continue to be, the centrality of Federation in the areas of fundraising, allocations and planning. It's past time for Federation and our community leadership to boldly and creatively attempt to bend the demographic trend line ... precious months and years have already been squandered. Let's finally confront the elephant in the room. To put it bluntly ... our once dynamic and world-renowned Detroit Jewish community is slowly but surely dying in front of our eyes. Tea Party Revisited Heading into the Aug. 3 Republican gubernatorial primary, candidates are engaged in their final push for votes and victory. Two in particular, Attorney General Mike Cox and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, have been aggressively courting Tea Party support. In the May 6 issue of the Jewish News, I wrote about big- ots diluting the Tea Party message and challenged Cox and Bouchard to condemn convicted felon and Tea Party presiden- tial candidate wannabe James Traficant for his anti-Semitic rants (which can be found on former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke's website). Neither did. Cox and Bouchard should be judged on their overall records of public service and platforms for moving Michigan forward. However, they shouldn't get a free pass for failing to condemn Traficant. ❑ Carol Shapiro Havis of Organically Done with Stacy Duczkowski JARC gardeners have been working hard in their own community-style raised-bed gardens to produce delicious organic vegetables, herbs and edible flowers. This new garden project, designed and built by Organically Done, enhances the lives of the gardeners through satisfying labor, a connection to the environment and a sense of camaraderie. Special thanks to garden donors Charles. Lisa and Leah Dunn. Whether as a volunteer or donor, your generous support will benefit the men, women and children JARC serves by . . f5arria . c. 30TH ANNUAL FUNDRAISER S74 ✓ e o the pate ItEsi NIDE 1-7 0 slimy e FISHER THEATRE July 29 • 2010 5