IN Thoughts A MONTHLY MIX OF IDEAS A Flag Of Freedom I ndependence Day is approaching and I am planning to fly a very special flag on that day. It was a flag given to me by U.S. Rep. Sander Levin, D-Royal Oak, in recognition of my work educating people about the Holocaust. I am a Holocaust survivor, and I published my memoirs in a book titled When Hope Prevails. I speak to groups at our Holocaust Memorial Center-Zekelman Family Campus in Farmington Hills, but was invited to appear at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., as well. It was a wonderful experience, and I was able to give back: The proceeds from my book not only benefit our local Holocaust center, but also the national one as well in addition to the Paper Clip Holocaust project in Whitwell, Tenn., and victims of the Katrina hurricanes. While I was in Washington, Congressman Levin invited me and my wife, Hyla, to his office and presented me with a flag flown for a day on the Capitol Dome as well as a certificate rec- ognizing me for my involvement in Holocaust education and other endeavors. Congressman Levin was very gener- ous with his time and even showed me his refrigerator filled with "goodies" from Michigan delis and bakeries such as rye bread and rugelach. This reminded me of the wonderful visit to Oslo, Norway, in August, 1998 where my wife and I were welcomed by the late Ambassador David Hermelin of Bingham Farms, and his wife, Doreen. After lunch, David also showed me his stash of Michigan treats, including salamis from the Stage Deli of West Bloomfield. I will never forget the mezuzah on the doorpost, which filled me with pride. I was told this was the only American embassy in the world display- ing this Jewish symbol. I am grateful for Congressman Levin's thoughtfulness and will proudly display my American flag on July 4. God bless America! I I Sam Offen is a West Bloomfield resident. When Hope Prevails, Sam Offen, P.O. Box 250302, West Bloomfield, MI 48322-0302, ggoffen@yahoo.com . Soft cover, $12.95 plus $3 for ship- ping; hard cover, $18.95 plus $3 for shipping. Above: In Washington, Rep. Levin (standing) with Sam Offen, holding the certificate that he received from the congressman. Israeli Jets Vs. Iranian Nukes Philadelphia B arring a "catastrophic development;' Middle East Newsline reports, George Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran's cooperation "needed for a with- drawal [of U.S. forces] from Iraq." If correct, this implies the Jewish state stands alone against a regime that threatens to "wipe Israel off the map" and is building the nuclear weapons to do so. Israeli leaders are hinting that their patience is running out; Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz just warned that "diplomatic efforts should bear results by the end of 2007:' Can the Israel Defense Forces in fact disrupt Iran's nuclear program? Top-secret analyses from intelligence agencies normally reply to such a ques- tion. But talented outsiders, using open sources, can also try their hand. Whitney Raas and Austin Long stud- ied this problem at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and published their impressive analysis, "Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities," in the journal International Security. 20 June 28 • 2007 Raas and Long focus exclu- sively on feasibility, not political desirability or strategic ramifica- tions: Were the Israeli national command to decide to damage the Iranian infrastructure, could its forces accomplish this mis- sion? The authors consider five com- ponents of a successful strike: •Intelligence: To impede the production of fissile material requires incapacitating only three facilities of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. In ascending order of importance, these are: the heavy water plant and plutonium production reactors under construction at Arak, a uranium conversion facility in Isfahan and a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Destroying the Natanz facility in particu- lar, they note, "is critical to impeding Iran's progress toward nuclearization." • Ordnance: To damage all three facili- ties with reasonable confidence requires — given their size, their being under- ground, the weapons available to the Israeli forces, and other factors — twenty- four 5,000-pound weapons and twenty- four 2,000-pound weapons. •Platforms: Noting the "odd amalga- mation of technologies" available to the Iranians and the limitations of their fight- er planes and ground defenses to stand up to the high-tech Israeli air force, Raas- Long calculate that the Israel Defense Forces needs a relatively small strike pack- age of 25 F-15Is and 25 F-16Is. •Routes: Israeli jets can reach their tar- gets via three paths: Turkey to the north, Jordan and Iraq in the middle or Saudi Arabia to the south. In terms of fuel and cargo, the distances in all three cases are manageable. •Defense forces: Rather than predict the outcome of an Israeli-Iranian confronta- tion, the authors calculate how many out of the 50 Israeli planes would have to reach their three targets for the opera- tion to succeed. They figure 24 planes must reach Natanz, six to Isfahan and five to Arak, or 35 all together. Turned around, that means the Iranian defenders minimally must stop 16 of 50 planes, or one-third of the strike force. The authors consider this attrition rate "considerable" for Natanz and "almost unimaginable" for the other two targets. In all, Raas-Long find that the relent- less modernization of Israel's air force gives it "the capability to destroy even well-hardened targets in Iran with some degree of confidence." Comparing an Iranian operation to Israel's 1981 attack on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, which was a complete success, they find this one would appear to be no more risky" than the earlier one. The great question mark hanging over CC the operation, one that the authors do not speculate about, is whether any of the Turkish, Jordanian, American or Saudi governments would acquiesce to Israeli penetration of their air spaces. (Iraq, recall, is under American control). Unless the Israelis win advance permission to cross these territories, their jets might have to fight their way to Iran. More than any other factor, this one imperils the entire project. (The IDF could reduce this problem by flying along borders, for example, the Turkey-Syria one, permitting both countries en route to claim Israeli planes were in the other fellow's air space.) Raas-Long imply but do not state that the IDF could reach Kharg Island, through which over 90 percent of Iranian oil is exported, heavily damaging the Iranian economy. That Israeli forces have "a reasonable chance of success" unilaterally to destroy key Iranian nuclear facilities could help deter Tehran from proceeding with its weapon program. The Raas-Long study, therefore, makes a diplomatic deal more likely. Its results deserve the widest possible dissemina- tion. ri Daniel Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org), director of the Middle East Forum, taught for two years at the U.S. Naval War College.