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ESSICA ✓
JCGDPER
NEWS ANALYSIS
DEMOCRAT
Rough from page A30
return a call from any Israeli prime
minister who signed such a letter:'
Kadima negotiator Yisrael Maimon, a
former Cabinet secretary, declared.
Tough. Tested.
Effective.
A No-nonsense
Prosecutor for
Oakland County.
www.coopernow.com
1,aici for and author"
the:
Jessica Cooper for Oakland County Prosecutor Committee
30150 Telegraph Road, Suite 373 Bingham Farms, MI 48025 Phone: 248-593-6950 Fax: 248-645-1222
v
1447580
American
Technion
Society
The American Technion Society congratulates
Larry S. Jackier,
2008 Fred M. Butzel Award recipient
Maze! Toy
and
Kol Hakovod
Melvyn H. Bloom, ATS ExecutiveVice President
Dr. Stephen Laser, ATS Chairman of the Board
Joan Seidel, ATS President
Scott Leemaster, President, Detroit Chapter
Allan Gelfond, East Central Regional Director
Jo Strausz Rosen, Detroit Chapter Director
A32
October 30 • 2008
World
More Obstacles
Other challenges also made it difficult
for Livni to cobble together a coali-
tion.
Such negotiations typically take
place after elections, with a full four-
year term looming. But because of
Olmert's resignation, Livni came in
mid-term with elections no more than
two years away.
The notion of spending an abridged
term in the opposition was less of a
deterrent for prospective coalition
partners, and they consequently raised
their coalition demands. Even the
Pensioners' Party produced a docu-
ment with some $786 million worth of
new demands.
In the end, Livni said, she had no
choice but to stop the horse trading
and go for early elections.
Olmert likely will stay on as the
caretaker prime minister until a new
government is formed after the elec-
tions.
Though he is a lame duck — and a
disgraced one at that, having resigned
under a cloud of corruption investiga-
tions — Olmert may press ahead with
his peacemaking efforts to turn the
next election into a referendum on
peace.
Olmert also could step down and
hand over the premiership to Livni,
giving her the incumbency advantage
going into the next election. Some
Kadima leaders are talking openly
about urging Olmert to make such a
move, but Olmert has not offered any
indication that he is willing to con-
sider it.
Fast Vote?
Livni wants to hold new elections
quickly.
According to law, a majority in the
Knesset could have coalesced around
another candidate for prime minister
and thereby averted the need for early
elections, but President Shimon Peres
announced Monday that after meeting
with party leaders, no such possibility
existed.
Elections must be held by mid-
February, but the Knesset could speed
or slow down the process by passing a
law to dissolve itself and set a precise
election date.
Livni prefers this route and has
instructed the Kadima caucus chair-
man to submit a bill with an election
date as early as possible.
Livni likely will base her campaign
on her squeaky-clean image in an
era of political corruption and argue
that of all the candidates, only she can
restore the public's confidence in its
government and politics.
She will cite her failure to form a
coalition as evidence of her high-
principled approach, and her refusal
to sign the "Jerusalem letter" with
Shas as proof of her sincere com-
mitment to peacemaking with the
Palestinians.
Netanyahu will emphasize his expe-
rience, political smarts and special
economic skills — he is a former
finance minister — in light of the
global financial crisis. He also will
claim to be the only candidate who
can be counted upon to preserve a
united Jerusalem.
Labor Party leader Ehud Barak,
who was pilloried in the media for
demanding special powers in his
coalition talks with Livni, will stress
his experience as a former prime min-
ister as well as Labor's long leadership
tradition.
Strategic Hurdle
Labor and Kadima are facing a serious
tactical dilemma: They will be corn-
peting for the same center-left political
space, but if they attack each other too
viciously, Netanyahu will be the main
beneficiary.
In the latest polls, Livni is slightly
ahead of Netanyahu, with Barak a very
distant third.
A Yediot Achronot poll gives Kadima
29 seats, Likud 26 and Labor 11;
Ma'ariv has Kadima earning 31 seats,
Likud 29 and Labor 11.
In the Yediot poll, the left-center
and right-religious blocs are tied with
60 seats each in the 120-member
Knesset; Ma'ariv has the left-center
ahead, 61-59. The next prime minister
needs a minimum of 61 seats in his or
her coalition.
Both polls show that the three large
secular parties — Kadima, Likud and
Labor — could easily form a national
unity government of 66 to 71 seats on
their own.
That means Yishai, who sparked
the election by refusing to join Livni's
coalition, could find himself out in the
cold.
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