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NEWS ANALYSIS

Silent Rockets?

Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

A

Photo by Matty Stern/B PH Imag es

Cease-fire with Hamas has questions.

six-month cease-fire
between Israel and llamas,
due to go into effect June 19,
could help create conditions for wider
peacemaking between Israel and the
Palestinians.
But there are two huge potential
stumbling blocks: Israeli generals
doubt whether the tahadiyeh, or truce,
will hold and the chances that llamas
and the more moderate Fatah, which
controls the West Bank, will work in
tandem for a wider peace deal are
remote.
When llamas violently took control
of the Gaza Strip a year ago, Israeli
and American leaders saw a window
of opportunity for peacemaking with
the relatively moderate Fatah leaders.
A year later, the situation is more
complicated. Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas hasn't
had the authority or power to deliver
on a deal that would include only the
West Bank, let alone a full-fledged
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice meets with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
peace-abiding Palestinian state in
in Jerusalem on June 15.
the West Bank and Gaza. After some
2,000 Kassam rockets and mortar
shells blasting Israel's southern towns, it
Hamas dropped its insistence on link-
leaders know they face the prospect of a
has become clear that as long as Hamas
age between a cease-fire in Gaza and one
major Israeli ground incursion that could
controls Gaza, it can scuttle any deal by
in the West Bank, and Israel gave up its
deal a crushing blow to their military
rocketing Israeli civilians.
demand for Shalit's release as part of an
infrastructure. They also hope that, if
Egypt announced Tuesday that the
initial cease-fire deal.
the lull holds, Israel will lift its economic
cease-fire deal it has been brokering
llamas' compromise on the West Bank,
blockade and open border crossing points,
between Israel and llamas would go into
where Israel insists on freedom of action
including the Rafah crossing into Egypt.
effect Thursday morning. Israeli forces
against radical militants, constitutes a
For Israel, a cease-fire would enable it to
will stop initiating attacks in Gaza and
major retreat. The implication is that
avoid the inevitable casualties of a major
llamas will ensure an end to cross-border
Hamas does not speak for the Palestinian
ground operation, ensure quiet for civil-
shelling, Egyptian mediators said.
people as a whole but only for Gaza.
ians in the Gaza perimeter who have been
Israeli officials had said earlier a truce
Israel agreed to decouple the cease-fire
under constant rocket attack for more
was imminent and that in addition to a
and Shalit's release on the understand-
than seven years and create conditions for
suspension of hostilities, it would involve
ing that immediately after the lull takes
Shalit's release.
easing a blockade on Gaza. But Israel has
hold, the parties will begin intensive
Hamas attacks in recent weeks have
demanded progress in talks on the release negotiations through Egypt on a prisoner
become more intense after the militiamen
of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, a soldier held hostage
exchange.
received Iranian 120mm mortars, which
by Hamas, for Gaza's border crossing with
Over the past few months, llamas and
are more accurate, more deadly and have a
Egypt to open.
other militant groups have been taking a
longer range than the homemade Kassam
For weeks, Egypt has been mediating a
pounding from the Israel Defense Forces,
rockets they had been using.
temporary lull in hostilities between Israel losing an average of four members a day.
Israelis are worried that llamas will use
and llamas. In a breakthrough a few days
That pounding continued Tuesday, even as the lull to bring in heavy weapons, build
ago, both sides agreed to make major con- the cease-fire was announced.
bunkers, move up forces and lay mines
cessions.
Moreover, without a cease-fire, llamas
close to the border fence. In short, llamas

will be able to make major strides toward
creating a military infrastructure similar
to that of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah
in Lebanon.
They are worried as well that the
Egyptians, even with special new
American equipment for locating tun-
nels, will not prevent large-scale weapons
smuggling into Gaza during the lull.
Moreover, the Israelis are not sure that
Hamas can be trusted, once the military
pressure is off, to make a deal on Shalit.
The real threat of a ground action may
have been a factor in llamas' decision to
support the cease-fire. If the cease-fire
holds, it could help create the conditions
for an agreement between Israel and the
more moderate West Bank leadership.

Peace 'On The Shelf'
The answer to Abbas' perceived weak-
ness has been what the parties are calling
a "shelf agreement" — Israel and the
moderate Palestinians, with American
help, are trying to reach a deal on Israeli-
Palestinian peace that remains "on the
shelf" until conditions are ripe for its
implementation.
This suits Israel because it shows the
international community how far the
Jewish state is prepared to go for a peace
deal without actually having to make any
concessions. And it suits the Palestinians,
who intend to pocket whatever conces-
sions Israel makes as a point of departure
for further gains if and when implementa-
tion becomes possible.
The more moderate West Bank
Palestinians have been pressing for
Israel to start putting down on paper
the agreed elements of a peace agree-
ment. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice's recent visit to Israel, her sixth
since the Annapolis peace conference
last November, was intended to help this
process.
With the December target date set by
President Bush for an Israeli-Palestinian
agreement only six months away, the U.S.
administration is urging both sides to
make quicker progress.
Rice seems to be rapidly approaching
the point where she will prepare to start
exerting pressure on both sides. This
week, she was highly critical of new Israeli
construction projects in Jerusalem and the
West Bank.

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June 19 • 2008

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