World
Mideast Skeptic
Policy analyst sees fundamental problem with new peace talks.
Alan Hitsky
Associate Editor
L
ast year, Jonathan Schanzer came
to Detroit to get married. Last
week, he came to discuss a dan-
gerous Middle East.
Schanzer is director of policy for the
Jewish Policy Center in Washington, D.C.,
and a former U.S. Treasury Department
counter-terrorism analyst. In the Detroit
area Nov. 28-29, he spoke to high school
students at Yeshivat Akiva in Southfield,
Frankel Jewish Academy in West
Bloomfield and Berkley High. He also
spoke to the news media and at a public
forum hosted at the Jewish Community
Center in West Bloomfield.
His main theme: Renewed Middle East
peace talks are a good thing, but they can
be dangerous.
Schanzer said peace talks in the area "do
not have a terrific track record ... but I
can't fault the Bush administration for try-
ing." The major stumbling block against
peace, he said, is that the Arab world still
refuses to recognize Israel. "Many don't
even recognize the name [Israel]. They call
it 'the Zionist entity:"
He recently published an article highly
criticized in the foreign policy community
that pointed out what happens to every
Israeli prime minister who starts negotiat-
ing about Jerusalem. "It inevitably leads to
his [political] demise," Schanzer said, in a
veiled warning to Israel's Ehud Olmert.
Historically, he said, Middle East peace
efforts are a vicious circle: Talks lead to
heightened expectations, which lead to
disappointing results and then to violence.
.
The effort in 2000 by
President Bill Clinton followed
that sequence. The Intifada
(Palestinian uprising) began,
according to Schanzer, because
the Palestinians did not get all
the Jerusalem neighborhoods
they were seeking in the Camp
David talks, nor was there an
agreement on the return of Arab
refugees.
The day after last week's
Annapolis summit concluded,
on.
penman mien
he pointed out, a Vatican offi-
Nieman
cial spoke of the Arabs' right of
return. Statements like this con-
tinue the cycle, Schanzer said.
Schanzer believes the Bush
administration can break the
cycle or at least manage it. He
credits President Bush for real-
Jonathan Schanzer spoke to Yeshivat Akiva juniors and seniors last week.
izing he had leverage with both
sides and taking the opportunity.
the Israeli jets that destroyed the Osirak
The role of Iran is of utmost concern,
"Bush has been an incredible friend
nuclear reactor reportedly flew over Saudi
he said. Iran is fighting the U.S. in Iraq
to Israel for seven years',' Schanzer said.
territory. Or Israel could fly over Turkey
by training and supplying the insurgents.
"And Bush saved [Mahmoud] Abbas' life
and Iraq to reach Iran.
and political career. Abbas needs weapons, It is the patron of Hamas in Gaza and
But Schanzer fears Iran's response: "You
materiel and money and he gets it all from Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah, he said,
can't hit everything," he said, "and you
has more rockets now than it had at the
the United States."
have to hope [the response] won't be the
start of the war with Israel in 2006 and it
But Schanzer is skeptical that anything
worst [nuclear] kind.
receives $100 million per year from Iran.
will change in the Middle East until there
"The hope is that we won't get to that.
Hamas in the Gaza Strip is no longer
is a "lasting vistory and a lasting defeat"
The hope is that Iran will change its
a rag-tag force, thanks to Iran, which, he
Israel, he believes, must have a crushing
stripes. But the Iranian leadership is very
said, has provided Hamas with night-
victory "so that the will of the Palestinians
dangerous. How do you deter someone
vision goggles, bullet-proof vests and
is broken and they give up the notion that
who thinks they will bring paradise to
high-caliber weaponry.
they can defeat Israel."
Earth?"
Schanzer discounts gossip in
Israel, he said, needs another 1948 or
Washington that the Bush administra-
1967 victory — "something like that,
tion would attack Iran after the 2008
but even on a grander scale" in order to
elections, during George W. Bush's last
achieve a lasting peace.
The Zionist Organization of America
two months as president. Despite major
has started a petition drive in sup-
concerns about Iran's nuclear program, he
port of a congressional resolution
said the U.S. is spread too thin in Iraq and
calling on Palestinian Authority
Afghanistan to take on Iran. "The U.S. is
President Mahmoud Abbas to
not in a position to do much:' he said.
He has worked as a research fel-
rescind 10 articles in the Fatah con-
Economic sanctions work, he said, but
low at the Middle East Forum and
stitution that call for the destruction
too many countries — like Russia and
the Washington Institute for Near
of Israel.
China — are unconcerned by Iran's rants
East Policy. Before joining the Jewish
According to Middle East analyst
against the West and won't back sanctions.
Policy Center last February, he worked
Jonathan Schanzer, "The Arab-
This might mean that Israel will be
as a counter-terrorism analyst for the
Israeli conflict can be summarized in
forced into another preemptive air strike
U.S. Justice Department.
one sentence: Arabs still refuse to
against the Iranian nuclear program, like
His visit to Detroit last week was
recognize the State of Israel." How
at Osirak in 1981.
sponsored by the Zionist Organization
can Israel trust people calling for her
"There might be more support for
of America Michigan Region,
destruction, he asked.
this in the Arab world than you think:'
StandWithUs-Michigan, the Jewish
To obtain copies of the petition,
Schanzer said. "The Sunni world is very
Community Center of Metropolitan
call ZOA Michigan public affairs co-
nervous about Iran. The Saudis and
Detroit and a number of individuals.
chair Mark Segal, (248) 208-2773.
Qatar are longtime enemies" of Iran and
Schanzer Profile
Jonathan Schanzer, 35, is a native
of Philadelphia. He married Detroiter
Elana Harris last year at Congregation
Beth Ahm. Harris is the daughter
of Ron and Marcia Harris of West
Bloomfield.
Schanzer holds a bachelor's degree
from Emory University in Atlanta,
earned an M.A. in Middle East studies
at Hebrew University of Jerusalem,
studied Arabic at the American
University in Cairo and is working on a
Ph.D. at Kings College, London.
A20
December 6 • 2007
Staff photo by Angie Bean
Irti;Rt !Atli RISC. Oak
Still ittli Pitt
iSiiittl'S
•
.SICiEETAM RIM. DUNI PRO
it STATE Iglf Pill ?SIMIAN
111111t1 TRIM U, CITitittIRIM4t
TERRORISM Sit
)SlittetS SitSTRUCTItik
Petition Drive