IN Thoughts
A MONTHLY MIX OF IDEAS
A Flag Of Freedom
I
ndependence Day is
approaching and I am
planning to fly a very
special flag on that day. It was
a flag given to me by U.S. Rep.
Sander Levin, D-Royal Oak,
in recognition of my work
educating people about the
Holocaust.
I am a Holocaust survivor,
and I published my memoirs
in a book titled When Hope Prevails.
I speak to groups at our Holocaust
Memorial Center-Zekelman Family
Campus in Farmington Hills, but was
invited to appear at the U.S. Holocaust
Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C.,
as well. It was a wonderful experience,
and I was able to give back: The proceeds
from my book not only benefit our local
Holocaust center, but also the national
one as well in addition to the Paper Clip
Holocaust project in Whitwell,
Tenn., and victims of the Katrina
hurricanes.
While I was in Washington,
Congressman Levin invited me
and my wife, Hyla, to his office
and presented me with a flag
flown for a day on the Capitol
Dome as well as a certificate rec-
ognizing me for my involvement
in Holocaust education and other
endeavors.
Congressman Levin was very gener-
ous with his time and even showed me
his refrigerator filled with "goodies" from
Michigan delis and bakeries such as rye
bread and rugelach. This reminded me
of the wonderful visit to Oslo, Norway,
in August, 1998 where my wife and I
were welcomed by the late Ambassador
David Hermelin of Bingham Farms, and
his wife, Doreen. After lunch, David also
showed me his stash of Michigan treats,
including salamis from the Stage Deli of
West Bloomfield. I will never forget the
mezuzah on the doorpost, which filled me
with pride. I was told this was the only
American embassy in the world display-
ing this Jewish symbol.
I am grateful for Congressman Levin's
thoughtfulness and will proudly display
my American flag on July 4. God bless
America! I I
Sam Offen is a West Bloomfield resident.
When Hope Prevails, Sam Offen, P.O.
Box 250302, West Bloomfield, MI
48322-0302, ggoffen@yahoo.com .
Soft cover, $12.95 plus $3 for ship-
ping; hard cover, $18.95 plus $3 for
shipping.
Above: In Washington, Rep. Levin
(standing) with Sam Offen, holding the
certificate that he received from the
congressman.
Israeli Jets Vs. Iranian Nukes
Philadelphia
B
arring a "catastrophic
development;' Middle
East Newsline
reports, George Bush has
decided not to attack Iran. An
administration source explains
that Washington deems Iran's
cooperation "needed for a with-
drawal [of U.S. forces] from
Iraq."
If correct, this implies the Jewish
state stands alone against a regime that
threatens to "wipe Israel off the map" and
is building the nuclear weapons to do
so. Israeli leaders are hinting that their
patience is running out; Deputy Prime
Minister Shaul Mofaz just warned that
"diplomatic efforts should bear results by
the end of 2007:'
Can the Israel Defense Forces in fact
disrupt Iran's nuclear program?
Top-secret analyses from intelligence
agencies normally reply to such a ques-
tion. But talented outsiders, using
open sources, can also try their hand.
Whitney Raas and Austin Long stud-
ied this problem at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology and published
their impressive analysis, "Osirak Redux?
Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy
Iranian Nuclear Facilities," in the journal
International Security.
20
June 28 • 2007
Raas and Long focus exclu-
sively on feasibility, not political
desirability or strategic ramifica-
tions: Were the Israeli national
command to decide to damage
the Iranian infrastructure, could
its forces accomplish this mis-
sion?
The authors consider five com-
ponents of a successful strike:
•Intelligence: To impede the
production of fissile material requires
incapacitating only three facilities of
Iran's nuclear infrastructure. In ascending
order of importance, these are: the heavy
water plant and plutonium production
reactors under construction at Arak, a
uranium conversion facility in Isfahan and
a uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Destroying the Natanz facility in particu-
lar, they note, "is critical to impeding Iran's
progress toward nuclearization."
• Ordnance: To damage all three facili-
ties with reasonable confidence requires
— given their size, their being under-
ground, the weapons available to the
Israeli forces, and other factors — twenty-
four 5,000-pound weapons and twenty-
four 2,000-pound weapons.
•Platforms: Noting the "odd amalga-
mation of technologies" available to the
Iranians and the limitations of their fight-
er planes and ground defenses to stand
up to the high-tech Israeli air force, Raas-
Long calculate that the Israel Defense
Forces needs a relatively small strike pack-
age of 25 F-15Is and 25 F-16Is.
•Routes: Israeli jets can reach their tar-
gets via three paths: Turkey to the north,
Jordan and Iraq in the middle or Saudi
Arabia to the south. In terms of fuel and
cargo, the distances in all three cases are
manageable.
•Defense forces: Rather than predict the
outcome of an Israeli-Iranian confronta-
tion, the authors calculate how many out
of the 50 Israeli planes would have to
reach their three targets for the opera-
tion to succeed. They figure 24 planes
must reach Natanz, six to Isfahan and
five to Arak, or 35 all together. Turned
around, that means the Iranian defenders
minimally must stop 16 of 50 planes, or
one-third of the strike force. The authors
consider this attrition rate "considerable"
for Natanz and "almost unimaginable" for
the other two targets.
In all, Raas-Long find that the relent-
less modernization of Israel's air force
gives it "the capability to destroy even
well-hardened targets in Iran with some
degree of confidence." Comparing an
Iranian operation to Israel's 1981 attack
on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, which
was a complete success, they find this one
would appear to be no more risky" than
the earlier one.
The great question mark hanging over
CC
the operation, one that the authors do
not speculate about, is whether any of the
Turkish, Jordanian, American or Saudi
governments would acquiesce to Israeli
penetration of their air spaces. (Iraq,
recall, is under American control). Unless
the Israelis win advance permission to
cross these territories, their jets might
have to fight their way to Iran.
More than any other factor, this one
imperils the entire project. (The IDF
could reduce this problem by flying along
borders, for example, the Turkey-Syria
one, permitting both countries en route
to claim Israeli planes were in the other
fellow's air space.)
Raas-Long imply but do not state that
the IDF could reach Kharg Island, through
which over 90 percent of Iranian oil is
exported, heavily damaging the Iranian
economy.
That Israeli forces have "a reasonable
chance of success" unilaterally to destroy
key Iranian nuclear facilities could help
deter Tehran from proceeding with its
weapon program.
The Raas-Long study, therefore, makes
a diplomatic deal more likely. Its results
deserve the widest possible dissemina-
tion. ri
Daniel Pipes (www.DanielPipes.org), director of
the Middle East Forum, taught for two years at
the U.S. Naval War College.