Civil War
Hamas' takeover in
Gaza: Here's what
may lie ahead.
Ben Harris
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
New York
T
he internecine violence between
Hamas and Fatah has escalated
into what some are calling a civil
war. It's a battle not only for control of the
Palestinian Authority, but more signifi-
cantly over ideology and the future dispo-
sition of a Palestinian state.
Will it be secular and pragmatic, or rig-
idly Islamist in the vein of the Taliban?
Though llamas won elections in
January 2006, its efforts to govern have
been compromised by international sanc-
tions against the Palestinian government.
These sanctions resulted from Hamas'
refusal to recognize Israel and abide by
previous agreements. That has led to
United Jewish
Fouixiation
cf MeiropcOan
mounting frustration, exacerbated by out-
siders like Iran, whose meddling in Gaza
is said to be on the rise.
"Hamas was frustrated because it was
denied its victory:' said Gidi Grinstein of
Israel's Refut Institute. "It won in the elec-
tions. It won in the ballot. But it wasn't
allowed to govern."
With Hamas virtually taking over the
Gaza Strip after a week of bloody violence
between the P.A. partners, here are some
questions and answers about what may
lie ahead for the Palestinian groups, Israel
and the region.
What's At Stake?
Middle East experts are broadly in agree-
ment that the stakes are significant. If
Hamas' victory in Gaza turns out to be
total, it will signify the end of efforts to
bring about a genuine and comprehensive
settlement with Israel.
For all the faults of the Fatah leader-
ship under President Mahmoud Abbas,
some sort of accommodation with Israel
remained a possibility.
But with Hamas, whose charter remains
committed to the destruction of Israel,
most experts say no long-term accord is
possible.
"Hamas' charter remains all of Palestine,
from Jordan to the Mediterranean, an end
state that precludes the existence of Israel,"
said Ilan Berman, vice president for policy
at the American Foreign Policy Council.
"There is no discussion about changing
the Hamas charter."
What Can Be Done?
The short answer: not much. If the
Palestinians drift further toward the total
Islamization of their society and their
cause, Jerusalem and Washington will
be tempted to cordon off the Palestinian
areas and contain the problem — a solu-
tion likely to be only marginally effective
at best, given the interdependence of
Israeli and Palestinian societies.
Grinstein suggests that if Fatah can con-
solidate its control over the West Bank, leav-
ing Gaza to Hamas, it could create the pos-
sibility for a dialogue and, in the best-case
scenario, establish a stable and reasonably
prosperous West Bank as an alternative to
the chaos and desperation of Gaza.
It is in Israeli and American interests to
effect such a scenario, either by pouring
resources into protecting the West Bank or
pressuring Egypt to finally halt the flow of
weapons into Gaza.
Several analysts note that Egyptian and
Israeli interests may be converging here, as
neither country wants to see an extremist
entity, supported by Iran and allied with the
Islamist opposition in Egypt, strengthening
its hold in Gaza.
Shoshana Bryen, director of special
projects at the Jewish Institute for National
Security Affairs, suggests Washington
should go one step further and announce
it is no longer working to set up the condi-
tions for Palestinian independence.
"The conditions don't exist," Bryen said.
"This is a huge emergency."
What Regional Implications?
It may be that Hamas' rise will force the
hands of the Arab states.
Besides the prospect of a greater
Egyptian effort on weapons smuggling, a
more prominent political or security role
for Jordan in the West Bank may become a
real possibility.
Arab states that historically have
claimed Israel to be the principal cause
of regional instability may move more
toward embracing the view that the spread
of Islamic radicalism, sponsored by Iran,
is a greater danger and will be more ame-
nable to steps to contain it.
JEWISH FEDERATION OF METROPOLITAN DETROIT
UNITED JEWISH FOUNDATION OF METROPOLITAN DETROIT
COMBINED ANNUAL MEETING
)ewish
Federation
of Metropolitan Detroit
Notice is hereby given that the Annual Meeting of the
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Notice is hereby given that the Annual Meeting of the
Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Detroit
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Thursday, September 20
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Jewish Community Center of Metropolitan Detroit
David & Marion Handleman Hall & Auditorium
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Jewish Community Center of Metropolitan Detroit
David & Marion Handleman Hall & Auditorium
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Eugene & Marcia Applebaum Jewish Community Campus
West Bloomfield, Michigan
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Foundation and filed with the Chief Executive Officer not less than 45 days prior to the date of
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Filings should be sent to:
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Robert P. Aronson, Chief Executive Officer
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Governors by petition signed by not less than one hundred (100) members of the Jewish
Federation and filed with the Chief Executive Officer not less than 45 days prior to the date of
the Annual Meeting. Only one person may be nominated in each petition, and no nominations
shall be valid unless the nominee shall have consented to be a candidate in writing either in the
petition or in a separate written document filed with the Chief Executive Officer not less than
45 days prior to the date of the Annual Meeting.
Filings should be sent to:
Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Detroit
Robert P. Aronson, Chief Executive Officer
P.O. Box 2030, Bloomfield Hills, MI 48303-2030
1266320
June 21 . 2007
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