NEWS ANALYSIS
Coalition Building
Can Bibi draw Livni into his government?
Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
A
fter winning the mandate to form
a new government, Benjamin
Netanyahu faces a seemingly
intractable political paradox.
Netanyahu owes his mandate to the sup-
port of 65 right-wing Knesset members,
but the last thing the Likud Party leader
wants is a coalition of right-wing parties.
He knows that a hard-line government in
which Likud is weighed down by right-
wing ideologues will not sit well with
the international community. Netanyahu
remembers how his first term as prime
minister, from 1996 to 1999, was undercut
by a similar right-wing constellation.
The question is: Will Netanyahu be able
to make the huge ideological leap neces-
sary to bring Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima
party into his coalition?
Livni is demanding that Netanyahu
accept the principle of two states for
two peoples in negotiations with the
Palestinians. So far, Netanyahu has been
unwilling to do that.
Another problem is the size of the
coalition. If Netanyahu brings in Livni
and keeps the right-wingers, he would
have an unwieldy coalition of 93 of the
120 Knesset members. To pare it to more
manageable proportions, he would have
to drop either Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael
Beiteinu party, for a coalition of 78, or all
or most of the religious parties. The latter
would reduce his coalition to 70 or 81 if
it includes the OrthodoX Sephardic Shas
party, to which Netanyahu reportedly is
beholden.
In 1988, the Likud's Yitzhak Shamir
found himself in a similar position. He
jettisoned prior agreements with the
right-wingers to form a national unity
government with Labor, famously telling
the hawkish Hatechiya's Yuval Neeman,
who had a signed coalition document, to
frame it and hang it on the wall.
Foggy Horizon
Whether Netanyahu will be that single-
minded and ruthless remains to be seen.
If he sticks with the right-wingers, Israel
could be in for a rough ride overseas.
The Europeans already have expressed
Benjamin Netanyahu
Tzipi Livni
two major concerns: that a narrow right-
wing government will spell an end to
peacemaking with the Palestinians, and
that Lieberman's presence in the govern-
ment could threaten Israeli democracy.
Lieberman has proposed requiring loyalty
oaths in a bid to curtail Israeli Arab politi-
cal power.
For the time being, the new American
administration is taking a wait-and-see
attitude. But U.S. officials have been re-
emphasizing Washington's commitment to
a two-state solution.
problems Israel faces — Iran's nuclear
drive, Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism
and the global economic crisis — which,
Netanyahu says, make a bipartisan gov-
ernment essential.
In his efforts to persuade Livni to join,
Netanyahu is in a position to offer her a
pick of top ministries, an equal number of
portfolios to Likud and an equal number
of seats in the Security Cabinet. The stum-
bling block is the government's program.
American Intrigue
On a visit to Israel last week that also
included a trip to Gaza, Sen. John Kerry,
D-Mass., chairman of the Senate's Foreign
Relations Committee, hinted that there
could be U.S. pressure down the road. On
the key issues, Kerry said, it would be up
to Israelis to decide, but that the United
States would try to "steer" its ally in a
direction that was good for Israel and the
international community.
Israeli critics of Netanyahu and the
right-wingers' refusal to accept the two-
state approach is much blunter.
"No Israeli leader will be able to leave
Ben-Gurion Airport without a com-
mitment to two states:' Kadima's Hahn
Ramon declared.
Netanyahu, however, has consistently
opposed the idea. In 2002 he led an open
rebellion against then-Likud leader Ariel
Sharon for embracing the two-state idea.
Instead, Netanyahu emphasizes the huge
Face To Face
In an initial coalition meeting with Livni
at Jerusalem's Inbal Hotel on Sunday,
Netanyahu argued that the big issues on
the national agenda were almost certain
to be Iran, terrorism and the economic
crisis, and that peacemaking with the
Palestinians likely would take a back seat.
Therefore, he said, a formula could be
found to paper over their differences on
the two-state solution, at least until they
become relevant quite some time down
the road.
That was not enough for Livni, who is
making a clear two-state commitment
from Netanyahu the ultimate test of
whether they can work together.
Livni is convinced that she stands to
gain politically from going into the oppo-
sition. By doing so, she could argue ideol-
ogy is more important to her than minis-
terial jobs and that she really is a different
kind of politician motivated primarily by
principles, not power.
Initial surveys conducted by Kadima
pollster Kalman Guyer show that taking
the moral high ground this way could win
Livni considerable public support. As lead-
er of the opposition, moreover, she would
be able to establish herself as a national
leader and alternative prime minister. This
is one reason Labor's Ehud Barak already
has said he is determined to keep his
party in the opposition.
In her meeting with Netanyahu, Livni
was adamant about continuing to pursue
the Palestinian track.
"It was in this room that I conducted
negotiations with Abu Ala; I don't want it
to be the room in which I end them:' she
declared, referring to leading Palestinian
Authority negotiator Ahmed Qureia.
Speaking to reporters afterward, Livni
confirmed that unless Netanyahu made
major concessions in the new govern-
ment's policy guidelines, Kadima was
headed for the opposition.
Holding Court
The Likud response to Livni's moral argu-
ment for opposition is that with such huge
challenges on the horizon, she should rise
above petty personal and party political
interests for the national good.
But so far there is little pressure inside
Kadima for Livni to change her approach.
Even members of the rival camp led by
outgoing Transportation Minister Shaul
Mofaz are backing her position.
"There is no point in joining a govern-
ment that doesn't take the internationally
accepted two-state solution on board:'
Mofaz supporter Zeev Boim declared the
day after Livni's meeting with Netanyahu.
Although at this point Netanyahu's
chances of persuading Livni to join his
government seem remote, the two leaders
agreed to meet again.
The ball is very much in Netanyahu's
court. He will have to come up with con-
vincing answers on the key Kadima issues,
which besides two states for two peoples
include civil marriage and changing the
electoral system.
Otherwise, as seems likely, Netanyahu
will find himself at the head of a narrow
right-wing government, buffeted on the
international stage and squeezed domes-
tically over child allowances and other
budget allocations in a time of economic
hardship.
The choice is Netanyahu's. ❑
;Is
February 26 • 2009
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