World

ANALYSIS

nternational Key

southern Lebanon of an interna-
tional peacekeeping force to help
the Lebanese army deploy there.
This could be a staged process:
First, as hostilities taper off, a
0
0
beefing up of the United Nations'
interim forces, UNIFIL, already in
the area; and later, once there is a
stable cease-fire, the dispatch of
a larger force with a considerably
wider mandate.
Israel argues that the size,
composition and mandate of this'
second force will be crucial. Israel
would prefer a multinational force
under, say, French command,
rather than a U.N. force subject
to the organization's hamstrung
bureaucracy.
Israel believes the force's
mandate should be to help the
Lebanese army keep southern
Lebanon free of armed militants,
stop the flow of arms to Hezbollah
across the Syrian border, help
disarm Hezbollah and prevent
any recurrence of rocket fire into
northern Israel.
In order to carry out its mis-
That's
one
of
the
main
reasons
A
dramatic
change
on
the
Leslie•Susser
sion,
the force would have to be
why
the
Lebanese
side
—
both
ground
or
growing
war
weariness
Jewish Telegraphic Agency
made up of 10,000-20,000 well-
Hezbollah and the Beirut govern-
on either side could change things.
trained troops, with authority to
But, for now, the -fighting seems set ment — oppose it.
Jerusalem
open fire if necessary
Initially, the Lebanese govern-
to continue and even intensify.
The issue ofthe international -
ment seemed inclined to accept
Besides securing the release
s the international com-
force is complicated by differences
a solution that would enable it
of the two soldiers abducted by
munity tries to find
between Israel and the Lebanon
to move its forces to the border
Hezbollah on July 12, precipitating
a formula to stop the
with Israel and disarm Hezbollah. over the timing. Israel also says its
the war, Israel's main goal is the
fierce fighting between Israel and
troops must remain in southern
But with Hezbollah continuing to
removal of the rocket threat on
Hezbollah, it faces what could
rocket Israeli towns and cities and Lebanon until the international
northern Israel. It hopes to achieve
prove to be an insoluble conun-
. gaining more support in Lebanon, force moves in to replace them
this through the creation of a
drum: how to get Hezbollah to
— since Hezbollah is sure to
demilitarized buffer zone in south- the government is even more
accept its own military demise,
exploit any vacuum- to move back
ern Lebanon, disarming Hezbollah reluctant than usual to confront
. or, alternatively, how to persuade
into the area.
the militants.
and banning future supplies of
Israel to make do with less.
For its part, Hezbollah says there
Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's
arms to any force in Lebanon other
Backed by Syria and Iran and
will
be no cease-fire until all Israeli
main backers, also are
still able to lob hundreds Z •
forces
in Lebanon withdraw.
determined not to allow
of Katyusha rockets
.
But
there's a more fundamental
a
cease-fire
that
might
<
into northern Israel,
question:
Assuming peacekeepers
compromise
what
they
g
Hezbollah shows little
do
mow
in,
will they be able to do
see
as
their
wider
regional
sign of agreeing to an
the
job?
Israel
has not had good
interests.
American-French effort °-
experiences
with
international
On
Sunday,
July
6,
ahead
to stop the war and moves
peacekeepers
in
the
past.
of
an
Arab
League
emer-
that would neutralize the
The
United
Nations
Truce
gency
meeting
in
Beirut,
Shiite militia as a fighting
Supervision
and
Observer
force,
Syria's
foreign
minister,
force.
which was deployed on the border
Walid Muallem, arrived
Israel, with the option
with Egypt after Israel's 1948 War
in the Lebanese capital to
of widening the ground
A French peacekeeper with the U.N. Interim
of Independence, pulled out at
ensure that the Lebanese
war to put most of the
Force in Lebanon points his gun at Shiite Amal
the first sign of trouble in 1967
did not buckle under
Hezbollah rockets out of
militia in Marrakeh, Lebanon, in 1996.
before the outbreak of the Six-Day
international pressure for
range, opposes any cease-
War. Likewise, UNIFIL has proved
an end to hostilities.
than the elected government.
fire that would leave the radical
A key element of the American- unable to stop repeated terrorist
All three measures are included
organization's military wing
attacks on Israel, often standing by
in the American-French initiative. French plan is the dispatch to
intact. •

As U.N. seeks Mideast cease-fire,
focus stays on international force.

A

iN

while terrorists operate right next
to U.N. positions, confident that
Israel will feel unable to respond.
Some Israeli analysts hope that
this time things will be different,
with a well-armed, Western-led
multinational fofce aware of the
strategic importance of a stable
Lebanon as a bulwark against
Iran's drive for nuclear power and
regional hegemony.
Others, hoWever, argue that
precisely because of the wider
regional implications, Iran and
Syria will never allow a stable,
Western-leaning Lebanon to
emerge. They maintain that no
international force will be able .
to disarm Hezbollah and that
Iranian- and Syrian-sponsored
Hezbollah terrorism probably
would be turned against the
force itself — just as, in the early
1980s, Hezbollah launched a .
campaign of terrorism to drive
out American and French peace-
keepers.
These analysts maintain that
the best hope for a stable Lebanon
is a deal with Syria. They hold that
as soon as the international force
is in place, American and Israeli
approaches should be made
to Damascus with the aim of
detaching Syria from the Iranian •
axis, establishing a Syrian buffer
between Iran and Hezbollah.
The next few days could be
crucial. The Lebanese govern-
ment is working to amend the
U.S.-French draft in its favor. But
as long as Hezbollah continues to
fire rockets across the border on
a daily basis, the Israeli govern:
ment remains skeptical about the
chances of a diplomatic break-
through.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
reportedly has decided to give
diplomacy a few more days and,
if nothing comes of it, to widen
the scope of Israel's land offensive,
with a view to putting a stop to
the Katyusha bombardments by
military means.
That could concentrate minds
in Lebanon and lead to a cease-
fire agreement. If not, it will
mean a new and much wider war
against Hezbollah that will put
off the diplomatic countdown for
some weeks yet. ❑

August 10 • 2006

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