Meaningful Visit

Bush's Arab world tour is significant for Israel.

Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

W

of embarrassing Arab host
countries. Last year, when
a Kenyan athlete running
for Bahrain won the mara-
thon in Tiberias, the Gulf
state summarily revoked
his Bahraini citizenship
for competing in Israel.
Last week, though,
offered a significant excep-
tion to the rule: The Saudi-
owned newspaper A-Sharq
Al-Awsat ran an article
calling on the Arabs to
show greater understand-
ing for Israeli concerns.
Written by Mamoun
Fandy, an Egyptian-
born scholar at the
International Institute
of Strategic Studies in
London, the column urged
the Arabs to do much
more to convince the West
they really want peace
and stability — including
peace with Israel.
The fact that such views
Olmert dur-
were allowed to appear in
a publication connected
to the Saudi royal house
constituted a small but
possibly significant crack in the rejection-
ists' wall.
Bush on his trip also sought to
ensure that the Arab contribution to the
$7.4 billion aid package raised for the
Palestinians at last month's donor confer-
ence in Paris comes through. The largest
pledge was $500 million from the Saudis
over the next three years.
Israel has a clear interest in the money
getting to the Palestinian Authority in
the West Bank. Israeli policy is based on
sustaining the growing contrast between
an increasingly prosperous West Bank
and an economically declining Gaza
Strip. The hope is that this will help bring
down llamas in Gaza and create a large
Palestinian majority for peace.
Annapolis, Paris and Bush's current
Middle East tour are all part of this
grand peacemaking scheme. But will it be
enough in a region teeming with so many
powerful countervailing forces? ❑

ith its focus on strength-
ening the moderate
Arab coalition against
Iran, President Bush's tour of the
Persian Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia
and Egypt could prove extremely
significant for Israel.
From an Israeli perspective, the
three key elements were isolating
Iran, coaxing moderate Arab coun-
tries into moving toward normaliza-
tion with Israel and getting oil-rich
Arab states to honor their financial
pledges to the Palestinians.
Progress on all or some of these
issues would significantly boost
Israeli foreign policy goals.
On Iran, Bush's rhetoric was
uncompromising. In a major
policy statement in Abu Dhabi, he
described Tehran as a threat to world
-- -----
peace and called on America's allies
President
Bush
is
escorted
by
Israeli
President
Shimon
Peres, left, and Prime Minister Ehud
to join the United States in confront-
ing
his
visit
to
Israel.
ing the danger "before it was too
late'
Bush accused the Iranian regime
he would be very surprised if Bush does
decade.
of funding terrorists and extremists,
anything dramatic during the remainder
Nevertheless, the moderate Arab states
undermining peace in Lebanon, sending
of his term, such as initiating a dialogue
are highly ambivalent about war with
arms to the Taliban, seeking to intimidate
with the ayatollahs or launching a military Iran. Both Kuwait and the United Arab
its neighbors with alarming rhetoric, defy- strike.
Emirates told Bush they would not allow
ing the United Nations and destabilizing
Indeed, Gilboa says the president may
U.S. forces to use their territory as a
the entire region by refusing to be open
have ordered the NIE findings to get him- launching pad for a military strike.
about its nuclear program.
self off the hook on attacking Iran.
As for normalization between Israel
But after last month's National
But Roth Bart, an expert on U.S. Middle and the Arab world, Bush declared in
Intelligence Estimate, which concluded
East policy at Tel Aviv University, argues
Jerusalem last week that the Arab states
that Iran had suspended a clandestine
that the ME has been far less influential
should "reach out to Israel," describing
nuclear weapons program in 2003, it is
than is generally thought and that Bush
it as a step "that was long overdue" and
unclear what action the United States
still may attack Iran if he believes it is the
which would give Israel the confidence to
intends to take.
right thing to do.
make concessions to the Palestinians.
Bush's post-NIE Mideast diplomacy can
Bart points out that the NIE failed to
Indeed, Israel argues that things would
be read in two different ways: bolstering
convince the Europeans, the Arab states,
proceed much better if the Arabs make a
the moderate Arab coalition against Iran
the U.S. presidential candidates and, most reciprocal gesture of normalization toward
as part of an ongoing policy of contain-
important, Bush himself that the Iranians
Israel for each step Israel makes toward
ment through diplomatic and economic
have abandoned their drive toward nucle-
the Palestinians. The Arabs, however, see
sanctions or as laying the diplomatic
ar weapons.
normalization as a prize that Israel will be
groundwork for a possible military strike
Bush is committed to beefing up mod-
entitled to only after a peace treaty with
against Iranian nuclear installations
erate forces in the Persian Gulf region as
the Palestinians is complete.
before the president leaves office.
part of the effort to contain Iran. Most
So far, the Arabs have shown little sign
Israeli experts are divided over how far
significant, the United States intends to
of any change in this attitude.
Bush is likely to go.
supply Saudi Arabia with $20 billion in
The smattering of Israeli dealings in the
Eitan Gilboa of Bar-Ilan University says state-of-the-art weaponry over the coming Gulf countries is kept highly secret for fear See related story on the next page.

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January 17 • 2008

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