echelon's knowledge, the air force
chief would have been fired within
the hour."
Experts say that if fuel tanks
from Israeli aircraft were dropped
on Turkish territory, it probably
occurred because the planes were
operating near the Turkish border
and not because they took off from
bases in Turkey.
Still, most Israeli military ana-
lysts do not think that Syrian
President Bashar Assad will risk a
strike against Israel. They say if he
doesn't attack, he might lose face;
but if he does, he knows he could
lose his hold on power. Given that
stark choice, the analysts say, he
will probably bite the bullet.
But, the analysts warn, the pos-
sibility of a miscalculation or local
incident triggering a wider confla-
gration cannot be excluded.

Gaza Concern

In the south, the probability of a
military showdown is considered
higher. There the initiative will
likely be Israel's.
Some Israeli Cabinet ministers
believe it might be possible to avoid
a ground invasion if Israel finds a
way to punish Gazans for Kassam
attacks. Minister Without Portfolio
Haim Ramon, for example, pro-
poses that every time a Kassam is
fired, Israel should cut off electric-
ity to Gaza. Gazans would thus
be made to realize that rocketing
Israeli civilians carries a price tag
and might be deterred.
The generals, however, are not
enthusiastic about this approach.
They say punishing civilians in this
way would lead to an international
outcry, and Israel would be forced
to back down. Instead, they are
proposing short, sharp pin-point
attacks on Hamas militants and
rocket-launching sites.
Already this approach has had
some success: IDF forces captured
II Kassam rocket launchers last
week, and special forces kidnapped
Mawash Abu Khader, a leading
Hamas military operative, said to
have been involved in the kidnap
last year of Cpl. Gilad Shalit.
For now, the northern and
southern fronts are both tense. But
whereas Israeli analysts expect
the confrontation with Syria to
wind down, they predict Gaza
will erupt some time after the
planned regional peace summit in
November.

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OPEN SATURDAYS
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129990

September 13 • 2007 41

