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PM's Scandal
Early elections in Israel likely as signs point to Olmert's ouster.
Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
Jerusalem
T
he media and the politi-
cal establishment in Israel
already have decided: Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert is through.
The cover on Ma'ariv's weekend
political magazine shows a framed
portrait of a sad-looking Olmert on
the wall of a government office with
the caption "Ehud Olmert — Prime
Minister 2006-2008."
Morris Talansky: Bringing down Olmert?
Now his Kadima Party is prepar-
ing for a new leadership contest and
Israel could be heading toward new
can simultaneously run the govern-
elections.
ment and deal with his personal issues:'
The political fallout comes in the
Barak said.
wake of the latest corruption scandal
Although Barak did not place a dead-
involving the prime minister, this one
line on his ultimatum, his move was
alleging that Olmert took improper
enough to trigger a process that almost
funds from an American fundraiser.
certainly will lead to Olmert's ouster.
There is wide consensus that Olmert's With the defection of Labor or some
legal team made a major strategic
other disaffected coalition partner a dis-
blunder in not cross-examining the
tinct possibility, Kadima has been left
American, Morris Talansky, immediate-
with no alternative but to gear up for a
ly after his damning pre-trial testimony new leadership primary.
May 27 against the prime minister.
Given the huge wave of public senti-
Talansky painted a picture of enve-
ment against him, it is obvious that
lopes stuffed with dollars for Olmert's
Olmert cannot run. That has cleared the
personal use. The prime minister's law-
way for a four-way race with Foreign
yers claim they can explain or disprove
Minister Tzipi Livni, Transportation
each and every item, that Olmert did
Minister Shaul Mofaz, Internal Security
not commit any crime and that he only
Minister Avi Dichter and Housing
Minister Meir Shetreet.
did what all Israeli politicians legiti-
mately do to finance election campaigns
Kadima's 65,000-plus members will
choose a new leader probably some
or speaking engagements abroad.
time in September. Olmert has asked
But the fact that the lawyers decided
only that the moves be delayed suffi-
to defer their cross-examination of
ciently to give him a chance to clear his
Talansky until July 17 left a pall of
unchallenged allegations in the air. This
name, enabling him to leave office and a
led to scathing press against Olmert and political career spanning more than 40
years with some dignity.
demands in the political echelon for his
resignation or, at least, temporary leave
Two possibilities emerge for a govern-
ment without Olmert: The new leader
of absence.
Tainted by unrefuted allegations
of Kadima could form a coalition based
on the parties in the current Knesset, or
of corruption, Olmert no longer has
there could be new elections.
the moral authority to make major
The Likud Party, which is leading in
decisions on peace or war, the critics
the polls, wants new elections immedi-
charged.
Labor Party leader Ehud Barak fired
ately. Labor and Kadima prefer building
a new coalition and putting off elections
the first shot in the political arena.
The day after Talansky's testimony, the
for as long as possible.
defense minister issued an ultimatum:
Shas is the problem for Labor and
Kadima. The fervently Orthodox party
Kadima must change its leader if the
has indicated it would not be happy
party wanted to continue its coalition
to serve under Livni, the front-runner
partnership with Labor.
"I don't believe the prime minister
to take over for Olmert. Shas also is
demanding increased child allow-
ances as a condition for joining any
new coalition, which without Shas is
not possible.
So the smart money is on elections
within the next six months. Former
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom,
among the Likud's most astute politi-
cians, already has put forth a bill for
the dissolution of the Knesset, with
Nov. 11 as the favored election day.
Although there are several candi-
dates to succeed Olmert, the front-
runners are Livni, Barak and the
Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu.
Livni, who could become Israel's
second female prime minister after
Golda Meir, is perceived as squeaky
clean and thus would have a head start
at the polls after the public revulsion
over the Olmert-Talansky scandal.
Although her opponents denigrate
her experience, she has a long record
of public service. Livni served in the
Mossad intelligence agency in the early
1980s, and later as the director of the
Government Companies Authority.
She entered politics in 1999 and has
been the minister of immigrant absorp-
tion, of justice and of foreign affairs.
Livni is committed to peace with the
Palestinians and is conducting negotia-
tions with the former Palestinian prime
minister, Ahmad Qureia.
Mofaz is a former chief of staff and
defense minister who led Operation
Defensive Shield, which broke the brunt
of the second Palestinian intifada in the
West Bank in April 2002. He is one of
the more hawkish members of Kadima,
sees peacemaking as a process that will
take generations and holds that for now,
the conflict must simply be managed.
Dichter also has a security back-
ground, having served as the Shin Bet
chief and now as minister of internal
security. He is the new kid on the block,
and pundits believe Dicher eventually
will throw his weight behind Livni.
Shetreet, a whiz kid from a poor
Sephardi family, served as the mayor of
Yavne while still in his 20s and became
a Knesset member at 33. He headed
the Jewish Agency for Israel and served
in various governments as minister of
finance, of justice and of housing.
In 1999, Shetreet made an unsuccess-
ful bid for the Likud leadership against
Ariel Sharon and Olmert.
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June 5 2008
1374860
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