eriehce

CONGREGATION
MUREX' ZEDEK

Nuclear Iran?

Bar-Ilan professor outlines Israel's
strategic security options.

have "obtained sufficient technological
capability to cause extreme damage to
conventional armies and the societies
on which they rely."
lthough he's a political sci-
And because the rules of modern
entist rather than a geolo-
warfare and international law inad-
gist, Prof. Stuart Cohen of
equately address a situation where
Israel's Bar-Ilan University in Ramat
Gan is interested in the shifting of tec- combatants and civilians are inter-
twined, it can do serious political
tonic plates. Particularly the "tectonic
damage.
plates" — global, regional and opera-
While not discounting the serious-
tional — that he says have guided
ness of the Iranian threat and the
Israel's security interests for decades.
likelihood of a regional
Cohen, a senior
arms race destabilizing the
research Fellow
region even further, Cohen
at the university's
sees time for diplomacy.
Begin-Sadat Center
"As far as we know, [Iran]
for Strategic Studies,
is
still some way from
told an audience of
developing
a nuclear weap-
Bar-Ilan supporters
on."
He
estimates
five to six
in Farmington Hills
years
for
Iran
to
develop
on Oct. 26 about the
a bomb comparable to
factors Israel must
what
America used against
consider as it deter-
Japan
in 1945.
mines how to prevent
"This
helps explain
Iran's development of
the
Obama
approach:' he
C
ohen
Prof. Stuart
nuclear weapons.
said,
charging
those citing
On the global level,
shorter
deadlines
as
trying
to force
Cohen says a weakened United States
quick
military
action.
impacts Israeli decision-making.
He says Israel has little choice but
Citing the economy, wars in Iraq and
to
follow the American lead both dip-
Afghanistan and the ability of "some
lomatically
and militarily. Research
state and non-state actors to hurt the
shows
"if
Israel
were to step out of
United States," he cautions Israeli and
line
with
the
U.S.
it could be a bigger
American freedom of action is con-
strategic
danger
[to
Israel] than even a
strained.
nuclear
attack,"
which,
he says ,would
On the regional level, Cohen says
be
devastating
but
survivable.
the American invasion of Iraq "virtu-
He said Israel is very strong and
ally made it inevitable that Iran would
operating
on multiple fronts with the
become a regional power."
Foreign Ministry working diplomati-
"The goal of democracy in Iraq
cally, Mossad working to sabotage the
hasn't happened — rather than a
Iranian nuclear program, and the IDF
stable government, the nation has
preparing its air force, submarines and
fragmented, increasing Iranian and
civil defense.
Shiite influence Cohen said.
"It is very doubtful whether Israel
He sees an "arc of Shiite influence"
would unilaterally use force he said.
stretching from Iran, through Syria to
"There is no guarantee of success and
Lebanon, "causing a ferment produc-
it is a big, big risk" militarily.
ing a resurgence of militant Islamism,
"Prof. Cohen's analysis gave us a lot
not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan,
to think about:' said Alan Zekelman,
but also in Egypt and Turkey."
president of Detroit Friends of Bar-
On the operational level, the Israel
Defense Forces (IDF) — his academic Ilan University. "The challenges that
Israel, the United States and the
specialty for more than three decades
— faces a major shift from countering region face from a resurgent Iran are
deadly serious. I'm proud Bar-Ilan
conventional and guerilla warfare to
is making important contributions
what he calls "hybrid warfare."
to understanding the problem and,
Hybrid warfare combines both
threats, whereby Israel's enemies, non- hopefully, to a peaceful and effective
state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah, resolution." II

Don Cohen
Special to the Jewish News

A

g
povado
ovgaa6gr 13

Are you a family with a child in
Kindergarten to Seventh grade
considering membership?

Join us for a family dinner at 6 PM
to prospective members
who register by calling 248/357-5544

As Seen On

OPRAFt

M. Gary Neuman

New York Times Best-selling Author

Vaoo 122 (4 Mchug
Actvou.c?

Congregation Shaarey Zedek
Southfield

"Talking to Your Children
During These Tough
Economic Times"

Join us again the next day
for a special Lunch & Learn

Congregation Shaarey Zedek
Southfield

"How to Make a Miracle"

Please RSVP no later than November 9 to Karen Davis
at 248/357-5544 x60 or e-mail kdavis@shaareyzedek.org

M. Gary Neuman's appearance is generously sponsored by
The Morris and Beverly Baker Foundation in memory of Morris D. Baker

Ait„
SUPPORT OUR COMMUNITY,

SHOP WITH OUR ADVERTISERS!

Mention that you saw them in the JN!

November 5 g 2009

19