I

World

NEWS ANALYSIS

Election Countdown

With

Leslie Susser

Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Kadima still

Jerusalem

W

ith Israeli elections less
than a month away, the
leaders of the three
main parties are under mounting
pressure.
Acting Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert of Kadima, well ahead in
his bid for re-election, has
become the target of vicious
campaigns by Labor and Likud.
As they continue to trail badly in
the polls, there are rumblings in
both Likud and Labor about
replacing their prime-ministerial
candidates, Benjamin Netanyahu
and Amir Peretz, before the
March 28 vote.
Olmert, who became prime
minister because of Ariel
Sharon's debilitating stroke in
January, has been singled out by
the rival parties as Kadima's
weak underbelly. The Likud is
attacking him as inexperienced
and irresolute in the face of the
fundamentalist threat posed by
Hamas and Iran.
Likud copywriters have
dubbed him "Smolmert," a play
on his name and the Hebrew
word for left wing, and argue that
with him at the helm, Israelis
cannot feel safe.
Labor is attacking what it
alleges as Olmert's corruption.
Labor campaign ads highlight the
acting prime minister's expensive
tastes, and imply that although he
has never been convicted, stan-
dards of public conduct disquali-
fy him from high office.

Corruption Charge
A spate of recent newspaper arti-
cles has been fueling the Labor
campaign. A seven-page spread
in the Ha'aretz weekend maga-
zine, entitled "With a Little Hap
From His Friends," accuses
Olmert of being soft on party
activists who have broken the
law, of having rich donor-friends
and of skirting the bounds of
legality himself on more than
one occasion.

out in front,

Labor and

Likud

Amir Peretz

It highlights a case
that goes back to the
1988 elections in which
Olmert was the Likud's
election treasurer and the
party employed a system of
covering up illegal dona-
tions by providing
donors with receipts
for services never
rendered.
Olmert was
indicted, but
claimed he had
only been responsi-
ble for donations
abroad, and in 1997
was acquitted of any
wrongdoing.
The article fails to pin
on Olmert any actual vio-
lation of the law, but paints a
picture of a smooth operator
stretching legality to its limits.
Two more recent allegations
could have greater impact.
Olmert is accused of conducting
a fictitious arbitration between
the Betar Jerusalem soccer club
and one of its top administra-
tors, enabling the administrator
to keep $1.1 million he said the
club owed him. Olmert, accord-
ing to the allegations, signed the
arbitration deal without check-
ing any of the facts or whether
other creditors should have had
priority.
There are also questions about
the sale of Olmert's Jerusalem
home to American billionaire S.
Daniel Abraham, a Middle East
peace activist and donor to

target

Olmert.

er

Olmert's political campaigns.
Was the price of $2.69 million
too high, a means of camouflag-
ing a huge political donation?
And is the rent the Olmerts are
paying to Abraham, $2,250 a
month, to stay on while their
new house is being renovated,
too low, and tantamount to
another illegal gift?
Jerusalem estate agents are
unanimous about the house
price being fair, but most think
the rent is too low. If so, the
question is whether the figure
was reached in a genuine busi-
ness negotiation or was it part of
a deliberate kickback?
State Comptroller Micha

the most despised body in Israeli
politics, the Central Committee
has the power to elect and influ-
ence the party's Knesset mem-
bers.
If Netanyahu succeeds, his
polls show the Likud would get
another six seats. Other polls,
however, show a gain of only one.
If he fails and the committee
retains its power, the Likud could
crash to single figures.
Amir Peretz is similarly under
-2 pressure in Labor. Many in the
party believe its relatively poor
Benjamin
showing stems from his failure to
Netanyahu
come across as a genuine prime
ministerial candidate.
Lindenstrauss was
Moshe Shachal, a former
expected to issue an
Labor Cabinet minister, said
opinion this week. Kadima openly over the weekend: "I may
strategists say if, as seems
not vote Labor; I have no confi-
likely, he finds no wrongdo-
dence in Amir Peretz." There is
ing, the corruption campaign
talk in Labor of Ofir Pines-Paz or
could boomerang and actu-
Avishai Braverman possibly
ally help Olmert's cause.
replacing Peretz before the elec-
Indeed, so far there is
tion. Again this is unlikely but
no indication that either almost certainly presages a lead-
the Likud or the Labor
ership struggle as soon as the
anti-Olmert campaign
election is over.
is having any effect.
In their desperation, some in
Polls last weekend
Likud and Labor are talking
show Kadima for the
about a possible coalition that
seventh week running
would include them, the far right
with around 40 of the
wing and the religious parties to
120 Knesset seats, Labor
keep Kadima out of office. The
,,mac with 20 and Likud with 15.
hope is that as an opposition
party, Kadima, only founded
Internal Fights
recently by Sharon as a centrist
Those figures are exacerbating
alternative, would unravel.
tensions in both the Likud and
But for Labor to join forces
Labor camps. Internal polls in
with Likud and the right in that
theLikud show that the party
way would be anathema to most
would win two more seats with
of its leaders, especially Amir
former foreign minister Silvan
Peretz, who seems to rule it out.
Shalom as leader instead of
On the contrary, if as election
Netanyahu. This has led to some
day approaches there is no
still-underground calls for a
change in the polls, a more likely
switch in the leadership before
scenario will be for Labor and
the election. That is highly
Likud to vie over which of them
unlikely. But if the Likud under
will join a Kadima-led coalition.
Netanyahu gets less than 20
The two parties will likely tell
seats, Shalom will almost cer-
prospective voters that they need
tainly challenge him as soon as
to be the second-biggest party to
the post-election dust settles.
be sure of a place in the coali-
In the meantime, Netanyahu is tion, and to have as many seats
considering one last desperate
as possible to have real influence
throw of the dice — drastically
on the new government's direc-
curbing the power of the Likud
tion.
Central Committee. Considered

❑

March 2 a 2006

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