Opinion
OTHER VIEWS
Jewish Israel: Demographic
Optimism, Not Fatalism
Jerusalem
been Jewish. Since 1882 (the launch-
n March 1898, Shimon
ing of annual aliyah), the
Dubnov, a leading
Jewish population between
Jewish historian-
the Jordan River and the
demographer, projected a
Mediterranean has grown 238
population of 500,000 Jews
fold, while the Arab popula-
west of the Jordan River
tion increased only six fold.
by the year 2000. However,
Since 1948, the Jewish popu-
in 2000, there were 5 mil-
lation increased almost 10
lion Jews west of the Jordan
fold and the Arab population
River!
expanded three fold. Thus,
On the eve of Israel's
according to Israel's Central
1948 Declaration of
Yoram
Bureau of Statistics (ICBS),
Independence, Prof. Roberto
Ettinger
the annual number of Israeli
Bachi, the founder of Israel's
Special
Jewish births has grown by 45
Central Bureau of Statistics,
Commentary
percent from 1995 (80,400)
contended that — under the
to 2008 (117,000), while
best case scenario — there would be
the number of Israeli Arab births has
2.3 million Jews in the Land of Israel by stabilized at 39,000 annually. The Arab-
2001, constituting a 33 percent minor-
Jewish fertility gap shrunk from six
ity. In 2001, there was a solid 60 percent births in 1969 to 0.7 births per woman
Jewish majority, of 5 million, west of the in 2008.
Jordan River. Since 1948 Israel's demo-
The American-Israel Demographic
graphic establishment declared that no
Research Group (AIDRG), headed
massive aliyah was expected. Three mil- by Bennett Zimmerman, discovered
lion olim (immigrants) have arrived!
that the Palestinian Central Bureau of
The assumption that Jews are
Statistics (PCBS) contended a 170 per-
doomed to become a minority between
cent population growth from 1.5 million
the Jordan River and the Mediterranean in 1990 to 3.8 million in Judea, Samaria
has eroded confidence in the future of
and Gaza in 2007. This would be almost
the Jewish state. It has also triggered
double the population growth rates of
the thesis that Israel must, supposedly,
Afghanistan, Niger and Eritrea, which
retreat from Jewish geography (Judea
have the highest population growth
and Samaria) in order to secure Jewish
rates according to the U.N. Population
demography.
Division.
But, what if the official number of
AIDRG has uncovered a number of
Arabs in Judea and Samaria is inflated
significant flaws in the PCBS numbers.
by 53 percent? What if a long-term 67-
For example, some 400,000 overseas
percent Jewish majority exists over 98.5 Palestinians — who have been away for
percent of the land west of the Jordan
over a year — were included the census,
River?
in defiance of globally acceptable demo-
In sharp contrast to conventional
graphic standards. More than 200,000
wisdom, the U.N. Population Division
Jerusalem Arabs — possessing Israel
reports a sharp decline of fertility
ID cards — are doubly counted as
rate (number of births per woman)
Israeli Arabs (by the ICBS) and as West
in Muslim and Arab countries. A sub-
Bank Arabs (by the PCBS). A 40,000-
stantial dive of fertility rates in Muslim
50,000 annual gap exists between the
countries — trending toward 2-3
number of births contended by the
births per woman — is documented
PCBS and the number of births docu-
by the Population Resource Center
mented by the PA Ministries of Health
in Washington, D.C. For instance, the
and Education. Some 60,000 have to be
fertility rate in Iran has declined from
deducted annually on account of unre-
nine births per woman, 30 years ago,
alized immigration — which was con-
to 1.8 births in 2007. Jordan, which is
tended by the PCBS — and substantial
demographically similar to Judea and
emigration of well over 10,000 annually.
Samaria has diminished from eight
Some 105,000 Palestinians who received
births per woman, 30 years ago, to fewer Israeli ID cards since 1997 are doubly
than 3.5 in 2007.
counted as Israeli Arabs (by the ICBS)
In defiance of demographic fatalism,
and West Bank Arabs (by the PCBS).
