Failed Battlefield Strategy

Winograd: Israel failed in war, but Olmert acted in good faith.

Roy Eitan
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

I

n the year and a half since Israel's
failures in the Second Lebanon War,
Ehud Olmert has weathered inces-
sant criticism that, unlike many Israeli
leaders, he's no ex-general. But this very
lack of military experience paradoxi-
cally may have spared the prime min-
ister the full brunt of a commission of
inquiry's censure and saved his political
career.
The long-awaited final report by
the Winograd Commission, published
Jan. 30, painted a dismal picture of
Israel's 34-day offensive waged against
Lebanon's Hezbollah militia in the sum-
mer of 2006. It said the war was des-
perately lacking in strategies, relevant
tactics and even proper communica-
tion between the army's top brass and
Olmert's government.
"Overall, we regard
the Second Lebanon
War as a serious
missed opportunity:'
the panel's chairman,
retired Judge Eliahu
Winograd, said at a
news conference car-
ried live on Israeli TV
Ehud Olmert
and radio. "Israel initi-
ated a long war, which
ended without its clear military victory.
"A semi-military organization of a few
thousand men resisted, for a few weeks,
the strongest army in the Middle East,
which enjoyed full air superiority and size
and technology advantages!"

Olmert's Gamble
But while the five-member panel said
Israel went to war without sufficient delib-
eration after Hezbollah abducted two of
its soldiers on July 12, 2006, it presented
a kinder view of the Olmert government's
biggest and most controversial gamble: an
11th-hour ground offensive in southern
Lebanon waged even as a cease-fire was
being hammered out at the U.N. Security
Council.
The report said that move, which cost
the lives of 33 soldiers, did not signifi-
cantly repel Hezbollah or improve truce
terms. But it presented this primarily as
a function of the poor fighting capability
of the armed forces, voicing confidence

)252

Olmert's centrist Kadima Party heads
a coalition government with a strong
parliamentary majority capable of fend-
ing off no-confidence motions. Some in
Kadima would like to challenge Olmert
one day — Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni,
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz
and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit are
among them — but they are also aware
that Olmert is favored by the U.S. as he
pursues peace talks with Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Olmert critics are still placing hopes
that Defense Minister Ehud Barak
might trigger early elections by pulling
the Labor Party — the biggest junior
partner in the coalition — out of the
government. The Channel 2 poll found
that 45 percent of Israelis think Labor
should quit the government, while 41
percent don't. Immediately after the
report's publication, Barak made no
indication that he would remove Labor
from the government.
Olmert's negotiations with Abbas are a
powerful reason for Labor, the architect of
the Oslo peace accords, to stay. And Barak,
a former prime minister who re-entered
politics only last summer after a six-year
hiatus, is seen by most analysts as still
way off from consolidating his power
base.
Barak publicly has said that, for now,
he sees his primary duty as ensuring that
the Israel Defense Forces are overhauled
to prepare for a future war. He was quoted
last week as telling Olmert's security
Cabinet that the prime minister alone
cannot be held responsible for military
failures in wartime.
"I say to you that there will be no elec-
tions," said Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-
On, an Olmert confidant in Kadima.
"The prime minister is firm in this
position. No pressure campaign will
change that!"
Another Olmert stalwart went as far
as to say that the opposition leader,
Likud leader and former Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, should join forces
with Kadima.
"Now is the time for a national unity
government, with which we can face the
challenges that face it:' said Tzahi Hanegbi,
who heads the Knesset Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee.
"The prime minister, like all Israelis,
came out of the war bruised, but there
were also achievements. Now is that time
to get over it and look ahead."--a:

npAiwon )Plist nprir25

Judge Eliahu Winograd, center, announced the war inquiry panel's findings.

Photo by Brian Handler, JTA

that Olmert and his then-defense minister, staying on.
Amir Peretz, approved the offensive in
"Responsibility means remaining, fix-
good faith.
ing, improving and continuing to lead:'
"We believe that they both acted out of
Olmert's Cabinet secretary, Oved Yehezkel,
a strong and sincere perception of what
told Army Radio.
they thought at the time was Israel's inter-
That was a strikingly different interpre-
est," Winograd said.
tation than the one given by war veterans
That, perhaps
and the families of slain
more than any other
soldiers who have cam-
statement in the 500-
paigned for Olmert's
page report, was the
ouster. They are saying,
reprieve needed by
like Winograd, that the
Olmert, who brushed
Second Lebanon War
off calls to resign
left Israel less capable
even after Peretz and
of deterring its regional
his wartime military
foes.
chief, Lt.-Gen. Dan
"Really, this report was
Halutz, stepped down
harsh enough to warrant
in disgrace.
Olmert going home said
Eliahu Winograd Elisheva Tsemach, whose
Shoring Up
son Oz was among the
The report's conclu-
war dead.
sion that Olmert acted out of his percep-
tion of Israel's best interests and that the
Staying Put
Israel Defense Forces and various levels
A poll commissioned by Israel's Channel
of government share responsibility for the 2 TV found that 56 percent of Israelis
war's failures bolstered Olmert's position.
want Olmert to quit compared to 27 per-
His coalition partners gave no indication,
cent who don't — daunting figures, but
at least initially, that the report's conclu-
nothing new to a prime minister whose
sions were sufficiently harsh to prompt
approval ratings reached single digits in
them to quit the government and thereby
the war's immediate aftermath.
hasten new elections.
But with Olmert determined to see out
Olmert's office said in a statement that
his term in office — perhaps delivering
he would spend the coming days studying a peace deal with the Palestinians and an
the report and arranging for its recom-
effective answer to Iran's nuclear program
mendations to be implemented. Aides
during that time — there is no mecha-
to the prime minister made clear he was
nism to force him out.

"Overall, we
regard the Second
Lebanon war as
a serious missed
opportunity."

February 7 • 2008

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