C ome andi

see \x/horh s new

chuLot's

Revisiting The Jewish Vote

Los Angeles/JTA

ewish voting patterns over the
past 75 years have tended to be
fixed, especially in recent presi-
dential elections, with the Democrats
winning 75-80 percent of the Jewish
vote. Despite
this, November's
presidential con-
test has raised
some challenging
options and inter-
esting possibili-
ties.
Selectively
during the past
Steven
three decades,
Windmueller
Republican
Special
have created
Commentary
inroads into the
Democratic
Jewish voting bloc. Ronald Reagan did
so in 1980, garnering 38 percent of the
Jewish vote, while President George
H.W. Bush secured more than 30 per-
cent in his 1988 campaign. The current
President Bush raised his total from 19
percent of the Jewish vote in 2000 to 25
percent in 2004.
Generally, in periods of high eco-
nomic or social anxiety, voters tend to
return to their traditional base; for Jews
this would normally be the Democratic
nominee. Due to a number of elements,
however, the Jewish vote is likely to be
even more contested than in recent elec-
tions.
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is hov-
ering at about 60 percent of the Jewish
vote. A shift of even 20 percent of the
Jewish vote could have an impact. In
highly contested swing states, including
Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, such a
scenario is very possible.
Among the factors: a possible reces-
sion at home, an unpopular war abroad,
and a level of unease about the demise
of America's economic and political
standing in the world.

j

Red And Blue
The candidacy of Sen. John McCain,
R-Ariz., may represent for a signifi-
cant element of Jewish voters a type of
stabilizing influence. Unlike President
Bush at the start of the 2000 campaign,
McCain has had a long connection with
the pro-Israel.
Jewish voters in "Red States" take on
some of the electoral characteristics of
core Republicans. Primarily concerned
with Israel's security, this cohort of

Jewish voters embraces the current
president's commitments to Israel and
support the continuation of a strong
U.S. military and diplomatic focus with-
in the Middle East designed to contain
the growing influence and threat of Iran
and its allies.
Yet McCain's support for overturning
Roe v. Wade, his health-care propos-
als and other domestic positions have
meant opposition among key Jewish
constituencies.
"Blue State" Jewish voters have a
multi-issue agenda, encompassing a
woman's right of choice, an aggressive
environmental policy, gay rights and
other selective social and public-policy
concerns. Many of these Blue State Jews
were early supporters of Barack Obama.
Obama may represent a fundamen-
tally different type of
American politician
as he draws upon his
organizing instincts,
the influence within his
life of religious and cul-
tural values, the rhetoric
and style of the black
church and his sense of
American politics and
history. This appeals
to a particular type of
Jewish liberal instinct,
especially for those Jews
who are ideologically
driven, having either
grown up in political
or social "movements"
themselves or whose
family roots are tied to the labor union
tradition.
Obama represents a new, cosmopoli-
tan generation of leadership, someone
who is well educated, articulate and
with a diverse set of life experiences.
As a result, he appeals to an intellectual
class of Jewish voters.
The "gentrified liberal" sector of the
emerging new Jewish class of wealthy
technologists and business entrepre-
neurs find both Obama's style and mes-
sage in concert with their own social
values and political instincts. Similarly,
Obama for some reflects the continu-
ation of the traditional anti-war/anti-
establishment faction within American
politics, thus his rhetoric also appeals
to this element within the Jewish com-
munity.
There is a countervailing force within
the Jewish community as a result of the
revelations involving the political views
of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah

crE

Wright, and the failure of the candidate
to repudiate and step away earlier from
his association with Trinity United
Church of Christ.
Similarly, Republican efforts to paint
him as an unreliable supporter of Israel
surrounded by unsympathetic Middle
East policy advisers and his publicly
expressed willingness to hold direct
negotiations with the leader of Iran also
have hurt Obama's standing within cer-
tain Jewish circles.

Looking Ahead
While a solid majority of Jews remains
in the Democratic fold, their voting pat-
terns and political inclinations seem to
reflect an array of policy interests and
represent a changing set of priorities.
Demographic changes within the
Jewish community itself
add to this new complex-
ity. The emergence of a
growing segment of new
American Jewish voters
includes recent emigres
from Russia, Israel and
Iran, and the coming of
age of a younger cohort
of Orthodox Jewish
voters. All of these con-
stituencies are increas-
ingly aligned with the
Republican Party.
Jews born prior to
1945 identify in higher
numbers with the
Democratic Party than
those born between
1946 and 1964, and those born between
1965 and 1983. Fifty-five percent of
the pre-1945 cohort identifies with the
Democrats and 15 percent with the
Republicans. Identification with the
Democrats drops to 43 percent in the
case of the younger cohorts.
One of the primary characteristics of
Jewish voters wherever they are found
on the political spectrum is that as a
group there is an overwhelming nega-
tive reaction to mismanagement, scan-
dal or the absence of effective leader-
ship. The lack of competency is a value
shared with other key constituencies.
The current disgust with government
has been a significant contributor to the
one-third of Jewish voters who describe
themselves as "independent!'

This year, due
to a number
of elements,
the Jewish vote
is likely to be
more contested
than in recent
elections.

❑

Dr. Steven Windmueller is the dean of the
Hebrew Union College Jewish Institute of
Religion in Los Angeles and adjunct profes-
sor of Jewish communal studies.

V cignicerit

-

Peryl

ono! Yellow Diamond

drop earrings-

$ 6,250

"Goldi-Rocks."

scifillorr

JEWELLERS / GEMOLOGISTS

across Coolidge from the Somerset Collection

3001 West Big Beaver, Suite 112
Troy, Michigan 48084
248.649.1122 / 800.SCHUBOT

schubot.com

MEMBER

AMERICAN
GEM
SOCIETY'

1436880

October 9 2008

A37