save the date..... Yad Ezra's 16th annual fundraising event Arab fertility rate had dropped even further, echoing dramatic drops reported throughout the Middle East, where most nations display fertility levels of about three births per woman. And Israeli Arab women now in their 20s won't necessarily repeat the childbearing characteristics of their older counterparts. Israeli Arab women having fewer children in their late teens and 20s might also have fewer children in their 30s than do today's 30-year-olds, who still display the fertility characteris- tics of earlier generations. In contrast, Israeli Jewish women in their 20s who are having more kids might carry that choice into their 30s at rates above those of current 30-year-olds. Forecasting tomorrow's popula- tion growth from yesterday's rates is a common mistake. In 2000, the United Nations' Population Division predicted the world's population as 12 billion people by 2050. Four years later, they dramatically revised the fore- cast, and now predict that today's global population of 6.3 billion will plateau at 9 billion by 2050. The Gallup organization recently published the results of a survey that showed a convergence in desired family size among Jews and Arabs west of the Jordan River. The ideal family size has fallen to 5.1 for Arabs in Gaza and 4.5 in the West Bank. The desired family size among both Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs is now 3.7. While Gallup found no difference in the preferred number of children among younger Israelis, younger West Bankers, 15 to 19, believe an ideal family should have 4.1 chil- dren, compared to relatives over age 50, who believe the ideal family should have 5.0 children. The convergence in desired birth activity among Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs, and particularly among younger West Bankers, is likely to further impact the future demographic outlook for Israel and the West Bank, where Jews now form a two-thirds majority. 111 Ellen and Jim Labes, honorees Wednesday, October 4, 2006 strolling dinner and short program Congregation Shaarey Zedek YAD EZRA feearg Mile Jewish Hwy for more information call 248 548 3663 check us out online! www.yadezra.org A A A_ Tour our newly furnished model suites at Sunrise of Bloomfield Reserve the available suite of your choice today Welcome to Sunrise Assisted Living...a place where families will discover excellence in senior care. Here, we'll provide a full spectrum of assisted living services— from light support to daily comprehensive care, including medication supervision and continence management. Compassionate caregivers will offer gentle assistance tailored to individual needs and preferences Studies in Israel. The studies can be found at pademographics.com. Select suites at Sunrise of Bloomfield are still available. Take a tour and reserve yours today! Ask about our specialized Reminiscence Neighborhood for those with memory impairment. SUNRISE Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic in the warmth and comfort of a gracious home- 24 hours a day. Models Are Now Open—Visitors Welcome Monday-Friday: 9am-5pm • Saturday & Sunday: 10am-4pm • Evenings by appointment ASSISTED LIVING ® Michael L. Wise are authors of "Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap," published by 111 Sunrise of Bloomfield 248 972 0800 - - EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY Assisted Living, Alzheimer's Care 2080 South Telegraph Road, Bloomfield Hills , MI 48302 For more information and a FREE online newsletter, visit www.sunriseseniorliving.com 1119740 May 18 s 2006 27