IRAN INTRIGUE
Mideast Target
Campaigns spread Iran message as Congress moves on sanctions.
Ron Kampeas
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Washington
T
he mounting anxiety over Iran's
nuclear program is sparking
campaign chatter over a possible
Israeli strike and prompting a bipartisan
effort to revive long-stalled sanctions leg-
islation in the U.S. Congress.
Time is running out, say advocates
of sanctions, with some wondering if a
nuclear deadline for the Islamic Republic
looms as early as next year. But an elec-
tion or three — in the United States, Israel
and Iran — seem to stand in the way of
coordinated action, and conventional wis-
dom says a U.S. president who is perhaps
the lamest duck in decades is hardly in a
position to carry through with meaningful
action.
Against this backdrop, attention has
turned increasingly to the possibility of
Israel launching a pre-emptive strike,
with reports claiming that U.S. officials
have told Jerusalem not to take such
action. At the same time, however, both
vice-presidential candidates have said in
recent weeks that the United States should
respect any Israeli decision on the mat-
ter and both campaigns were discussing
their Iran policies with Jewish communal
leaders.
In the Congress, escalating concerns
about Iran have prompted Democrats and
Republicans to set aside sharp election-
year differences to coordinate with Israel
and the pro-Israel lobby to push through
sanctions legislation before year's end,
including the Iran Sanctions Enabling Act
sponsored by presidential candidate Sen.
Barack Obama, D-Ill.
The measure would mandate the publi-
cation every six months of a list of compa-
nies invested in Iran's energy and defense
sectors in order to facilitate divestment
from Iran by state pension funds. It also
protects from lawsuits fund managers who
divest from Iran.
Obama's bill and the Iran
Counterproliferation Act are under consid-
eration for attachment to a defense autho-
rization measure that must be passed this
term.
The bills have been held up until
now because of resistance from the
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September 25 • 2008
iN
Bush administration and congressional
Republicans for myriad reasons: Some
business interests have opposed the coun-
terproliferation bill because it would close
loopholes that have allowed American
companies to continue working with Iran
through foreign-owned subsidiaries.
Additionally, the Bush administration
has aggressively opposed limitations
on its executive prerogative in foreign
policy. Pro-Israel insiders say that some
Republicans have opposed the legislation
because they don't want to give Obama,
the Democrats' presidential nominee, a
legislative victory in an election year.
But many of those differences have been
set aside in recent weeks, pro-Israel insid-
ers say.
Dan Shapiro, an Obama foreign policy
adviser and top Jewish outreach coordina-
tor, confirmed that Obama's bill, which
would offer tort protections to pensions
that divest from Iran, is likely to be part of
the defense authorization measure that is
set to pass. "It has the support of several
dozen senators;' Shapiro said.
He would not, however, count out resis-
tance from the White House.
Earlier sanctions have had an impact:
Businesses increasingly are reluctant to
invest in Iran in part because of sanctions
Bush has implemented on Iranian banks
through executive order.
The perceived need for some kind of
action has been exacerbated by the lame-
duck status of Bush, who is exiting office
as one of the least popular presidents in
modern history, and last week's primaries
in Israel. The Israeli vote is likely to be
followed by weeks or months of political
realignments ahead of new general elec-
tions.
In addition, Iran is set to hold presiden-
tial elections next June, raising hopes of
ousting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose
fiery rhetoric has fanned much of the
anxiety about a nuclear Iran.
According to experts, the next president
— whether it is Obama or U.S. Sen. John
McCain, R-Ariz. — is likely to ramp up the
pressure on Iran. But differences persist in
how each man would go about increasing
the pressure.
A bipartisan slate of five former sec-
retaries of state — including Henry
Kissinger, now a McCain adviser — met
last week under CNN auspices and agreed
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke at Columbia University last September, and is now
scheduled to speak to the U.N.
that talks with Iran would likely be on the
agenda next year, whoever is president.
McCain repeatedly has criticized Obama's
willingness to talk with Iranian leaders
and painted the Democratic candidate as
dangerously naive on the matter.
Obama is considering how best to
establish an international commitment to
further isolate Iran; McCain is considering
ways to encourage internal Iranian dissent
toward regime change.
Both campaigns made their case on
Iran last week to segments of the Jewish
community. On Wednesday, McCain's
senior advisers met with Jewish backers in
Arlington, Va., while Obama himself took
part in a conference call with rabbinical
leaders.
"This is an extremely important
issue, an extremely serious issue, and
an extremely urgent issue Tony Lake,
Obama's top national security adviser, said
at an event organized by the Center for
U.S. Global Engagement in Denver during
the Democratic National Convention last
month. "It could well lead to the worst cri-
sis that we will see over the next five years
because the development of an Iranian
nuclear weapon will present a huge threat
to the security of Israel, to others in the
region, to the Europeans, including the
Russians, and many others!'
Obama wants to see "progress between
now and next January," Lake said, but
already is planning action "as soon as he
takes office!'
Dennis Ross, the former top Middle
East negotiator under Bush's father and
Bill Clinton and now a senior Obama
adviser, said the candidate's preferred
approach would be "serious sticks and
serious carrots" — in that order.
"You've got to change the formula from
weak sticks and weak carrots, which is not
enough to concentrate the Iranian mind in
terms of the negotiations and make them
change behavior;' Ross said.
An Obama administration would rally
the international community to cut off
refined petroleum exports to Iran, hit-
ting almost half of its gas supply, and end
investment in the Islamic Republic's anti-
quated energy infrastructure.
The obstacles to such a strategy remain
China and Russia, which maintain exten-
sive business contacts with Iran. Ross
described a strategy of first targeting
China, which depends heavily on Iran
for its oil supply. China, he noted, is even
more dependent on Saudi oil, yet no seri-
ous effort has been made to recruit Saudi
Arabia into leveraging the Chinese into
isolating Iran, even though the Saudis
have even more to fear from a nuclear Iran
than Israel.
Ross said Obama also became inter-