L

ear In Review

NEWS ANALYSIS

First Round

Livni wins Kadima contest with slim margin of victory.

Leslie Susser

Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

W

ith her narrow victory in the
Kadima Party primary last week,
Tzipi Livni's next major task will
be assembling a coalition government so she
can become prime minister.
Then all she'll have on her plate is figuring
out how to arrest the threat to Israel from Iran,
resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a
historic peace deal, neutralize the threat on
Israel's northern border from Hezbollah and
run the country.
If she ever gets to it.
The immediate challenge Livni faces is
demonstrating — both to the Israeli people
and to KadimSs prospective coalition partners
— that her 431-vote margin of victory in the
Sept. 17 primary is enough for her to assert her
leadership and bring partners into a coalition
government.
In the wee hours of Thursday morning,
Judge Dan Arbel announced that Livni beat the
runner-up in the race, Transportation Minister
Shaul Mofaz, by a mere 431 votes — 43.1 per-
cent to Mofaz's 42 percent.
Lawyers for Mofaz initially announced he
might challenge the results, but Mofaz later
called Livni to congratulate her and conceded
defeat.
Early exit polling had given Livni a double-
digit margin of victory.
The two other contenders in the primary
finished far behind, with Interior Minister Meir
Sheetrit winning 8.5 percent of the vote and
Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter garner-
ing 6.5 percent.
In the vote at 114 polling stations throughout
the country, fewer than 33,000 people, or about
54 percent of Kadima members, voted for a

party leader to succeed Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert — a relatively low turnout by Israeli
standards.
Even so, Livni complained of "congestion"
at polling stations and argued for an extension
of voting time by an hour. In a compromise,
Kadima decided to extend voting by 30 min-
utes.
Livni's victory is historic in several respects.
She won the first-ever primary held by Kadima,
the 3-year-old political party founded by Ariel
Sharon. Her election also brings an end to the
Ehud Olmert era, though he will stay on as
caretaker prime minister until a coalition is
assembled. Olmert, who is facing corruption
charges, formally resigned Sunday.
And if she succeeds in cobbling together a
coalition, Livni would become Israers second
female prime minister, following Golda Meir.
Livni will have 42 days to form a govern-
ment. If she fails, Israel will be headed for new
general elections.
She has made it clear that she wants to base
her new government on the existing coalition
— Kadima, Labor, Shas and the Pensioners
parties — with the possible addition of other
parties such as Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael
Beiteinu on the right, Meretz on the left and the
Orthodox Torah Judaism Party.
Livni wants to limit the current transi-
tion period, which she sees as a potentially
unhealthy period of a two-headed government.
Kadima leaders argue that there already is a
functioning government and there is no reason
it shouldn't continue its work. They maintain
that all the Labor Party asked Kadima to do
was change its leader, and now that the party
has done that, continuing with the present
coalition shouldn't be a problem.
But Livni's main coalition partners have
no intention of giving her an easy ride. Labor
argues that a prime minister effectively elected
by only 17,000 or so Israelis has no legitimacy

and that the Israeli people as
a whole should be allowed to
have their say in new elections.
Likud leader Benjamin
Netanyahu agrees. Polls show
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni greets supporters as she
Likud would win many more
arrives to cast her vote in Tel Aviv.
than its current share of 12
Knesset seats if new general
elections were held, possibly even winning the
assert the rule of law.
plurality and catapulting Netanyahu back into
As for Gaza, Livni warns that she will consid-
the office of prime minister.
er a large-scale ground offensive if Hamas uses
Shas is also threatening new elections unless the current truce to smuggle in huge quantities
Livni meets its demands for more gener-
of arms.
ous child allowances and a pledge to keep
•Ascertaining the seriousness of the Syrian
Jerusalem off the negotiating agenda with the
track Ever since Israel and Syria started con-
Palestinians.
ducting new peace feelers under Turkish aus-
If Livni fails to form a coalition, an election
pices in January 2007, Livni has not been in the
could be held as early as next spring. If she suc- loop. She has argued that by going public with
ceeds, she could govern for a year or two before
the talks, Israel has provided Syria a degree of
going into a new election with the incumbency international legitimacy without getting very
advantage.
much in return.
During the campaign, Livni gave a slew of
•Dealing quietly with the Iranian nuclear
interviews in which she spelled out her priori-
threat: Livni says as far as Israel is concerned,
ties:
"all options are on the table" and that to say
•Moving ahead on the Palestinian track
more would be irresponsible.
Over the past few months, she and the former
•Introducing a new style of cleaner govern-
Palestinian prime minister, Ahmed Qureia, have ment: Livni, who won the leadership race at
been drafting a full-fledged Israeli-Palestinian
least partly because of her squeaky dean image,
peace agreement, Both sides say that, although
will want to signal early on that she intends to
they have made progress, dosing the wide gaps
introduce a new style of governing.
that still exist will take time.
Livni will want to dean up party politics by
Once Livni is installed as prime minister, one breaking the power of the Kadima vote con-
key issue will become more difficult to resolve:
tractors, who drafted people en masse to vote
refugees. Livni repeatedly has said that she will
for a particular candidate. One idea is to set a
not agree to any resettlement in Israel proper
minimum membership period — perhaps 18
of Palestinian refugees because allowing in just
months — before party members get voting
one Palestinian refugee would chip away at
rights.
Israel's legitimacy as a Jewish state.
By electing Livni, Kadima voters seemed
Livni might ease conditions on the ground
to be saying enough of the generals at the top
for Palestinians by dismantling illegal settler
and enough of wheeler-dealer politics. Livni,
outposts in the West Bank, something that suc-
dubbed Mrs. Clean, is seen as a straight-think-
cessive Israeli prime ministers have failed to do.
ing, scandal-free civilian dearly out to promote
She argues that any government she heads will
Israel's best interests.

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