Focus On Iran

Cheney's three-day trip to Israel looks to the East.

Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

W

ith U.S. Vice President Dick
Cheney in Israel this week
talking about Iran, the big
question was whether President Bush
would be willing to use military force in
the waning days of his presidency to stop
Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The answer from most Israeli intelli-
gence analysts: not likely.
They say the chances of a U.S. military
strike against Iran or its nuclear installa-
tions — whether out of Bush's view of a
strategic imperative or conviction that no
one else will do the job — are remote.
Along with talks on Iran, Cheney
focused during his visit to Israel on March
22-24 on two other key issues: the pos-
sibility of Israel-Syria peace talks and the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
On these, too, time seems to be running
out for the Bush administration. But it
was the Iranian dilemma that topped the
agenda in two meetings Cheney held with
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and
one with Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Barak, arguing that a nuclear-armed
Iran would threaten regional and inter-
national stability, said no option should
be taken off the table, including the use
of force. Israel and the United States now
believe they have identified an Iranian
"smoking gun." For the Americans, the
"smoking gun" no longer is the capacity
to arm long-range missiles with nuclear
warheads but simply the enrichment of
uranium, which serves no purpose other
than the manufacture of nuclear weapons.
Indeed, if the U.S. National Intelligence
Estimate published last December sug-
gested a chasm between Israeli and
American assessments, Israeli officials say
the views of both sides now are almost
identical.
They agree that Iran is trying to speed
up its uranium enrichment program.
Israel estimates that Iran will be able to
build a bomb by late next year or early
2010. Israel also figures that the chances
of the Bush administration ordering a
pre-emptive military strike against Iran
are virtually zero. The only such scenario
the Israelis envision is if the Democratic

A26

March 27 • 2008

iN

presidential candidates
appear to be far ahead
of their Republican
rival and Bush senses
a "now or never" strike
option.
Even in these
circumstances,
the Israelis say, an
American strike is
highly unlikely. Still,
the Israelis are hop-
ing that the hard-line
Cheney will push the
envelope — a role he
reportedly played vis-
a-vis the U.S. invasion
Dick Cheney
of Iraq. One official
said Cheney is seen as
"a significant player" who could influence
"serious issues that cannot wait!"
The debate over what to do about Iran
will continue next month in Washington
when top American and Israeli officials
meet for another scheduled round of
"strategic dialogue' On the Syrian issue,
significant nuanced differences have
emerged.
While the Bush administration does not
trust Syrian President Bashar Assad, Israel
believes it might be able to work with him.
Israel and the United States recognize the
possibility of a huge strategic gain by pry-
ing Syria away from the Iranian axis.
In his talks with Israeli leaders, how-
ever, Cheney made it clear that he did not
think this was possible. Indeed, the vice
president said the United States had evi-
dence that Syria and Iran were doing all
they could through Hezbollah in Lebanon
and Hamas in Gaza to undermine Israeli-
Palestinian peace talks.

Syrian Cooling
While a few weeks ago Israel received new
signals from Assad that he was willing to
talk, the Syrian position cooled quickly as
it has frequently in the past.
Israeli analysts now expect little move-
ment on the Syrian track at least until
after the Bush administration leaves office
next January. Assad, they say, would be
prepared to make peace with Israel and
break with Iran only if the United States
underwrites the deal with strong econom-
ic and diplomatic support.
The current thinking has it that Assad

is biding his time in
the belief that he'll get
a better deal from the
next American president
— whoever is elected.
With 10 months to go
in its tenure, the Bush
administration is invest-
ing considerable energy
on the Palestinian front.
The Annapolis confer-
ence last November was
followed by a flurry of
high-level visits to the
region — Bush himself
in January, Secretary of
State Condoleeza Rice
in early March and now
Cheney.
The impression, though, is that the
visits have been all process and little
substance. A peace deal by the end of the
year — the stated goal of the Americans,
Israelis and the Palestinian Authority
— seems highly unrealistic.
Israelis and Palestinians have not been
able to make significant progress on their
own, and the United States has not been
prepared to force either side to make con-
cessions.
Indeed, after his talks with the Israelis,
Cheney made it clear that this administra-
tion will not lean on Israel. "The United
States will never pressure Israel to take
steps that threaten its security;' he said.
Cheney warned the Palestinians that
ongoing terror could cost them their
chance for statehood.
"Terror and rockets do not merely
kill innocent civilians; they also kill the
legitimate hopes and aspirations of the
Palestinian people he said. The lack of
progress in the peace talks has led to wide-
spread disillusionment on the West Bank.
A recent survey by leading Palestinian
pollster Khalil Shikaki showed a sharp
increase in support for terrorist violence
and a pervasive skepticism about the
chances for peace with Israel based on the
principle of two states for two peoples.
According to the poll, 84 percent of
Palestinians supported the terrorist shoot-
ing spree earlier this month in which eight
students were killed at the Mercaz HaRav
yeshivah in Jerusalem. That is a sign of
just how radicalized Palestinian society
has become. In the mid-1990s, polls

showed Palestinian support for suicide
bombings at less than 20 percent.
Although most Palestinians still say
they want a two-state solution, few believe
it will happen soon. Shikaki attributes the
dismal poll numbers to dashed Palestinian
hopes raised by Annapolis.
"What happened after Annapolis?"
Shikaki fumed. "Israeli settlement con-
struction is on the rise, daily life under
the Israeli military has become worse,
the number of checkpoints has in fact
increased and what Palestinians hear from
their leaders every day is that permanent-
status negotiations are going nowhere."
Cheney met with Palestinian leaders
in Ramallah, who asked him to pressure
Israel to halt settlement expansion. Some
Israeli experts are predicting a new inti-
fada.
"The ground is on fire and Israel is
blind to what is happening:' said Bar-Ilan
University's Menachem Klein, an expert
on Palestinian affairs. What the current
American administration is able to do in
its last few months in office could be criti-
cal.
American success in pushing the peace
process forward could mean a measure of
stability. Failure could mean another hor-
rific round of escalating Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. ❑

ZOA Scholarships
Scholarship grants for 2008 study in
Israel are being offered by the Zionist
Organization of America Scholarship
Committee. Co-chairs are Beverly Baker,
Toby Schlussel, Leora Bar-Levav and
Sabina Heller.
Applications are available at the ZOA
office, 6735 Telegraph Road, Suite 350, in
Bloomfield Township.
Each applicant must submit an appli-
cation and an essay on "What Israel and
Zionism Mean to Me:' the cost of their
study in Israel and two recommendation
letters from Jewish teachers or rabbis.
Please provide a letter of acceptance
from a bona fide Zionist institution.
Primary consideration will be given to the
students with Zionist motivations and ide-
als. Application deadline is May 19.
For information, contact Lisa Glazer at
the ZOA, (248) 282-0088 or list@mizoa.
org.