I World

ANALYSIS

Double Trouble

On two fronts, Israel faces prospect
of military escalation.

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Leslie Susser
Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Jerusalem

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40

September 13 2007

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Brighton, MI 48116

A

fter months of talk of a "hot
summer" with Syria and a
long battle of attrition with
Palestinian Kassam rocket launchers
in Gaza, Israel finds itself facing the
prospect of a major military escala-
tion on two fronts.
In the north, Syria has warned that
it will retaliate at a time of its choos-
ing against the alleged Israeli pen-
etration of its airspace on the night
of Sept. 5-6. In the south, Defense
Minister Ehud Barak says a major
Israeli ground offensive in the Gaza
Strip is "only a matter of time."
Israeli officials refused to confirm
or deny whether the alleged Israeli Air
Force overflight of strategically sensi-
tive areas in northern Syria actually
took place. But if they hoped their
silence would defuse the situation,
they were mistaken. It seems the affair
could lead to repercussions not only
with Syria but with Israel's close ally
Turkey, too.
A jettisoned fuel tank believed to
be from an Israeli F-15 was found in
Turkish territory near the border with
Syria, and the Turks have asked for an
explanation.
In the south, it is clear what Israel
would hope to achieve by a ground
offensive: putting a stop to the Kassam
rocket attacks on Israeli civilians and
smashing the radical Hamas' huge,
ongoing military buildup in Gaza.
In the north, the reasons for the aer-
ial operation remain a mystery. There
are any number of theories.
Some Arab commentators suggest
that Israel was testing an aerial route
to Iran, whose nuclear aspirations
are seen as a critical threat to Israel.
Others suggest that it was testing new
Syrian air defenses in a highly sensi-
tive strategic area.

Testing Defenses?

The air defense theory has some cir-
cumstantial support. According to the
centrist Russian daily Nezavissimaya
Gazeta, Syria started receiving sophis-

ticated, Russian-made Pantsir S-1E
ground-to-air missiles a few weeks
ago. The Russians agreed to sell Syria
50 Pantsir S-1E systems earlier in the
year for an estimated $900 million.
The fact that Russia was quick to
complain about the alleged Israeli
incursion adds weight to the Pantsir
theory. Russia expressed "extreme
concern" at the Israeli violation of
Syria's air space and called on Israel to
respect international law.
According to this theory, the sig-
nificance of the overflight — if it took
place — is to show that even with
the Pantsirs in place, sensitive Syrian
strategic installations are vulnerable
to Israeli airstrikes.
The Syrians say the Israeli
warplanes came in from the
Mediterranean over the port of
Latakia, flying deep into northern
Syria over Tel el-Abiad and Kamishli
on the Syrian border with Turkey. This
is the general area in which Syria has
deliberately located chemical weapons
and Scud-D rocket factories — to
keep them as far from Israel as pos-
sible and out of Israeli Air Force range.
Syria's major oil fields at Deir e-Zour
are nearby as well.
The Syrians have been trying to
play down the significance of the
Israeli achievement.
Mohammad Habash, a parliament
member who often speaks for the
regime, claimed that the Israeli planes
had actually planned to attack Syrian
targets, but had been beaten off by
Syria's air defenses. He said the fact
that Israel was not saying anything
about the operation proved that it had
failed.
Israeli experts argue, however, that
Turkey never would have sanctioned
an Israeli violation of Syrian airspace
from its territory.
"The new Islamist Turkish regime
has very good relations with Syria,"
said Israel's former foreign ministry
director-general, Alon Liel, an expert
on Turkey. "If any military group in
Turkey asked the political echelon for
permission to do a thing like that, the
answer would have been no. And if the
Turkish air force had approved some-
thing like that without the political