Israel's demographic momentum has
AIDRG findings have been sup-
I
A18
April 16 * 2009
ported by the World Bank 2006 survey
of education, in Judea, Samaria and
Gaza, which documents a 32 percent
gap between the number of Palestinian
births claimed by the PCBS and docu-
mented by the Palestinian Ministries of
Health and Education.
AIDRG has documented a robust long-
term Jewish majority of 67 percent west
of the Jordan River without Gaza and 60
percent with Gaza, compared with an 8
percent Jewish minority in 1900 and a 33
percent Jewish minority in 1947 between
the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.
The number of Arabs in Judea and
Samaria is inflated by 53 percent (1.5
million and not 2.3 million) and the
number of Arabs in Judea, Samaria and
Gaza is inflated by 40 percent (2.7 mil-
lion and not 3.8 million).
There is a demographic problem, but
it is not lethal and the demographic
trend is Jewish. Therefore, anyone sug-
gesting that Jews are doomed to become
a minority west of the Jordan River, and
that the Jewish state must concede Jewish
geography in order to secure Jewish
demography, is either grossly mistaken
or outrageously misleading. Li
Yoram Ettinger served as minister for con-
gressional affairs at the Israeli Embassy in
Washington (with a rank of an ambassador),
as Israel's consul general in Houston and
as director of Israel's Government Press
Office. He is the editor of Israeli newsletters
on issues of national security and overseas
investments in Israel's high-tech. He con-
sults with Israel's cabinet and Knesset and
briefs U.S. lawmakers on Israel's contribu-
tion to U.S. interests, the root causes of ter-
rorism and other issues of bilateral concern.
The Zionist Organization of
America-Michigan Region will
sponsor a lecture by Yoram
Ettinger at 7 p.m. Monday, April
20, at Congregation Shaarey
Zedek in Southfield. The free
lecture is open to the Detroit
Jewish community. It is being co-
sponsored by Harold and Barbara
Berry, Lawrence and Sharon
Berry, Congregation Shaarey
Zedek and the Morris and Beverly
Baker Foundation. For more infor-
mation or to RSVP, call (248) 282-
0088.
Netanyahu
Can Make
Peace
New York/JTA
I
n recent weeks,
thousands of
people have
been clicking onto
a YouTube clip of a
brash 28-year-old
named "Ben Nitay"
testifying in a col-
lege mock court that
there is no need for
a Palestinian state.
Many would like to
see in this old clip
the current views
of Israel's new prime minister, Benjamin
Netanyahu.
However, as Ariel Sharon once said
regarding his own transformation from
critic to prime minister, "What one can't
see from 'there, one sees very clearly from
`here.'"
Netanyahu's previous term as prime
minister a decade ago, from 1996 to 1999,
is remembered bitterly by many in the
national camp and the settler movement.
He had campaigned for office in the spring
of 1996 as a vigorous opponent of the Oslo
Accords, but shortly after becoming prime
minister in June, he signed an agreement
to withdraw from 80 percent of Hebron
and roll back Israel's presence in the West
Bank in three further redeployments.
Here he was on Jan. 15, 1997, seven
months into his term, being photographed
shaking the hand of Yasser Arafat, wit-
nessed by U.S. Secretary of State Warren
Christopher, against the opposition of half
his Cabinet.
A year and a half later, on Oct. 23, 1998,
Netanyahu reached out to Arafat, this time
in the company of President Clinton on
the White House lawn, signing the Wye
River Memorandum in which he agreed to
withdraw the Israel Defense Forces from
13.1 percent of the disputed territory and
give the PLO a measure of control over 41
percent of the West Bank and 80 percent
of Gaza.
Yossi Ben Aharon, a prominent figure
on Israel's right, accused Netanyahu of a
"great betrayal ... of the Jewish inhabit-
ants of Judea, Samaria and Gaza:' taking
Netanyahu on page A19